It’s been the best of times, it’s been the worst of times … nah, that’s BS. Honestly? Looking back on my prognostications for the 2015 MLB season as we await the resumption of regular-season play, it’s been the really-bad-worst of times. Maybe the worstest.
So here’s what we’re going to do: I’m going to revisit those bold calls, adding the appropriate mea culpa – or, rather, ‘mea (GULP)a’ – and, if you’ll allow me, maybe embark on a little revision here and there. You will do that for me, right?
Much appreciated. Let’s start with my predicted division champions …
American League: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners | Wild Card: Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
National League: Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers | Wild Card: Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates
World Series: Washington Nationals over Seattle Mariners
MEA GULPA: I didn’t fall in love with the Cleveland Indians in the manner of a certain national magazine – (cough) Sports Illustrated (cough) – but there’s the slight matter of my dalliance with the Seattle Mariners, who have been a puzzling disappointment. If I could have a redo I’d go Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim with the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros (yep: I’m hitching my wagon to the Astros) as wild-card teams, and go with the Royals as American League champs. The only change in the NL I’d make is picking the San Francisco Giants for the second wild card. Still OK with the Nationals as World Series champions. Might get that one right. Accent on ‘might.’
Now, let’s revisit my pithy one-line thoughts on each team:
AL East
Boston Red Sox: Curt Schilling said Clay Buchholz isn’t cut out to be an ace. He’s right, but that won’t be a mortal wound in this division.
Toronto Blue Jays: No organization in this division is as well-positioned for the long-term. If Drew Hutchison and the young arms keep body and soul together, they’ll be in the picture at the end of the season, too. Prediction: Josh Donaldson hits more home runs than any other Blue Jays player and gets some MVP consideration.
Baltimore Orioles: No team makes better use of their 40-man roster than the Orioles. They’ll need to do that this season, with early-season injuries to J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters.
New York Yankees: The Yankees have had fewer wins than the Mets just once in 23 years. That was in 2000. They’ll have fewer wins than the Mets this season, too.
Tampa Bay Rays: What happens first: the Rays make it back to the playoffs or relocate?
MEA GULPA: Could you make a bigger hash of a division preview? No. No you couldn’t, as a matter of fact. The AL East isn’t quite the tire fire we expected. The Yankees could very well win more games than the Mets – good lord, could Alex Rodriguez really be comeback player of the year? – and the Rays could very well make it back to the playoffs at least once before they relocate. Like, this October. But, hey, I can hang my hat on Donaldson, right?
AL Central
Detroit Tigers: Shh, hear those sounds? The first one is Justin Verlander’s arm creaking; the second is the sound of a window of opportunity slamming shut.
Cleveland Indians: Brandon Moss is the finishing touch to a team on the cusp, in some ways the smartest off-season pickup in the majors.
Kansas City Royals: Picking them as a wild-card team was a gut call … in honour of manager Ned Yost.
Chicago White Sox: General manager Rick Hahn spent $132 million on five free agents and traded for Jeff Samardzija. Massive, expensive turnover doesn’t always work (see: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays).
Minnesota Twins: Paul Molitor picked a bad time to decide to manage.
MEA GULPA: Ahem: as it turns out, the only reason 2015 will turn out to be a “bad time to decide to manage” for Molitor is he might only finish second in Manager of the Year voting to say, the Rays’ Kevin Cash. Moss hasn’t been the smartest off-season pickup, and if you’re going to pick the Royals to back in as a wild-card team, might as well have shown the stones to pick them to win the division. Still think the Tigers are going to get their fingers caught on the window sill, however.
AL West
Seattle Mariners: They’re my pick to win the AL pennant, but you can pitch to the top of that order (Austin Jackson and Seth Smith). Nelson Cruz might want to note that free-agent righty hitters have had a tough time transitioning to Safeco Field, but at least they’re not the …
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Albert Pujols, Josh Hamiton, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver will make $87.5 million this year after a combined 8.4 WAR in 2014. Yikes. Howie Kendrick, maybe their most efficient player, is gone. This is a poorly-constructed team on the way down.
Oakland Athletics: They scored a ton of runs without Josh Reddick and now Coco Crisp, who is out for two months because of elbow surgery. But since they’re the A’s they’ll figure out a way to contend.
Houston Astros: Collin McHugh’s career trajectory looks suspiciously like that of Corey Kluber, and while they’ll strike out a lot the Astros won’t be in last place again for a long, long time.
Texas Rangers: The lineup for Adrian Beltre forms on the right.
MEA GULPA: Guess the Mariners aren’t winning the AL pennant, or the division title, or for that matter, making the playoffs. Meanwhile, for a team on the way down, the Angels are doing a pretty good job of impersonating a first-place team, aren’t they? They’ve survived the bungled exit of Hamilton and a front-office coup orchestrated by manager Mike Scioscia that led to the resignation of general manager Jerry DiPoto. Mostly, they’ve done it because Albert Pujols is back and Mike Trout is, well, the best. On the plus side, the Astros really won’t be in last place again for a long, long time. In fact, GM Jeff Luhnow is nicely positioned to be the boldest of his peers as we approach the trade deadline. The Astros ETA has been pushed up by two years. I think they’re going to surprise you at the trade deadline.
NL East
Washington Nationals: They won’t win the division by 17 games this season. More like 14 games.
