Carson on MLB: LCS previews

One round down, pennants to be decided as statsman Scott Carson looks at five burning questions heading into each League Championship Series match-up.

Which team has the better pitching staff, the Phillies or Giants? Which team’s rotation is better set-up for this round, the Yankees or Rangers? Which ballpark will provide the biggest home-field advantage? Carson touches on these and other topics in his statistics-filled, in-depth previews. Enjoy.

ALCS Preview

Yankees (98-67) vs. Rangers (93-74)
(Season series tied 4-4)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Will the Rangers exploit Jorge Posada’s deteriorating skills?

Based upon the way that the Rangers ran wild in the final game of the Rays series expect them to run whenever possible. Manager Ron Washington realized in the previous series that his team wasn’t going to be able to slug their way to wins, so being aggressive on the bases was the way to go. The Rangers were successful on all eight stolen base attempts against the Yankees during the regular season, half of those coming against Posada, whose 12.2 caught stealing percentage this season ranked him 28th in the majors.

2. Can Josh Hamilton be a factor?

After only playing three of the Rangers’ final 27 games in the regular season, the AL batting champion showed plenty of rust in the first round, scratching out just two singles while striking out six times in 20 plate appearances. When he’s right, Hamilton has a skill set that reminds many of Mickey Mantle. The time off between the series might be just what Hamilton’s bruised ribs needed to get close to 100 per cent. While others filled the offensive void against the Rays, the Rangers will be in tough if they don’t have Hamilton in the middle of rallies.

3. Can Neftali Feliz rediscover his mojo?

This could be a problem for the Rangers if their rookie closer doesn’t get over the jitters that plagued him in the LDS. Virtually unhittable in the regular season, Feliz allowed five of the nine hitters he faced to reach against the Rays. Of note, Feliz wasn’t even up and warming in the 9th inning of Game 5, starter C.J. Wilson was. It might be to his advantage that this series starts in Texas because once the series switches to Yankee Stadium for Game 3, the pressure will go up immeasurably under the bright lights on baseball’s biggest stage.

4. Is Cliff Lee not starting until Game 3 an advantage?

By having their ace start — and finish — the clincher in Tampa Bay, it means Lee won’t be available until Game 3 and would be the go-to guy if the series goes the full seven. Having a veteran start the first game in New York is a big advantage for the Rangers, knowing that he certainly won’t be overwhelmed by the atmosphere. Plus, this will also get him away from head-to-head starts against Yankees ace CC Sabathia, who is 8-3 lifetime in 14 career starts against the Rangers. Andy Pettitte will face Lee and no longer has the skills that CC possesses.

5. Will there be a home-field advantage?

Both of these teams won on the road in the first round, the Rangers winning all three of their games in Tampa Bay while the Yankees took both games in Minnesota. The weather will certainly make things a lot more comfortable for all involved when the games are played in Arlington, with temperatures expected in the low 60s at game time and zero chance of rain. But when the scene shifts to the Bronx, the temperature will drop into the 40s. How a warm-weather team like the Rangers react to that will have a big factor on the series outcome.

STATSMAN’S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Yankees in seven.

Despite their advancing age, the defending champions have a more dependable bullpen and a roster full of players who thrive in October.

NLCS Preview

Giants (95-71) vs. Phillies (100-65)

(Season series tied 3-3)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Which team has the better starting pitching?

At first glance, the answer would be Philadelphia, especially after Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in his first career post-season start. He’s followed by Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels who would be aces on most other teams. But the Giants ace Tim Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young award winner at just 26 years old and has a 1.45 ERA in his past five starts against the Phillies. They will then follow him with lefty Jonathan Sanchez, right-hander Matt Cain and, possibly, lefty Madison Bumgarner. It says here that there is no real advantage between the two staffs.

2. Are the Phillies more battle-tested?

No doubt about that. The Phillies are trying to make it back to the World Series for the third straight year, something that hasn’t happened to a National League team since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals. Six of their eight everyday position players were on the ’08 championship team and they know exactly what it takes to go the distance. The Giants, on the other hand, have only former Phillie Pat Burrell with any extensive post-season experience and his .215 career average in the playoffs leaves a lot to be desired.

3. How will Buster Posey hold up?

First off all, let’s put his accomplishments into a historical perspective. Posey is trying to become the first rookie to catch in the World Series since the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina in 2004. He’s also expected to lead this team and its rotation of varying characters. Plus, he’s also batting in the middle of the Giants’ order and driving in key runs on a daily basis. What he has done to date is the stuff of legends. Oh, and another thing, he’s only 23 years old. And keep this in mind: Posey is 5-for-9 in his career against Oswalt, Hamels and Joe Blanton.

Now he gets to pitch on baseball’s biggest stage. There’s no reason to think he won’t continue to dominate.

4. Who has the better closer?

Giants closer Brian Wilson was the major-league leader with 48 saves, averaged 11.2 Ks per 9 IP and posted an airtight ERA of 1.81. In the post-season, Wilson continued to dominate, saving two of their three wins over Atlanta. But he hasn’t exactly been lights out in his career against Philadelphia. In eight career appearances, he’s blown two saves and sports a lofty ERA of 6.43. For the Phillies and their fans, they still live and die with Brad Lidge, who was perfect in ’08 but a mere mortal a year ago. He’s back to being the man, though anything but automatic.

5. Who has the better manager?

Make no mistake, the Phillies are the better team in this matchup. They have veterans throughout the line-up, in the rotation, in the bullpen and on the bench. And manager Charlie Manuel is a laid-back southern gentleman who knows how to massage all the egos under his command. Giants skipper Bruce Bochy has a more daunting task guiding a squad with not much post-season experience. But his team seems to be one of destiny, having come from a ways back to capture the NL West and then grinding out four one-run games in the NLDS.

STATSMAN’S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Phillies in six.

Their top three starters have been tough to beat in the last seven weeks, and their veterans have been there and done that.