TORONTO – As his Toronto Blue Jays meander their way through what’s become a transitionary season at the big-league level, general manager Ross Atkins can see the outlines of the 2019 edition of the club beginning to emerge.
“You look at our team today, and a lot of it is here,” he was saying the other night. “(Randal) Grichuk, (Kevin) Pillar and Teoscar (Hernandez) in the outfield, Aledmys Diaz, Devon Travis and (Yangervis) Solarte, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Luke Maile, Russell Martin and we have a pretty good double-A and triple-A support team that could be complementing and adding to that group in some way.
“Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Relatively solid pieces to start a bullpen that we could have to build in and around it. We’d need to complement our pitching, but really excited about the progress of (Ryan) Borucki, really excited about the progress of Sean Reid-Foley, T.J. Zeuch. We’re not where we need to be yet, but I think we’ll look up in a year and feel like we have more depth, more talent, and more young, controllable talent than we’ve had in some time.”
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Top prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Anthony Alford are also sure to factor in at some point, as may some of the assets the Blue Jays get during their upcoming selloff. But as the rest of this lost campaign plays out, it’s worth remembering Atkins’ comment, since the second half this year will, in many ways, be about laying foundation for success next year.
To that end, the needs for the pitching staff, particularly the rotation, will be most pressing, particularly with Stroman and Sanchez the only two starters assured of a spot in next year’s rotation.
Theoretically, it’s possible the Blue Jays trade one of them or another controllable player in an asset reallocation transaction. But that’s clearly a secondary track for them right now, as Atkins said he’s told other teams “to frame the value for us and do the work on their end,” if they’re interested in trading for those players.
That’s GM-speak for blow us away.
So, barring a reach by a pitching-hungry team, the Blue Jays will have Sanchez and Stroman and question marks for 2019. Borucki may very well be a part of the rotation – he impressed in his debut, and one rival scout said he projects the left-hander as a solid No. 4 starter – while one of Reid-Foley, Zeuch or another prospect could also emerge.
All of which makes Sam Gaviglio someone to watch.
The right-hander held the Detroit Tigers to three runs on four hits and three walks with five strikeouts in seven innings during Saturday’s 4-3 victory, settled on Justin Smoak’s second career walk-off homer. And the Blue Jays are trying to gauge whether Gaviglio’s a long reliever/swingman type on a good run right now, or something more.
In eight starts to this point, he’s managed to go six innings or more four times, riding his predominantly fastball/slider mix to a 3.97 ERA, which is quality innings-eating if he can sustain it.
Now, exactly how sustainable that is for a right-hander who sits at 89 m.p.h. and tops out at 92 is an entirely different matter. With Sanchez needing more time for the swelling to subside in his right index finger, the Blue Jays can continue to give both Gaviglio and Borucki some run, gathering information they can use in their decision-making for the 2019 team.
Coming into Saturday, Gaviglio held opponents to a .468 OPS in his first time through the batting order, a number that spikes to .840 and 1.162 the second and third time through. Part of the challenge there is that without a consistent third offering to keep hitters from locking in on the sinker and slider – he threw 10 curveballs and four change-ups against 50 sinkers and 33 sliders versus the Tigers – he becomes more vulnerable the more batters see him.
“That’s a good question,” manager John Gibbons replied when asked what Gaviglio can do to be more successful later in games. “Where I think he starts running into trouble is when the ball comes up a little bit, or he’s not quite as sharp. He’s not going to overpower you so he’s not going to get away with the mistakes other guys might.”
Still, in flashes, the 28-year-old shows enough to keep the front office interested.
Against the Tigers, for instance, he gave up a solo shot to John Hicks in the second on a hanging slider and then in the third, Nicholas Castellanos got him for a two-run homer on a flat sinker in his second at-bat. Then, in his third time through the lineup, the Tigers went 1-for-8 with a walk against Gaviglio, including a Castellanos strikeout.
“You learn from the previous ABs, you see what works and what doesn’t,” said Gaviglio, who grinded through a bad command day. “I tried to go with the fastball in on Castellanos and I didn’t get the ball in. Looking back, it’s easy to say, ‘I should have done that.’ But the third time through, I still had some pitches I hadn’t shown him, so that always helps.
“Making good pitches and getting ahead is the biggest thing. And staying out of the deep counts. The more pitches they’re able to see, the better chance they have of timing up a pitch.”
The Blue Jays, of course, will be keeping an eye on plenty of others, too.
Grichuk, for instance, continues to rebound from his trainwreck April, ripping his 10th homer of the season, a two-run job that tied the game 3-3. Travis got the Blue Jays on the board with a run-scoring groundout, singled in the eighth and was thrown out at the plate trying to score the go-ahead run at home later in the frame. Smoak, who reached 950 plate appearances over the last two years in the third inning to trigger an escalator clause that pushed the price of his club option next year from $6 million to $7 million, hit his 11th homer to walk things off.
Playing for next year as July arrives is a harsh reality to swallow, but Thursday’s trade of Steve Pearce made it clear that’s what lies ahead.
“For me, you can’t look at it that way as a player. You can only control what you can control and try to do your best every day,” said Smoak. “I feel like we have some pieces here that are really good and are going to be really good in the future.
“Teoscar has done a heck of a job, he’s a really good player that’s only going to get better. Grichuk is starting to come into his own, I feel like, which is great. Plus we’ve got some guys in the minor-leagues that are doing really well and yeah, it’s going to be an adjustment for them, but they’re really good players. We’ll see where it takes us.”
Next year may still be a long way away, but the Blue Jays have already started on the path to 2019.
