When the season started a few weeks ago, the New York Yankees were clear favourites to win the AL East over the Boston Red Sox.
At the time, the Yankees looked like a potential powerhouse, while Boston’s starting rotation included relative unknowns in Hector Velazquez and Brian Johnson. Even former Cy Young winners David Price and Rick Porcello looked like question marks.
And yet it hasn’t taken long for the Red Sox to dispel the notion that they’re simply fighting for a wild card. Even after getting no-hit by Sean Manaea Saturday and losing again to Oakland Sunday, Boston arrives in Toronto for three games against the Blue Jays with the best record in baseball: 17-4.
That start has allowed Boston to pass New York in the standings and become the clear AL East favourite, according to the latest playoff odds. So how exactly have they been playing so well? As with most streaking teams, they have a lot going right for them…
DOMINANT ROTATION
Chris Sale’s off to another great start, with a 1.86 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 29 innings. He’s not alone, though, as Porcello (1.40 ERA) and Price (2.93 ERA) appear to be well on their way to bouncing back from rough seasons.
At the back of the rotation, injuries delayed the season debuts of Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez, but replacements Velazquez and Johnson delivered and Rodriguez has been tough to square up of late.
All told, Boston’s starters have combined for a 2.75 ERA with 208 strikeouts in 193 innings. The Red Sox will send Porcello, Rodriguez and Sale to the mound in Toronto opposite J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada.
CHANGE AT WORK
Rodriguez already has more swings and misses (47) than anyone on the Red Sox except Sale, even though he has only made three starts since returning from the DL. One reason for that: his change-up has been particularly effective at generating swings and misses when he locates it down and away to righties.
Source: Baseball Savant
BEST LINEUP IN BASEBALL?
This series features the two most prolific offences in baseball to this point in the season, and while it’s something of a surprise to see the Blue Jays scoring so often with Josh Donaldson sidelined, there’s reason to believe the Red Sox will continue putting up lopsided numbers all year. To this point that’s certainly been the case, as they’ve scored at least seven runs in more than half of their games.
Leadoff hitter Mookie Betts has six homers with more walks than strikeouts, and the Boston lineup doesn’t get much easier after that. Even with Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts sidelined, the Red Sox have plenty of offensive depth thanks to Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, all of whom are off to strong starts at the plate.
It’s not just that the Red Sox play at Fenway, either. By wRC+, which adjusts for league and park effects, they’re second in overall offence behind only the Athletics. This doesn’t look like a fun series for Blue Jays pitchers.
BETTS VS. FASTBALLS
Betts has always been a fastball hitter, and he has been particularly effective against the hard stuff this season, contributing to his AL-best .366 average and 1.191 OPS. Here’s what’s happened when Betts connects with four-seamers.
Source: Baseball Savant
That’ll make for an interesting matchup against Happ Tuesday, since the left-hander gets most of his swinging strikes on four-seamers up in the zone.
Source: Baseball Savant
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