Let’s keep this is as simple as possible, shall we?
The extra wild card team in each league in 2012 means that for the first time in Major League Baseball history, there will 10 playoff teams.
Unlike hockey and basketball, where basically half of the teams advance to the playoffs, baseball has managed to keep its post-season an exclusive club.
Let’s knock off the division winners to whittle this down to the four teams that might meet in the one-game, sudden death playoff between the two wild card teams.
Predicted division winners:
AL EAST: Yankees
AL CENTRAL: Tigers
AL WEST: Rangers
NL EAST: Phillies
NL CENTRAL: Cardinals
NL WEST: Diamondbacks
In the American League, I’m thinking that the Angels are a lock for one of the two wild card berths.
The off-season free agent signings of first baseman Albert Pujols and left-handed starter C.J. Wilson made this roster quite formidable. The question is whether they have enough to catch the two-time defending division – and American League – champion Texas Rangers.
It says here that they don’t, unless the Rangers suffer through a spate of injuries. The acquisition of superstar Japanese starter Yu Darvish should more than trump the defection of Wilson to the division rival Angels.
The other wild card team will definitely come out of the East, which is setting up to be a dog fight between the Rays, Red Sox and the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay’s rally at the end of last season will certainly make them a very confident bunch heading into 2012. Their young and deep starting rotation gives them a solid chance to win 90+ games, but they are going to need more than just Evan Longoria as an offensive threat.
The return of Carlos Pena gives them another home run threat, but he really is an all-or-nothing slugger with all his strikeouts. If B.J. Upton could ever put it all together, this lineup could become deep and dangerous, but that is a very big if.
This may be the year when the Rays will be forced to deal some pitching in-season to acquire a bat to put them over the top. Look for manager Joe Maddon to continue his magical, Zen-like ways of finding ways to win by thinking outside of the box and eschewing "The Book."
The Red Sox appear to be a franchise at a crossroad.
Everyone is saying the right things after their September collapse when the inmates began running the asylum, leading to the ouster of manager Terry Francona and the departure of general manager Theo Epstein to the Cubs.
They have a solid top three in their rotation, but after that they are hoping that Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves can step in from the bullpen to fill out the final two spots. Andrew Bailey comes over from the Athletics to replace departed closer Jonathan Papelbon and it will be interesting to see how he handles the Fenway pressure cooker after pitching in front of friends and family in Oakland.
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox everyday lineup is getting long in the tooth. The key will be the health of Kevin Youkilis and Carl Crawford. If those two can return to past form, the Sox will score a lot of runs.
If not, Red Sox Nation will be crying in their $10 pints all summer long.
One might think that the Blue Jays will be able to quietly get themselves into the wild card race, but after their lights-out spring training, they are not going to sneak up on anyone.
The top of their rotation is quite solid with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, and No. 3 man Henderson Alvarez is showing this spring that his 10-start audition at the end of last year was no fluke.
The keys will be Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan. Cecil dropped a ton of weight this off-season and has looked promising. McGowan is still making his way back after missing two full seasons with health issues, and is now dealing with a foot injury. Should either falter, the Jays won’t hesitate to dip into a deep farm system that has starters Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins knocking on the door.
This past winter the Jays revamped their bullpen, a weakness a year ago, by trading for Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and signing veteran free-agent arms Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero.
Offensively, Jose Bautista is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he was the top power hitter in the game and Brett Lawrie, if he stays healthy, should put up a monster year. The offensive keys will be the Jays’ left-handed hitters – Adam Lind, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus and Eric Thames. If they can hit to their projected capabilities, then this team should have more than enough offence. If they don’t, the opposition will pitch around Bautista and Lawrie and this team will have trouble scoring runs.
But for the first time since the World Series years in the ‘90s, there is an optimistic tone surrounding this team.
Over in the National League, as many as six teams have legitimate shots at the two wild card spots. In the East, the pitching-rich Braves — coupled with rising offensive superstars Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman — are looking to put their 2011 collapse behind them. But they will have a pair of teams that bulked up in the off-season – the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins – hot on their heels.
The return of Stephen Strasburg after Tommy John surgery, coupled with the acquisitions
of left-handed starter Gio Gonzalez and right-hander Edwin Jackson, gives the Nationals a formidable rotation.
The key will be on offence where Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche need to play up to their capabilities and this team should get a boost mid-season when super phenom Bryce Harper is expected to make his Major League debut.
There is a lot of upside on this roster.
There’s lot of newness with the Marlins this season. A new stadium, new uniforms, a new manager and the ditching of "Florida" in favour of "Miami," to their team name.
Their new downtown stadium will inject some cash into the franchise and they didn’t waste any time bringing in free agents Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and Jose Reyes.
But this team will only be as good as Ozzie Guillen allows them to be. He might be a loose cannon, but Guillen is a winner and it should be fun watching this team grow with their new identity.
The Central has a pair of teams that should also be in the mix.
The Brewers are a deep and talented ballclub, but they will need to find a way to overcome the offensive loss of first baseman Prince Fielder. Free agent third baseman Aramis Ramirez will be expected to help fill that void.
A lot will also be expected from reigning N.L. MVP Ryan Braun, who has much to prove after testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone and escaping a 50-game suspension due on a technicality.
Watch for the Brew Crew to use a lot more small-ball this season. Their rotation is as deep as any in the game, and their Canadian closer, John Axford, leads an equally deep bullpen.
Before this spring, it was thought that the Reds had a solid shot at the wild card, but they were dealt a major blow when free agent closer Ryan Madson blew out his pitching elbow during spring training and will now be lost for the season.
Left-handers Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman are expected to fill in this season, but the loss of Madson will be hard to overcome.
Out west, the Giants have two stud starters in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and a top-shelf closer in Brian (The Beard) Wilson. But they are offensively-challenged and need to find ways to score runs and will need bounce-back seasons from Buster Posey – returning from a horrible ankle injury – and Aubrey Huff to contend for a post-season slot.
They also need more from the bat of Melky Cabrera, who is coming off a .305, 18 home run season with the Royals.
The long overdue addition of two extra wild card spots should, at least, keep a lot more teams in the chase later into this season.
That’s not a bad thing.
That should also make things interesting this summer around the trade deadline when the buyers could far outweigh the sellers.
