At first glance, Saturday’s starting pitchers were mismatched.
Pitching for the Rays was Charlie Morton, one of the American League’s best starters. With an ERA hovering around 3.00 and well over 200 strikeouts, he’s in the midst of a career year at age 35. He’s not lucking into it, either. Morton consistently locates his 95 m.p.h. fastball where he wants it then confuses opponents with a breaking ball that starts off the plate then sweeps over it at the last minute. By then, it’s usually too late to adjust.
More often than not, that combination’s been enough to overpower the game’s best hitters. So ahead of Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays, the Rays had reason to feel optimistic, especially considering that Toronto’s Anthony Kay would be making his MLB debut.
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Morton was as effective as usual, striking out 10 Blue Jays over six innings of work. But it was Kay who out-pitched Morton, allowing just two earned runs over 5.2 innings in a game the Rays eventually won 5-3 after scoring three times against the Blue Jays’ bullpen.
At field level, the loss extends the Blue Jays’ losing streak to six and gives them a 55-88 record on the season. From another perspective, the Marcus Stroman trade has officially started paying dividends. Either way, there was plenty to observe, and after that debut, where else to start but with Kay?
AN IMPRESSIVE BEGINNING
From the first inning on, Kay attacked Rays hitters within the strike zone. Relying primarily on a 94-95 m.p.h. fastball, the 24-year-old challenged the opposition early. Once he had the advantage, he mixed in his breaking ball and change-up, both of which he threw for strikes.
With the exception of a two-run fourth inning, Kay was largely in control. He struck out eight hitters, tying teammate Trent Thornton’s franchise record for most strikeouts by a Blue Jays pitcher in his big-league debut.
Even when the Rays scored, they weren’t necessarily squaring Kay up. Their first run followed a hard ground ball to third that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. couldn’t handle and a pop-up that landed beyond Rowdy Tellez’s reach. Not exactly rockets off the outfield walls.
But even if the Rays weren’t connecting on Kay’s pitches, he did get himself into trouble at times. He hit Matt Duffy on an 0-2 pitch and walked Willy Adames on four pitches to force in the Rays’ second run. Then he walked consecutive batters in the sixth before Charlie Montoyo went to his bullpen.
Those command issues aren’t new for Kay, who walked 22 in 36 innings at triple-A Buffalo. Clearly, there’s room to improve here. At the same time, Kay was in double-A as recently as June. Were we expecting a finished product?
Big picture, this performance was truly impressive. Pitching against one of the American League’s best teams, he mixed in three effective pitches while allowing just two runs.
BY WAY OF COMPARISON…
Just in case you’re wondering how Stroman has fared since the trade, here are his numbers with New York: a 5.05 ERA with 37 strikeouts compared to 14 walks in 35.2 innings. Thanks in part to a problematic bullpen, his Mets began the day 4.0 games out of a wild-card spot
And as long as we’re keeping score, Simeon Woods Richardson, the other pitcher acquired in the Stroman trade, finished the season with a 2.54 ERA in six starts at high-A Dunedin. The 18-year-old struck out 28 while walking just seven in 28.1 innings.
19 AND COUNTING
Once Kay delivered his first pitch of the evening, the Blue Jays officially used their 19th starting pitcher of the season. In the history of the American League, the 1915 Philadelphia Athletics are the only team to use more starters.
In a way that underscores just how little stability the Blue Jays have had in their rotation this year. Case in point: Edwin Jackson got chance after chance for this team. And remember Ryan Feierabend? It’s been rough.
But we shouldn’t read too much into that stat, either. In this era of openers, the lines between starters and relievers are blurrier than ever. Chances are, someone will break the Blue Jays’ record before long. Maybe by then, the Blue Jays will have a little more stability in their rotation.
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A LESSON FROM MORTON
Every time I watch Charlie Morton pitch, I’m impressed by how completely he has transformed himself at the major-league level. When he debuted in 2008 he was a ground ball specialist whose fastball averaged just 90.7 m.p.h. Now he’s a power pitcher who gets hitters to chase 95 m.p.h. above the zone. It’s like you’re watching a different pitcher.
Clearly, there are multiple potential lessons here, some more repeatable than others. Like so many former Astros, Morton now throws his best pitches more often. When he first broke into the league he threw that devastating curve just 10.7 per cent of the time. This year he’s been throwing it 36.7 per cent of the time, a career high. Around baseball, many pitchers are following Houston’s lead on that front, making life harder for hitters.
When you zoom out even further, there’s a useful reminder for teams here. Three years ago, Morton was a low-level free agent coming off an injury-plagued age-32 season. He wasn’t exactly a prime free agent and the two-year, $14 million contract he obtained at the time reflected that. Yet his production since then has been elite.
As teams like the Blue Jays prepare to explore the free-agent pitching market this winter, they’ll have to be mindful of these mid-career transformations. While hitters seem to be peaking earlier and earlier, the likes of Morton, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor continue proving that pitchers can surprise us long after we’ve written them off.
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