DUNEDIN, Fla. – Blue Jays fans can be forgiven for feeling as though they’re cursed. And hey, maybe there’s something to the notion that the Baseball Gods didn’t take kindly to the World Series Championship trophy moving north of the border for a couple of years. It’s possible they’ve decided to punish us.
The news that Marcus Stroman is likely to be lost for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee has turned Blue Jays’ camp from upbeat to devastated as teammates and fans alike bemoan the loss of the young stud-in-the-making who may well have been the Jays’ best pitcher.
But the clock doesn’t stop, there’s nothing that can be done about Stroman’s injury now and there’s an entire season still to be played, so things must advance quickly from the current “woe is me” to “ok, so what the heck do we do now?”
There’s no silver lining in losing a potential ace, but at least the Blue Jays won’t be trying to plug the hole Stroman’s absence has left with a replacement-level pitcher. They have two very talented, but very green, young starters who can step into the void.
Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris, both of whom will be 22 when Norris’ birthday hits at the end of April, are ready to pitch in the major leagues. Are they ready to dominate, to the extent that Sanchez did out of the bullpen over the last two months of last season? Probably not, but they’re likely to be as good as anything that’s available to the Blue Jays on the trade, waiver or free agent market (save Cole Hamels, who won’t be coming to Toronto) and they have a chance to be a whole lot better.
Who would you rather have, the establishedly mediocre Dillon Gee or a Norris or Sanchez with the potential to be great?
Marco Estrada is the Blue Jays’ other internal option to take Stroman’s place – the official word from the club is that Estrada, Norris and Sanchez are now battling for the two open spots in the rotation – and he would give the Jays another veteran to go with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, preventing the rotation from having three out of five pitchers at 25 years of age and under.
Estrada was terrific in 2012 and ’13 for the Brewers, posting a WHIP of 1.111 over 266 1/3 innings while starting 44 times in 50 appearances, but he fell victim to the longball in a big way last season, allowing 29 home runs in 150 2/3 innings.
He can be a quality major-league starter, and it may be difficult for the Blue Jays to resist the temptation to slot him in as a stabilizing force in the bottom of the rotation. That would allow the Jays to either start Sanchez in the bullpen or Norris in Buffalo, if that’s where they feel they’re best-suited.
Estrada has value as a swingman, though. He’s someone who is used to going back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, wherever the need arises. And while he is a solid pitcher, without a doubt, his ceiling is nowhere near as high as either Norris’ or Sanchez’s.
If it were up to me (and it most assuredly is not), both Norris and Sanchez would go into the rotation, assuming they continue to show the command and life on their pitches that they have so far this spring, and Estrada would go to the bullpen to help out there and be available should there be another need in the rotation.
Stroman was on a trajectory to be the Blue Jays’ ace this season, if not in name, than in expected performance. Neither Norris nor Sanchez can replace him, but a rotation that includes those two plus Dickey, Buehrle and Drew Hutchison should still be a very formidable one.
Maybe the bigger issue is who fills Sanchez’s shoes in the bullpen. That’s the shakier part of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, with or without Stroman, and the jury is still out on whether Brett Cecil can be a dependable closer. It appeared as though Cecil, Sanchez, Aaron Loup and Estrada were going to be called upon to hold down the fort late in games, and now two of those guys might be out of the equation.
Steve Delabar was an all-star in 2013 but suffered through a terrible season last year. So far this spring, he’s looked like his old self. There’s life on the fastball again, and he’s back in the low- to mid-90s. The splitter is once again diving off the table. It’s only been three spring innings, but there have been good signs.
Twenty year-olds Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have been very impressive so far this spring as well, with Castro likelier to be a part of things in Toronto than Osuna, who just came back from Tommy John surgery late last year, at least right away. They’re both big, power arms and they’ve combined to give up just two hits over five spring innings, without a walk. Gregory Infante also has a big, huge power arm, and he threw a couple of 98s on the radar gun in his shutout inning of work on Tuesday. He, too, has yet to give up a run in three appearances this spring.
It’s possible that Castro and Infante both make the team now, that one of them emerges as that big scary closer, and that Osuna joins them in August, which would certainly make Sanchez moving to the rotation much easier to swallow.
A trade market could develop, but the Texas Rangers are looking hard for starting pitching as well, since they’ve lost Yu Darvish for the season, and they have more top prospects that they’re willing to deal – the Blue Jays need their young arms more than ever right now. And really, who is trading an ace in March, other than the Phillies with the aforementioned Hamels?
Of course, there’s an old arm that could enter the picture, too, but Johan Santana isn’t ready to get on a mound yet. It’s a huge long shot that he winds up healthy and strong enough to be a contributor to the Blue Jays’ rotation this season, but it was also a huge long shot that they’d lose Stroman for the year because of a non-contact injury on a bunting drill.
Since we’re on the topic of long shots, Ricky Romero is not yet recovered enough from his knee surgeries to be able to pitch. Once he is, he’s still going to have a long way back.
Stroman’s season is over before it started, but the Blue Jays’ most certainly is not. It’s just going to be a lot more difficult.
