With the MLB season approaching, we asked a collection of Sportsnet’s MLB writers and broadcasters to weigh in with predictions for 2019.
How will Josh Donaldson fare in Atlanta? Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win Rookie of the Year? And who will win it all? Here’s how our panelists see the season unfolding…
ROUNDTABLE QUESTIONS
What was the best move of the off-season?
Shi Davidi
The Angels extending Mike Trout, for sure. I’d argue that no other move has more wide-ranging repercussions than that one, given how teams were salivating at the prospect of him hitting the open market. Any club that wasn’t planning to bid on one of the best players ever should just pack up and go home. In locking him up, the Angels not only secured his place on their roster, but also cut off the potential circus that might have followed, and altered the plans of so many others.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
There’s a saying in baseball that there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal. Maybe that veteran starter’s past his prime, but if it only takes a one-year deal to find out, why not? The thinking makes sense, but generally speaking it applies to aging players.
Players in their prime typically sign for more term, which is what makes the Brewers’ deal with Yasmani Grandal so promising. The 30-year-old catcher has averaged nearly 5.0 wins above replacement per season for the last four years and Steamer projects similar results in 2019. That’s lots of upside for 2019, yet the small market Brewers don’t have to take on any long-term risk.
Arden Zwelling
The St. Louis Cardinals adding a prolific slugger like Paul Goldschmidt to a heart of the order already featuring Matt Carpenter and bounce back candidate Marcell Ozuna was pretty good — inking Goldschmidt to an entirely reasonable extension, which significantly eases the sting of the cost paid to acquire him, is even better.
Jeff Blair
The San Diego Padres changed the direction of their franchise by signing Manny Machado, giving them a bona fide star to go along with a farm system that included 10 of the top 100 prospects according to some rankings. They struck when the time is right and will be a beast in 2020 and beyond.
Mike Wilner
It’s not one specific move, but the Cincinnati Reds trading for Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Tanner Roark and Sonny Gray in three separate deals with the Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees. Are those trades going to make a difference in the playoff race? Probably not. Since they play in the same division as the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs, the Reds are still likely to finish fourth. But after finishing last in the division four years in a row, at least 24 games out and with at least 94 losses each time, management decided that the fans deserve a team that at least has a chance to compete on a regular basis – game to game, if not for a post-season spot. In an era in which there are more teams trying not to win than trying to win, that’s laudable.
What are you expecting from Josh Donaldson with the Braves?
Arden Zwelling
ZIPS projects a .267/.373/.506 line and a four-win season, which seems about right to me — not as dominant as his peak, but still a great hitter. Donaldson’s 33 and coming off injury, so uncertainty abounds. But he looked like himself over an admittedly small sample with Cleveland last September, and, for what it’s worth, SunTrust Park has been a better offensive environment than Rogers Centre over the two seasons it has been open.
Mike Wilner
Assuming he’s healthy (and he has only played in eight games this spring, with only two hits), I’m expecting that he’ll be the same old Josh Donaldson that we all knew and loved in Toronto. He’s only 33, there aren’t a lot of miles on him since he was a late bloomer, and when he’s right he’s an exquisite bat. Hopefully the last two years weren’t the beginning of a steep decline off a four-year run of MVP-level performance. If I had to bet one way or the other, I’d be betting on Dondalson, not against him.
Shi Davidi
To be honest, I’m not sure. I tend to be more bullish on him having seen his remarkable peak up close, and I don’t think Alex Anthopoulos would gamble recklessly with $23 million. But he hasn’t been healthy for two seasons and you’d think it would be hard to jump in and produce at an elite level immediately after the downtime. By year’s end I’d think his numbers should be there, but I’m wondering if it might take him a while to get going.
Jeff Blair
Less than 100 games played.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
At 33 years old, Donaldson’s still young enough to make an impact for the Braves, but given his recent history of calf issues there’s reason for Atlanta to be cautious here. If the Braves get 125 games and 3.0 wins above replacement from the former MVP, I think they’d be fine with their $23 million investment. Much more than that and it’s a win.
How will the Bryce Harper and Manny Machado deals look a year from now?
Jeff Blair
Neither of their teams will have a World Series ring, but my guess is the Padres will be way happier. I just don’t trust Harper in Philadelphia. Not sure why, but I don’t.
Mike Wilner
I’m not sure contracts that big will ever look like bargains. I think the Mike Trout deal will be the only one to greatly surpass either contract (maybe Mookie Betts), but I think that to the extent that someone can be worth that amount of money for playing baseball, Harper and Machado are worth that amount of money. Since they’re both so young, there’s a reasonable expectation that they’ll both provide surplus value (when looking at dollars per WAR) for the first seven or eight years of their deals, which should make the Padres and Phillies very happy. And the paycheques will be making the players very happy. So, gruntlement all around!
Shi Davidi
Unless one of them suffers a career-altering injury, I think they’ll be fine, although in San Diego my guess is they’ll be talking about how to get more pitching. Am eager to see if Harper carries the Phillies past the Nationals and Braves.
Arden Zwelling
Good for both teams. The Phillies have a strong chance of reaching the postseason in 2019; the Padres may not get there, but will begin graduating some of their top prospects to the majors and could be contenders by 2020.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
The Phillies look like legitimate contenders with Harper, and I’m predicting another MVP season from the 26-year-old, so safe to say I’m optimistic about what he brings. As for Machado, he’s a great player in his prime, so there’s plenty of reason to expect another strong year in 2019. Now the question becomes how much pitching the Padres can add to their young core.
AWARDS PREDICTIONS
Jeff Blair
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
RoY: Eloy Jimenez
National League
MVP: Kris Bryant
Cy Young: Max Scherzer
RoY: Victor Robles
Mike Wilner
American League
MVP: Alex Bregman
Cy Young: Carlos Rodon
RoY: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
National League
MVP: Anthony Rendon
Cy Young: Nick Pivetta
RoY: Garrett Hampson
Arden Zwelling
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Chris Sale
RoY: Eloy Jimenez
National League
MVP: Anthony Rendon
Cy Young: Walker Buehler
RoY: Victor Robles
Shi Davidi
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Trevor Bauer
RoY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
National League
MVP: Nolan Arenado
Cy Young: Aaron Nola
RoY: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
RoY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
National League
MVP: Bryce Harper
Cy Young: Max Scherzer
RoY: Keston Hiura
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL: Red Sox, Cleveland, Astros, Yankees*, Angels*
NL: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*, Cardinals*
World Series: Dodgers over Astros
Shi Davidi
AL: Red Sox, Cleveland, Astros, Yankees*, Twins*
NL: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals*, Phillies*
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
Arden Zwelling
AL: Yankees, Cleveland, Astros, Red Sox*, Twins*
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals*, Cubs*
World Series: Yankees over Dodgers
Mike Wilner
AL: Red Sox, Cleveland, Astros, Yankees*, Twins*
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals*, Braves*
World Series: Nationals over Astros
Jeff Blair
AL: Yankees, Cleveland, Astros, Rays*, Red Sox*
NL: Nationals, Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies*, Cubs*
World Series: Astros over Nationals
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