During the off-season we’ll be taking a closer look at some potential free agent targets for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Today it’s Eduardo Nunez.
Player: Eduardo Nunez | Age: 30
Position: UTIL
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
2017 stats: 114 GP| .313/.341/.460 | 12 HR | 2.2 WAR | BB/K: 18/54
MLB Trade Rumors Signing Prediction
Two years, $14 million, Blue Jays
Why he’s a potential fit for the Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays covet a reliable hitter with some speed who can play a variety of positions, and Nunez has shown he can be just that over his last three seasons. The 30-year-old boasts a solid .296/.332/.443 batting line since the start of 2015, with 72 stolen bases to boot. His numbers as a not-quite-full-time player in 2017 (he got into 114 games for the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox, making 491 plate appearances) were especially strong as he hit .313/.341/.460 with a 112 wRC+, by far the best offensive numbers he’s posted over his eight-year career. Nunez barely walks at all but doesn’t strike out much either as he consistently puts the ball in play (his 85.8 per cent career contact rate is well above average) and uses his speed to his advantage.
Defensively, you can get very creative with Nunez, as he logged at least 16 games at four different positions in 2017. He has the most experience at third base and shortstop over his career, but he can be used at second base or in a corner outfield spot if needed. Teams are increasingly valuing that kind of versatility in today’s game.
The Blue Jays have been very direct about their desire to acquire middle-infield insurance this off-season behind the oft-injured Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki, and they have two gaping holes in the outfield corners as well, with Jose Bautista departed and Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carerra currently forming a sub-optimal platoon in left. Nunez would help in those areas rather nicely.
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Why he might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
While he plays a wide variety of positions, he doesn’t play them particularly well, with negative career numbers in both DRS and UZR at second, short and third. Left field is the one spot where he’s been at least average, but it’s also the position he’s played the least with only 282.2 career innings out there. With a larger sample, Nunez’s outfield numbers may reflect the below-average marks he’s put up on the infield. He’s not a significant liability in the field, but he’s also far from a plus defender.
And while his 64 stolen bases over the last two seasons are nice, Nunez rates as just a bit above average by Statcast sprint speed, which means those numbers will be difficult to sustain if he loses a step or two in his 30s. And the fact Nunez battled hamstring and knee injuries in 2017 has to be concerning for any team looking to bet on his legs holding up over a multi-year contract.
At the plate, Nunez’s 3.7 per cent walk rate in 2017 certainly leaves something to be desired, and while he’s hit 28 home runs over the last two seasons, his average exit velocity (86 m.p.h.) and barrels per plate appearance (1.4) were both well below average in 2017. He also posted a 10.5 per cent infield-hit rate this season (the league average was 6.6 per cent), which will be challenging to maintain if his speed begins to erode with age.
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And, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed out, perhaps most damning is that Nunez led baseball in a rather dubious category last year: the gap between his expected outcomes and his actual results. Nunez’s .348 wOBA and .275 expected wOBA in 2017 suggests he had a rather fortunate year and will be hard pressed to replicate those results in 2018.
The two-year, $14-million deal MLB Trade Rumors projects is completely reasonable and would likely be palatable for any team interested in him. But if Nunez’s bidding stretches into the three-year range, the team that signs him will be taking on the risk of Nunez providing only bench-player production or worse in that third season.
The latest buzz:
There has been very little of substance when it comes to Nunez rumours so far this off-season. A versatile player like Nunez would be a fit for plenty of teams, but there has yet to be any reporting of formal overtures made to his camp. With the winter’s biggest fish still available, mid-tier players like Nunez generally have to wait until the marquee names come off the board before their markets heat up.
