Two years ago, J.A. Happ won 20 games and finished sixth in Cy Young voting with a season that had all the makings of a career year.
Looking back, there’s no doubt that it was a standout season, but with each passing year 2016 looks like less of an aberration. Set the wins aside, and the results are still on that level.
| ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | |
| 2016 | 3.18 | 3.96 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 1.02 |
| 2017 | 3.53 | 3.76 | 22.7 | 7.4 | 1.11 |
| 2018 | 3.84 | 3.46 | 29.5 | 6.7 | 1.23 |
“I feel like it’s similar,” Happ said after his last start. “I feel like it’s (also) not that dissimilar from last year, which I feel was a strong year. I try to get on that routine and build that confidence and try to carry that in from start to start. Just prepare your body and hopefully good things will happen.”
[relatedlinks]
Good things have been happening for Happ, who could win his 100th career game in Detroit Saturday. The same can’t be said for the 25-32 Blue Jays, creating some potentially tough decisions later this summer when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. In the meantime, though, the Blue Jays are enjoying the production of a player whose consistency stands out in a rotation that has disappointed so far in 2018.
“I don’t think he gets the recognition he deserves,” manager John Gibbons said recently. “Even when he won 20–and I know people look at the game differently with rating wins, but I don’t. Any time you win 20 games (that’s impressive). But I think he did that kind of quietly. We know how good he is. I don’t think the baseball world probably appreciates him as much as they should.”
The baseball world will likely be watching Happ carefully this summer because the Blue Jays project as sellers barring a sudden reversal and the left-hander could be one of the best arms available. Not only that, his $13 million salary is relatively affordable compared to the likes of Cole Hamels, the former teammate of Happ’s who’s now earning $23.5 million for the Texas Rangers.
With two months remaining before the deadline and most teams deep in draft mode, it’s far too early to determine what a return would look like. Still, it’s worth noting the Athletics paired 36-year-old left-hander Rich Hill with Josh Reddick two years ago to obtain a strong return from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.
[snippet id=3918627]
Happ’s value could be substantial, especially if buyers are looking to make a deal well in advance of July 31 so as to maximize the impact of their new addition. There’s precedent for early summer trades involving starting pitchers, including some notable deals. The Red Sox acquired Drew Pomeranz two weeks ahead of the 2016 trade deadline while Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel were traded July 5, 2014 and CC Sabathia was traded July 7, 2008.
Within a few weeks those rumours could pick up, but having been traded four times already, Happ’s no stranger to speculation.
“I know that stuff is going to happen and those rumours will be out there at some point potentially, but I don’t pitch with that in the back of my head or anything,” he said.
Granted, there’s also a strong case to be made that the Blue Jays should try to extend Happ given that their rotation looks uncertain after 2018. Happ and Marco Estrada will be free agents after the season, and Jaime Garcia could join them on the open market, so starting pitching should be on the Blue Jays’ shopping list.
Still, trading Happ this summer doesn’t preclude a return over the winter. In fact, the Blue Jays already traded Happ once, for Michael Saunders in 2014, only to re-sign him the following off-season.
That three-year deal has worked out as well as the Blue Jays could have hoped, with two strong seasons in the books and a third well underway, but that success means he’s an ideal fit for a contending team and at this rate the Blue Jays don’t fall in that category.
