Although it’s still somewhat unclear who initiated the process – the player or the team — the trade of Roy Halladay is close to becoming a reality.
Obviously fans across Canada are cringing at the possibility of losing the best pitcher ever produced by the Blue Jays. I offer this viewpoint to those fans who are disheartened at the prospect of Halladay not finishing his career as a Jay: it’s better to trade him now then lose him as a free agent after the 2010 season.
As much as the loyal Halladay legitimately would have preferred to stay with Toronto for the remainder of his career, his desire to win is greater. This is the way it should be for any athlete. Presumably the chances for keeping Doc were high when the team started the 2009 season strong, but the recent (and predicted by many) swoon has sealed his eventual departure.
Now that J.P. Ricciardi and Halladay have both spoken publicly about a potential deal, it will happen. Ricciardi obviously has convinced ownership this is the right time to move the icon; this combined with his conversation with Halladay directly, signifies the Toronto GM is motivated to make this move.
Although he may perform like a machine, Doc is human, and you can bet he and his family are already discussing which team and city in which they would prefer to spend the next 1½ years or longer. He will likely continue to perform well; he is one-foot out the door emotionally at this point.
The fact ownership is allowing Ricciardi to move Halladay has to be a vote of confidence for the GM. The success or failure of the returning players in this deal will shape the look of this franchise for years; you don’t allow someone who’s on his way out the door make this move. As tough as this will be for Ricciardi, he’s in a position of strength on this deal. He will receive calls from several teams showing interest and will disperse his most trusted evaluators to scout the organizations he feels are the best fit.
Since Halladay is such a known commodity, other teams won’t need to waste time scouting him. They will watch him pitch, making sure he is healthy, but will spend the majority of their time familiarizing themselves with other prospects in the system in case the deal expands.
Some opposing GMs will make offers, but knowing JP, he will be informing each of them to wait for his list of players that it will take to get the deal done. Typically he looks for quality over quantity, and in this case he will be asking for both.
Once Ricciardi has created his best possible package, he will present a list that will likely include top pitching prospects close to the majors, a shortstop and a power bat for first or third. He will also remind his counterpart of the fact several teams are waiting in line so they should to make a decision quickly.
JP might try to include one of his larger contracts in the deal to provide some financial flexibility in the coming years. I doubt he can move Vernon Wells in this manner but may be able to include someone like Lyle Overbay. This is easier to do in the off-season, however, and would diminish the prospect returns so I doubt it will be his primary focus.
The best return for Halladay will be prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. This timing allows the receiving club two opportunities to compete for a World Series title employing the best pitcher in baseball in their rotation. If the Jays cannot get a suitable package by then, a trade will be an off-season move. The Jays will try to leverage teams against one another during the negotiations, but as of August 1, Ricciardi will be limited to one trading partner via waiver claim. The organizations that need Halladay for the playoff push will never get the opportunity to claim him after the deadline.
Speaking of leverage, Ricciardi will certainly speak with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays to help drive the price, but don’t expect a move to these locations unless Halladay forces it via his no-trade provision.
Which brings me to my last point: Halladay and his agent bargained for the right to control his destiny and have the final say regarding his eventual landing spot. He can succeed anywhere, but he will likely only agree to certain teams. I don’t think he’d limit himself geographically, but I can’t see him pitching in the summer heat of a place like Texas.
Doc is more likely to want to go to an environment which suits his personality. Boston and New York are committed to winning but he doesn’t thrive in circus environments and shies away from attention when possible. My guess is Halladay’s first choice would be St. Louis — great fan support, good team and he will be reunited with Chris Carpenter. Whether they have the prospects or the budget remains to be seen.
Regardless of where he’s moved, it’s going to be an interesting few weeks around MLB.