A new MLB season begins this week, so we polled Sportsnet’s baseball writers for our annual look ahead at the upcoming season.
Did the Blue Jays do enough to contend? Under what circumstances would Josh Donaldson get traded? What team will surprise? Our writers weigh in before the season opener:
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The Blue Jays didn’t make any particularly splashy additions over the winter. Did they do enough to contend?
Shi Davidi
Their additions should help but ultimately, whether or not they contend rests on Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna. Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz and Jaime Garcia all deepen the roster and should collectively add wins. But manager John Gibbons will really need to put the talent together effectively as there’s no single dynamic addition along the lines of a Giancarlo Stanton or J.D. Martinez to lift the club.
Expected win total: I’m trusting the computers on this one and going with 86. That sounds right to me if things break right for them.
Jeff Blair
That depends on your definition of contend. If shot at a wild-card spot is contention, then the answer is ‘yes.’ If contend means a realistic chance of a pennant? The answer is ‘no.’ I see between 80-83 wins.
Expected win total: 83
Arden Zwelling
Yes, but not completely due to the moves they made. Look around the American League — there are a lot of bad teams out there. Assume the AL’s top four is Houston, Cleveland, New York, and Boston. The race for the second wild-card spot appears to be between the Blue Jays, Twins, and Angels. Every other AL team is projected to finish below .500 by FanGraphs. Toronto can stay in the hunt for a playoff spot almost by default.
For the Blue Jays — for all teams, really — it comes down to performance and health. The offence looks to be about league average, but long-term injuries to key contributors would send things spiraling in a hurry. The rotation could be one of the AL’s best if everyone makes their starts and pitches to their potential. Or, if disaster strikes, we could see Deck McGuire and Nick Tepesch trying to get big-league hitters out.
Toronto’s depth is better than it was last season, no doubt. But it’s not strong enough to guard against the kind of injuries this club experienced in 2017. The Blue Jays will still need their best players to be their best players if they’re going to reach the postseason.
Expected win total: 84
Mike Wilner
I think they did. There’s nothing sexy about raising the floor with relatively known commodities, but the Blue Jays firmed up the fifth spot in the rotation with a reliable veteran, added depth to the back of the bullpen, and, most importantly, got some real bats to fill spots that were absolute black holes last season. More important than that, though, is having a healthy Aaron Sanchez and Devon Travis.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
On paper, four American League teams are clearly better than the Blue Jays: Houston, Cleveland, New York and Boston. There’s no clear fifth team that’s better, though, so this team’s in the mix with a deeper roster than the one that lost 86 games a year ago. Healthy seasons from Aaron Sanchez and Josh Donaldson would go a long way toward keeping this team relevant all year.
Expected win total: 84
Injuries and inadequate depth sunk the 2017 Blue Jays. What player could this year’s team least afford to lose for an extended stretch?
Arden Zwelling
It has to be Josh Donaldson. Last year he put up five wins in 113 games. He could be worth seven or eight if he plays a full season. That kind of elite production is irreplaceable.
That said, honourable mention goes to Russell Martin. Defensively, he’s crucial to this team. And while he can be a streaky hitter, he still got on base at a .343 clip in 2017. He’s posted a 100 wRC+ over the last two seasons, which suggests he’s been a league average hitter, and well above average for a catcher (MLB catchers averaged an 89 wRC+ in 2017; in 2016 it was 87). And don’t forget what happened last season when he was hurt. In 2017, Blue Jays catchers not named Russell Martin hit .155/.217/.267 over 324 plate appearances.
Jeff Blair
Losing Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez would be the death of them; it’s the only area in which they have a preponderance of strength.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Stick with me while I think out loud here. If the Blue Jays lost, say, Marcus Stroman, then Joe Biagini would take over. That’d hurt, but Biagini should at least be solid. If they lost Russell Martin then you’d be looking at a real dropoff behind the plate. Still, by mid-season Danny Jansen could be ready. If they lost Josh Donaldson? That’s where the damage would be greatest. There’s no way to replace a six-win talent, as we saw last year when Donaldson was sidelined.
Mike Wilner
The addition of Yangervis Solarte has made the Jays more able to withstand the loss of Devon Travis or Josh Donaldson, if an outfielder goes down then Teoscar Hernandez (or, by the end of April, Anthony Alford) can step in, and the emergence of Danny Jansen gives the Jays a better insurance plan for Russell Martin than they had last year. So it really comes down to starting pitching and again, it’s a guy like Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez that they can least afford to lose. And if both go down for an extended period, that’s going to be a major issue.
Shi Davidi
We did this same question last year and if I remember correctly, we each had a different name and the Blue Jays lost them all. Losing any of Josh Donaldson, Aaron Sanchez or Russell Martin for an extended period will gut this team.
What would it take for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette to play a big-league game this season?
Jeff Blair
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. is going to be with the major-league team at some point in the summer, the timing being determined by the team’s position in the standings. I don’t think there’s any way Bo Bichette is up here.
Arden Zwelling
First, they’d each need to remain productive at the plate, and make improvements defensively. Then, the Blue Jays would need to be in a tight playoff race in August/September, and be in need of a bat, likely due to injury. That’s when things would get interesting.
