• Otani is considered the best MLB prospect outside North America
• In December, Japanese media reported he plans to jump to MLB in 2018
• MLB’s new spending cap on foreign signings has him considering his options
Bitter news out of Peoria, AZ on Jan. 31, where the NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters are holding the first leg of their spring training.
Shohei Otani, the best baseball player you’ve never seen, says he’s aggravated an ankle injury and won’t pitch for Japan in this March’s World Baseball Classic. And he might not hit, either.
For the unacquainted: Otani was named the NPB Pacific League’s top pitcher and designated hitter in 2016, and is one of the most highly regarded prospects outside MLB today. Last season the 22-year-old was the Fighters’ staff ace as well as their primary designated hitter, and on the days he pitched the Fighters waived the right to their DH, opting instead to let Otani hit for himself.
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He put up a 1.86 ERA in 20 starts while posting a 1.004 OPS in nearly 400 plate appearances. Many scouts believe he could step onto an MLB team today as either a front-of-the-rotation starter or an everyday right fielder with a middle-of-the-order bat.
So, yes, he’s quite talented. And while every injury is inherently unfortunate, this one stings a little bit more for North American fans who have only been able to watch Otani on YouTube and have rarely seen him play against major league competition.
The dream WBC scenario had both Japan and the United States advancing to the championship round in Los Angeles, where the match-ups were so tantalizing it hurts. Otani attacking Giancarlo Stanton with 100-m.p.h. fastballs. Otani fighting off Chris Archer sliders. It would have been an exceptionally rare chance to see just what the young phenom can do against the world’s best players.
Instead, we’ll just have to wait until Otani makes the jump to MLB, something he’s dreamed of since he was a teenager. Speaking to Sportsnet in Japan last month for an in-depth profile that will be published Sunday Feb. 5, Otani said he thought hard about making the jump to MLB after winning a Japan Series title with the Fighters in October. But something just didn’t feel right.
“Last season when we won, I didn’t feel satisfied at all. I want more of a feeling of satisfaction before I go,” Otani said. “I didn’t feel ready to go to the MLB—not yet. It’s a feeling. It’s hard to explain. I don’t know exactly when it’s going to be. But when I feel ready to go, I’ll go.”
Kyodo News reported in December that when Otani re-signed with the Fighters for 2017 (he’ll earn 270 million yen this season, or about $3.1 million Canadian) he informed them he was planning to jump to the MLB for the 2018 season.
That’s certainly still a possibility. But now Otani appears to have backed away from putting a firm date on his departure, opting instead to keep his options open. Part of that is surely due to MLB’s new international spending rules, which Otani says he’s factoring into his decision.
“Because of the changes, it’s not easy to make a decision,” Otani said. “I’m going to be the first guy under the new system and new rules to go over there. It’s going to be a tough decision for me.”
MLB’s new collective bargaining agreement limits international spending on players under the age of 25 to a maximum of $4.75 million for the league’s highest-revenue teams, and $5.75 million for its lowest. Teams can trade for up to 75 per cent more of their budget, which could potentially boost those numbers to $8.3 million for teams with deep pockets and a little more than $10 million for those on the low end of the revenue spectrum.
Of course, it’s much more likely that a high revenue team would woo Otani, who has been linked to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the past.
The timing of the change is especially unfortunate for Otani, who turns 23 this July. Under the old CBA, players 23 and over were exempt from spending restrictions and many predicted Otani could be in line for an MLB contract of $200 million or more.
But the new CBA raises the age by two years, and also stipulates that anyone younger than the threshold must be treated as an amateur, sign a minor league deal and accrue six years of service time before they can reach free agency. That means that in order for Otani to truly cash in with a massive MLB contract, he’ll have to wait until the 2019 season when he’s 25.
Many have speculated about whether MLB could amend the rules or even create an exception for a player like Otani, who is a potentially once-in-a-lifetime talent and has clearly established himself as a proven professional.
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But Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal poured cold water on that this winter, reporting that the league is “not currently inclined” to modify the CBA and that MLB officials met with international scouting directors in December to tell them, “there is no Otani exception.”
Of course, it’s also possible that a front office could find a creative backdoor to circumvent the rules, such as the idea theorized by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs that would see a club acquiring Otani under the current spending limits, letting him play enough time to demonstrate his MLB value, and then inking him to a long-term extension that buys out several free agent years with a large guarantee.
It’s not like early-career extensions for uber-promising players are unusual in MLB, and the league can’t ethically make Otani its only player who is barred from signing one.
For his part, Otani says he’s aware of the limitations the new CBA place on his earning power, but that he’s motivated by something much more unselfish than that.
“Personally, I don’t care about the money,” Otani said. “But this is not only my problem. This is going to be for everybody who plays baseball in Japan. I can’t make a decision personally. In the future, more Japanese players are going to want to play in the MLB. And what I do is going to have an influence on them. I don’t want to make a decision for me. I want to make a decision for them.”
So, what’s going to happen? We’ll see. For now, Otani says he’s focused on his 2017 season with the Fighters and nothing more. How he builds on his near-unbelievable 2016 will be fascinating to watch. A 2018 arrival in MLB is certainly still a strong possibility for Otani—he’ll just have to stomach the financial hit he’ll take by not waiting until he’s 25.
And next month baseball fans have to stomach the loss of not seeing Otani pitch in the WBC. He may still hit for Japan, which would be a very cool thing to see. But it could have been so much more fun.
For more on Otani, visit Sportsnet.ca this Sunday to read an in-depth profile of the two-way star.
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