Considering it’s largely an exhibition, baseball’s All-Star Game tells us a lot.
This year’s rosters show off 31 first-time all-stars and highlight the growing amount of Cuban talent in the game. Recent rosters featuring Evan Meek, George Sherrill and Derrick Turnbow remind us that dominant middle relief performances are as difficult to sustain as they are to predict.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch the 2014 MLB All-Star Game live on Sportsnet with coverage starting at 7:30 p.m. EST
But most of all, this year’s All-Star Game rosters reinforce the importance of the draft – particularly the first round.
While big spending landed the likes of Robinson Cano and Zack Greinke, the MLB draft was by far the most common avenue for acquiring 2014 all-stars. There are 81 all-stars this year – more than three full rosters’ worth – and 31 of them joined their current teams through the draft.
You don’t have to look far for examples. Less than a decade after being drafted, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout are becoming fixtures at the midsummer classic with three-plus appearances apiece. They’ve all stayed with the franchises that initially selected them, signing lucrative long-term deals.
It’s not just young stars, either. Derek Jeter — the undisputed focal point of the 2014 All-Star Game — and Chase Utley of the Philadelphia Phillies were first-round picks once, too, though both have since re-signed with their respective teams.
And while late-round success stories like Mark Buehrle and Ian Kinsler will inspire minor leaguers riding buses and kids dreaming big, the vast majority of stars were taken within the first two rounds. More than two out of every five drafted all-stars were selected in the first or supplemental round.
The prevalence of first-round picks in Minneapolis shouldn’t be surprising, considering that there’s a big dropoff in expected performance after the first round of the draft (the decline in expected performance even begins after the first few picks).
The All-Star Game rosters reflect that trend, with more than half of all drafted all-stars selected within the first two rounds and just six players drafted in the 10th round or later.
That’s not to say the game biggest stars were all drafted. Players outside of the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico are not draft eligible, with other baseball nations facing different rules.
International free agency produced one third of baseball’s 81 all-stars, including Cubans such as Jose Abreu, Venezuelans including Miguel Cabrera and Japanese stars led by Yu Darvish.
Yet, unlike the draft, international free agency can be extremely expensive, as the Yankees showed when they spent $175 million for the rights to Masahiro Tanaka. Darvish required a commitment of $112 million, and Cuban players from Abreu to Aroldis Chapman have also cashed in with lucrative contracts.
But each one of those players obtained far more than any American all-star. Stephen Strasburg, who’s not an all-star but probably should be, set a record when he obtained a $15.1 million bonus as the first-overall pick in 2009. That’s a lot more than Trout or McCutchen got, yet it’s not even comparable to Abreu’s $64 million deal or Yasiel Puig’s $42 million deal.
The MLB Draft itself doesn’t have the same wide appeal as the All-Star Game, and probably never will. But both events reinforce the same message: the best way to obtain impact talent is by drafting well.