Miami Marlins: They will score a ton of runs with Dee Gordon atop the lineup, and if Jose Fernandez comes back mid-season you won’t want to face this team in the playoffs. Christian Yelich could be a breakout player.
New York Mets: Terry Collins could be the first manager fired in the majors; he could also be NL Manager of the Year.
Atlanta Braves: After back-to-back 90-win seasons, the Braves dumped Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Evan Gattis to signal a rebuild. What the Braves are saying is: “Don’t watch us until our new stadium opens in 2017.” They’ll find people more than willing to take them up on the offer.
Philadelphia Phillies: Three spring-training questions: when do they trade Cole Hamels and Chase Utley? How will they ever be able to trade Ryan Howard? How does GM Ruben Amaro Jr. still have his job?
MEA GULPA: Hands up if you overestimated the Marlins. Thought so. Meanwhile, the Nationals haven’t exactly run away and hidden from the Mets, let alone the pack. The Mets need to make a bold move in these next two weeks, but there are a lot of questions as to whether Sandy Alderson has the stomach to pull the trigger on a deal with so many good young pitchers. Sounds like another GM we know, doesn’t it?
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals: Their fans are reprehensible and smug in that small-minded Midwestern sort of way … as we’ll get to see in the playoffs once again.
Pittsburgh Pirates: No team reinvents a bullpen like the Pirates. Don’t bet against them doing it again, even without Russell Martin.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers led the toughest division in baseball for the better half of five months last year. Bounce-back seasons from Ryan Braun and Jean Segura might give them a sniff of the wild card.
Chicago Cubs: Not yet, Cubs fans. Not yet. But you have a better chance of winning the World Series in the next five years than, say, the Toronto Maple Leafs have of winning the Stanley Cup. One area of concern among the streamers and balloons: the high strikeout rates of youngsters Jorge Soler, Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds haven’t had a pitcher win 20 games back-to-back since Bucky Walters in 1939-40. Johnny Cueto could pull off that trick on the way to breaking the bank as a free agent fleeing a last-place team that needs a rebuild.
MEA GULPA: Look, at least give me this: I’ve done a decent job of reading the toughest division in baseball, with the exception of overestimating the Brewers and underestimating the Cubs, although with 799 strikeouts (goodness!) they’re second only to the Astros as a major-league wind farm. The Cubs have the second-easiest schedule in the division from this point on, in terms of opponents winning percentage. Compare that to the Pirates, whose opponents have a .510 winning percentage (the highest for an NL team with a winning record) and who still have to play a league-high 41 road games. Still, I like the way this is playing out. Cardinals fans, well, they’re still smug.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Take the 12th-worst bullpen in the league and subtract the closer for at least a month. Now add in health concerns for No. 3 starter Hyun-jin Ryu. Good thing this is the NL West, where the San Francisco Giants take odd-numbered years off.
San Diego Padres: Baseball’s weird chemistry experiment won’t blow up in anybody’s face. But it won’t make the playoffs, either.
San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner tossed 270 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs. Think about that.
Colorado Rockies: Is there any reason for this franchise to exist other than to give Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez a place to play until they go elsewhere. The answer is no.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Smart baseball people expected the combination of an analytics-allergic front office (GM Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa) and manager Chip Hale to be a mess. They are correct. Cuban free agent Yasmany Tomas and his $68.5-million contract will start the year in the minors, where he will continue the transition from outfield to third base.
MEA GULPA: Yeah, keep thinking about Madison Bumgarner’s workload, will ya? The Giants are just a couple of games out in the wild-card race and 4.5 back of the Dodgers, whose two-headed pitching monster – Clayton Greinkeshaw? – will continue to give Don Mattingly’s team a competitive edge right up to the playoffs, where they could be division series roadkill. As hinted, the Padres experiment isn’t working out, although I’m not certain that there will be quite the fire sale everyone expects. My guess is the Padres hang on to pitchers such as James Shields, Andrew Cashner and Craig Kimbrel.
Now, for the individual awards … along with a re-do:
AL MVP: Robinson Cano, Mariners | Runner-up: Mike Trout, Angels
IF I KNEW THEN: Mike Trout, Angels | Runner-up: Jose Altuve, Astros
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins | Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
IF I KNEW THEN: Bryce Harper, Nationals | Runner-up: Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners | Runner-up: Corey Kluber, Indians
IF I KNEW THEN: Dallas Keuchel, Astros | Runner-up: Glen Perkins, Twins
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers | Runner-up: Max Scherzer, Nationals
IF I KNEW THEN: Max Scherzer, Nationals | Runner-up: Zack Greinke, Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Rodon, White Sox | Runner-up: Taijuan Walker, Mariners
IF I KNEW THEN: Billy Burns, Athletics | Runner-up: Devon Travis, Blue Jays
NL Rookie of the Year: Joc Pederson, Dodgers | Runner-up: Kris Bryant, Cubs
AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Indians | Runner-up: John Farrell, Red Sox
IF I KNEW THEN: A.J Hinch, Astros | Runner-up: Kevin Cash, Rays
NL Manager of the Year: Mike Matheny, Cardinals | Runner-up: Mike Redmond, Marlins
IF I KNEW THEN: Mike Matheny, Cardinals | Runner-up: Clint Hurdle, Pirates
Mike Redmond was, of course, the first manager fired. Figures.