But I think it’s unlikely we see either at Rogers Centre this season. The cruel reality is the Blue Jays will want to delay the start of Guerrero and Bichette’s MLB service time clocks until a few weeks into the 2019 season, assuming they’re major-league ready by then. It sucks for them, and it sucks for the fans. But that’s the way the system’s set up.
Mike Wilner
If the Blue Jays are in the race in August and Vladdy Jr. is mashing minor-league pitching, I believe we will see him called up to help with a playoff push, much like Rafael Devers with the Red Sox last season. I don’t think we see Bichette in the majors this year.
Shi Davidi
Two scenarios: The season goes sideways and the Blue Jays aggressively tear down at the deadline while Guerrero and/or Bichette have been overwhelmingly dominant at double-A and maybe triple-A; the season goes well and the Blue Jays are in contention while one or both tear through the minors, leading to a reinforcement call-up in a protected environment.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
The Blue Jays are in the race all summer. Guerrero and Bichette destroy double-A pitching, then triple-A pitching. Injury strikes late in the season opening up playing time, and there’s no better bat available. More realistically, though, I think Guerrero, now 19, and Bichette, now 20, make their debuts late next April, allowing the Blue Jays to keep them under team control for seven years rather than six.
Under what circumstances would Josh Donaldson get traded?
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Check the playoff odds a few days before the July 31 trade deadline. If the Blue Jays’ chances sit below 30 per cent, brace yourself for tons of rumours. If their chances are below 10 per cent, brace yourself for a deal.
Shi Davidi
If the Blue Jays are convinced they’re out of the race, they’ll be open for business.
Jeff Blair
I’m not certain that’s in the hands of the Blue Jays. Based on how lousy the market was for Mike Moustakas and based on how most contending teams seem either set at third base or, like the New York Yankees, have a young player on the cusp, I just don’t think there will be much of a market for Donaldson. The Blue Jays would have to sell him on the cheap and right now I don’t see the point.
Mike Wilner
The Blue Jays would have to be well out of the race for a wild-card spot by the deadline, and would have to be trending downward. Given that even in a very down year for them in 2017, they were still only five games out at the deadline, with unimpressive-looking teams between them and the last playoff spot, it’s highly unlikely.
Arden Zwelling
If, by mid-to-late July, Toronto’s odds of qualifying for the postseason are unrealistic. In that scenario, I think we’d see a significant sell-off of any veteran with value as the Blue Jays turn the page and build towards the future. The Blue Jays could even explore moving Roberto Osuna at that point. The Yankees received fantastic returns for Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman at the 2016 trade deadline. If a similar package presented itself for Osuna, the Blue Jays would have to strongly consider it.
What MLB player will you go out of your way to watch this season?
Shi Davidi
Low-hanging fruit here, but Shohei Ohtani. A fascinating athlete looking to do the seemingly impossible in today’s era of specialization.
Mike Wilner
Joey Votto. Always Joey Votto. Not just because of the passport (though that certainly doesn’t hurt), but because he’s the toughest guy in the big leagues to get out. Also Shohei Ohtani, he’s very interesting.
Arden Zwelling
Look, I’m biased. But it’s Shohei Ohtani — horrific spring performance be damned (spring stats don’t matter for anyone except for him, apparently).
If you’ve actually watched him this spring, you’ve seen the undeniable ability he has, both on the mound and at the plate. He’s just adjusting. The MLB ball and mounds are different than in Japan, the culture and lifestyle’s unfamiliar, and he’s hitting against pitchers he’s never seen before. Once he settles in, I expect big things.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
I’m not about to disagree with everyone who says Ohtani, but I’ll mix in a few others: Ronald Acuna, once he arrives in Atlanta, Noah Syndergaard, whenever possible, and Mike Trout, because he’s the best there is.
Jeff Blair
Same as last season: Francisco Lindor is why we watch baseball.
What team will surprise people, positively or negatively, in 2018?
Mike Wilner
I can’t imagine the New York Yankees will be anywhere near as good as people seem to think they will be this year. I think the Brewers are a playoff team, though I don’t think that’s much of a surprise. I think the Blue Jays are, too.
Jeff Blair
The Philadelphia Phillies have a chunk of games against the Marlins, Braves and a Mets team that is a little too trendy for my liking – although I think the Mets hold them off for a wild-card game.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
I’ll stick to the Bay Area here. The Giants won’t be as good as people think; the Athletics will be better.
Arden Zwelling
I could see the Philadelphia Phillies making some noise. I’m not convinced they’ll reach the postseason, but this could be the year they transition from rebuilding to contending. There’s plenty of young upside in the lineup including Rhys Hopkins, Odubel Herrera, and Maikel Franco. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta are a strong one-two atop a young rotation. And you can envision the bullpen working out, with Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, and Luis Garcia setting up for Hector Neris. At the very least, they’ll get to beat up on the Braves and Marlins 36 times. FanGraphs projects a 75-87 record, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Phillies over .500 and in the wild-card hunt.
Shi Davidi
I may be a year early on this, but the Philadelphia Phillies might be better faster than people think, especially if Jake Arrieta is more 2016 than 2017 and Carlos Santana keeps hitting. Rhys Hoskins is a monster, Scott Kingery is super intriguing … could be fun there.
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