All six division winners were completely predictable last year, but even then, the 2017 season still offered some surprise contenders.
The Brewers won 86 games and contended for a wild-card berth. The teams that beat Milwaukee for those wild-card spots were both surprises, too: the Diamondbacks and Rockies. The Twins, sellers at the trade deadline, surprised many observers — and perhaps even themselves — by making the playoffs in the American League.
More surprises are in store in 2018, it’s only a question of which teams will emerge as unexpected contenders. These teams finished below .500 in 2017 and haven’t exactly won the off-season, but each could bounce back in 2018…
New York Mets
Quietly, the Mets improved their roster in a few significant ways this off-season. Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce provide offence, Jason Vargas stabilizes their promising rotation and Anthony Swarzak deepens the bullpen.
As ever, it’ll come down to pitching for the Mets, but if the likes of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard stay healthy, a wild card is within reach.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies lost 96 games last season, and realistically they’re probably at least a year away. But as long as we’re talking possibilities, they belong in the conversation.
There’s upside in this lineup thanks to Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez and J.P. Crawford. There’s upside on the pitching staff with Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez.
Add to that veteran free agents like Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter and Fernando Abad, plus new manager Gabe Kapler, who’s willing to buck convention to get ahead. With the front office reportedly considering top free agents like Lance Lynn and Jake Arrieta, they might not be done adding yet. And Philadelphia’s farm system ranks sixth in the sport, according to Baseball America, so reinforcements are coming from within.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were more or less an average team in 2017: ordinary offence, ordinary run prevention, ordinary record. Now that they have Dee Gordon and a full season of Mike Leake, it’s not hard to envision a step forward.
There’s even some upside in the rotation thanks to left-hander James Paxton. He’s a candidate to break out even more, according to one big-league scout, and projection systems like him just as much; FanGraphs forecasts a 3.38 ERA with more than one strikeout per inning for a 4.2 WAR season.
The addition of Shohei Ohtani makes the Angels the trendy AL West pick, but Seattle’s roster has talent, too. And if they’re in it in the first half, you just know that the ever-active Jerry Dipoto will be ready to add via trades.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays didn’t add a single centrepiece player this off-season, and yet their roster’s considerably deeper than it was a year ago. The likes of Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney and Jose Bautista are gone. In their place, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson give the Blue Jays a deeper collection of position players that should improve upon last year’s AL-worst offence.
On the mound, Jaime Garcia and Seung-hwan Oh have the potential to stabilize a potentially solid pitching staff. The biggest variable of all might be Aaron Sanchez, who’s progressing well from the blister issues that sidelined him for most of 2017. If he really is back, this team could return to relevance. Granted, the division looks to be an extreme long shot given the stacked Yankees and Red Sox rosters, but Toronto could contend for a wild-card berth.
Tampa Bay Rays
OK, so this one’s a stretch. And honestly, I’m not expecting the Rays to finish above .500, let alone contend. But there’s a scenario where they do.
It starts with a incredible season from Kevin Kiermaier, their best player, and a Cy Young-calibre year from Chris Archer, their best pitcher. The Rays would likely need an unexpectedly huge year from someone — maybe Carlos Gomez or Christian Arroyo. And they’d need good health after trading away so much established talent.
If you’re assessing the Rays based on their established major leaguers, they aren’t very good. But some evaluators say their triple-A roster is among the best in the game. According to Baseball America, only four teams have more prospect capital. When you look beyond the surface to the overall depth of the organization, they’re better positioned than they first appear.
Likely to contend? Definitely not, especially in this division. But the Rays aren’t as bad as they seem.
[relatedlinks]
