The 2018 MLB season is winding down, which means it’s time to look to the future.
Here are five bold predictions for the next six weeks and into October.
The Indians will win the World Series
The Red Sox, Yankees and Astros have been touted as the cream of the crop in the American League seemingly all season long, but don’t sleep on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland has the most comfortable division lead in MLB and can use the remaining weeks to ensure everyone is fully healthy entering the playoffs and line up its rotation exactly as it pleases.
Trevor Bauer’s trip to the disabled list in the midst of a career season is a big blow, but the four-to-six-week recovery timeline puts him on track to rejoin the Indians around the middle of September. That should give him enough time to make a couple starts before the post-season rolls around.
The trio of Corey Kluber, Bauer and Carlos Carrasco, in addition to the underrated Mike Clevinger, gives the Indians as strong a rotation as any team in the league. Cleveland’s starting staff leads MLB in innings pitched and ranks third in ERA.
Behind the starters is a bullpen that has been shaky this season but improved in a big way by acquiring Brad Hand from the Padres at the non-waiver trade deadline. Closer Cody Allen has been a disappointment in 2018, so Hand gives Terry Francona another option to roll out in high-leverage spots. Andrew Miller has been looking more like himself since returning from the DL earlier this month, surrendering just one run in seven outings. When he’s healthy we know how much of a difference-maker the big lefty can be in the playoffs.
Led by MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and stud shortstop Francisco Lindor, Cleveland’s offensive lineup is full of pop and playoff experience. Throw in the fact that of all the true AL contenders, the Indians would have first dibs on landing an impact player on waivers and they’re looking like a force to be reckoned with come October.
The Blue Jays won’t trade Donaldson
The Toronto Blue Jays’ 2018 season has been full of letdowns, and Josh Donaldson’s injury problems have been the biggest of them all. Entering the year, a best-case scenario would have seen a healthy Donaldson help the Blue Jays push for a playoff spot. At worst, the belief was the 2015 AL MVP could easily be flipped for a juicy package of prospects come the trade deadline.
Neither of those options have come to fruition, leaving the Blue Jays in a difficult position with the star slugger. He has been limited to just 36 games this season due to various injuries, the most recent of which is a calf strain that has sidelined him since May 28. Even when he was on the field, the 32-year-old slashed just .234/.333/.423.
Donaldson participated in baserunning drills in Dunedin, Fla., last week and a rehab assignment could be on the horizon. Reports indicate the Blue Jays are hoping to place him on waivers and work out a trade before the Aug. 31 deadline. Even if all goes according to plan and Toronto can find a trade partner, it would undoubtedly be selling its best remaining asset at its lowest value.
Alternatively, the Blue Jays could keep Donaldson for the remainder of the season and extend him a qualifying offer. If he accepts, he would remain under contract with the Blue Jays for another year, and the club could revisit trade options in 2019, when his value would likely be higher than it is today. If Donaldson were to reject the qualifying offer, the Blue Jays would receive draft-pick compensation as long as he signs elsewhere.
Keeping Donaldson comes with complications, primarily finding playing time for top-ranked prospect and fellow third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but trading a former MVP at the low point of his career doesn’t seem like smart business.
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The Yankees will lose the wild-card game
The New York Yankees have the second-best record in baseball. The reward for that success will be participating in the wild-card game for the second straight year. Facing a nine-game deficit in the AL East, the Yankees are all but guaranteed to be playing in the dreaded do-or-die contest.
While the Yankees boast one of the most fearsome bullpens in the league, their rotation options don’t inspire much confidence in a one-and-done scenario. Luis Severino, who allowed three runs in a third of an inning in the 2017 wild-card game, would have seemed like a lock to take the mound earlier this season but things have changed. Severino has been awful since the all-star break, pitching to a 7.26 ERA in his last six outings. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ figure to be rookie manager Aaron Boone’s other top starting options.
New York will face a stiff test no matter who it draws, with the reigning World Series-champion Houston Astros or surprising Oakland Athletics being the most likely opponents. The thought of having to go up against Justin Verlander and the Astros’ imposing lineup is enough to give Yankees fans nightmares, but Oakland is a tough matchup as well. The Athletics have plenty of offensive firepower and possess a relief corps that can easily go toe-to-toe with New York’s bullpen arms. If the Yankees fall behind early like they did against the Twins last year, it’s easy to envision the three-headed monster of Lou Trivino, Jeurys Familia and Blake Treinen prematurely turning the lights out on their promising season.
Extra-bold prediction: After infamously not being used in the 2016 wild-card game as a member of the Orioles, Zach Britton will give up the winning runs.
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The Dodgers will miss the playoffs
Despite still holding 79 per cent odds of reaching the playoffs, the defending National League champs are in serious jeopardy of watching the post-season from the couch.
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter play Monday two games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL West lead and one game out of a wild-card spot. The NL wild-card race is completely jumbled with seven teams within striking distance, so the Dodgers have their work cut out for them down the stretch. They would currently need to jump three teams to land a wild-card spot, including the St. Louis Cardinals, their opponent for the next three games.
Making matters worse, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been exposed as a weakness without Kenley Jansen closing out games. Jansen has been out of action since Aug. 10 due to an irregular heartbeat and was originally expected to miss about a month but he and the Dodgers are hopeful he’ll be cleared to return Monday. The type of issue Jansen is dealing with certainly isn’t something to take lightly, so both the player and the team need to be 100 per cent sure he’s ready to come back.
deGrom will win the NL Cy Young… with a losing record
If you are somehow still using wins and losses to measure a pitcher’s value, Jacob deGrom’s 2018 season has to be the case that finally knocks some sense into your head. The 30-year-old New York Mets ace leads all qualified MLB starters with a 1.71 ERA, owns a ridiculous 2.09 FIP and has been worth 7.6 wins above replacement. For all those impressive numbers, he is just 8-7 on the year.
The right-hander was 5-7 back on Aug. 3 but the Mets have managed to reel off victories in each of his last three starts. The New York offence has consistently dried up when deGrom toes the rubber and many more losses will be on the way for a team simply playing out the rest of the schedule.
Standing in deGrom’s way is Max Scherzer, who will be looking for his third consecutive Cy Young award. Combined with deGrom’s stellar campaign, voter fatigue could be the factor that tips the scales in his favour as the Baseball Writers’ Association of America could look to reward a fresh face. If he were to win the award with a sub-.500 record, he would become the first starting pitcher to do so in MLB history (former Dodgers closer Eric Gagne won the Cy Young with a 2-3 record in 2003).
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