Opening day is almost here and the Toronto Blue Jays have their rotation ready to go.
The Yankees have some uncertainty over Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, the Red Sox can’t be sure about what they’ll get from anyone besides Chris Sale, and the Orioles made some late free agency noise by adding Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have just three starters in their rotation right now.
Here’s a one-through-five look at how the starting rotations of the AL East compare…
| No.1 (last full season) | IP | K | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale [BOS] | 226.2 | 308 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 6.0 |
| Luis Severino [NYY] | 193.1 | 230 | 2.98 | 3.08 | 5.3 |
| Chris Archer [TB] | 201.0 | 249 | 4.07 | 3.40 | 1.3 |
| J.A. Happ [TOR] | 145.1 | 142 | 3.53 | 3.76 | 3.6 |
| Kevin Gausman [BAL] | 186.2 | 179 | 4.68 | 4.48 | 2.0 |
Chris Sale is clearly a cut above even in this batch of aces, while Luis Severino will have the opportunity to lead the Yankees after a down season for Tanaka.
| No.2 (last full season) | IP | K | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez [TOR] | 192.0 | 161 | 3.00 | 3.55 | 5.1 |
| David Price [BOS] | 230.0 | 228 | 3.99 | 3.60 | 3.0 |
| Blake Snell [TB] | 129.1 | 119 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 1.9 |
| Masahiro Tanaka [NYY] | 178.1 | 194 | 4.74 | 4.34 | 2.7 |
| Dylan Bundy [BAL] | 169.2 | 152 | 4.24 | 4.38 | 2.7 |
Both Aaron Sanchez and David Price enter 2018 with plenty to prove. The Jays right-hander will need to show that last year’s blister issues are a thing of the past. Meanwhile, Price will be looking for a full season and the Red Sox are hoping for a bounce back considering the $127 million remaining on his contract after 2018.
Blake Snell will be looking to make a name for himself with the Rays. He had a 3.49 ERA over 77.1 innings in the second half last year and carried that momentum over into spring training, when he allowed six earned runs over 17.1 innings.
| No.3 (last full season) | IP | K | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb [BAL] | 179.1 | 128 | 3.66 | 4.16 | 2.4 |
| Marco Estrada [TOR] | 186.0 | 176 | 4.98 | 4.61 | 2.6 |
| Rick Porcello [BOS] | 203.1 | 181 | 4.65 | 4.60 | 2.0 |
| CC Sabathia [NYY] | 148.2 | 120 | 3.69 | 4.49 | 1.9 |
| Jacob Faria [TB] | 86.2 | 84 | 3.43 | 4.12 | 1.3 |
Cobb looks like a huge addition for the Orioles, and should help bolster Baltimore’s rotation. Elsewhere in the AL East, Rick Porcello is coming off a down season, it’s reasonable to have concerns about Sabathia’s knee and Jake Faria showed some promising signs last season as a rookie.
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| No.4 (last full season) | IP | K | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman [TOR] | 201.0 | 164 | 3.09 | 3.90 | 3.4 |
| Sonny Gray [NYY] | 162.1 | 153 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 2.8 |
| Bullpen [TB] | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Andrew Cashner [BAL] | 166.2 | 86 | 3.40 | 4.61 | 1.9 |
| Hector Velazquez [BOS] | 24.2 | 19 | 2.92 | 4.58 | 0.6 |
For the Red Sox, this is where things start to get dicey. Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off knee surgery, Steven Wright’s dealing with a knee issue and will be unavailable for the first 15 games of the season while serving a suspension and Drew Pomeranz has tightness in his left forearm. That means right-hander Hector Velazquez will begin the season in Boston’s rotation.
Still, none of those issues compares to the uncertainty the Rays face after learning that Nathan Eovaldi will likely require surgery. Now the Tampa rotation’s down to three starters.
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| No.5 (last full season) | IP | K | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Montgomery [NYY] | 155.1 | 144 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 2.9 |
| Jaime Garcia [TOR] | 157.0 | 129 | 4.41 | 4.25 | 2.1 |
| Chris Tillman [BAL] | 172.0 | 140 | 3.77 | 4.23 | 2.4 |
| Brian Johnson [BOS] | 27.0 | 21 | 4.33 | 4.90 | 0.2 |
| Bullpen [TB] | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jordan Montgomery finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting last season and will be looking to carry that success into this season. His former teammate, Jaime Garcia, joins the Blue Jays as the fifth starter in a potentially deep Toronto rotation.
The Rays’ experiment with the fifth spot in the rotation is as fascinating as any, and the durability of their other starters should go a long way in determining the success of this plan.
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