DUNEDIN, Fla. – On the first workout day for pitchers and catchers at Toronto Blue Jays camp, the main discussion point in this spring of new beginnings centred around a player who didn’t even take the field – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Amidst all the change and unfamiliar faces gathered at Dunedin Stadium, the usual questions about the teenager widely considered baseball’s top prospect and his timeline to a debut were among the few familiarities.
The slugging third baseman with the potential to be a generational talent is expected to open the season in the minors so the club can manipulate his service time and delay his free agency by a year. Some six weeks before the decision needs to be officially made, general manager Ross Atkins already found himself laying the groundwork for a defence during his first gathering with media Thursday.
“Spring training is a piece of his development,” Atkins said in his first, careful, comments on the matter. “The Arizona Fall League was a piece of his development, triple-A baseball was a piece of his development and this will be more information we gain to understand what’s best for him and the next steps. He’s 19 years old (turning 20 March 16). He’s handled the expectations of competing at the highest level and being very good at that. The expectations that have been placed on him – I’m just blown away at how well he’s handled them. There’s no firm timeline on when he arrives and when he is playing in Toronto for the first time, but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman, the best possible hitter he can be.”
Development was the talking point Atkins returned to again and again, just as he did last year when Guerrero crushed his way through double-A and triple-A, slamming his head into a service-time ceiling despite meeting or exceeding all the organizational benchmarks set for him.
Asked if the organization’s view is that Guerrero isn’t ready for the big-leagues, Atkins replied: “We’ll see how spring training progresses. … First major-league spring training, first time he’s here on a regular basis, so being in and around the major-league environment and playing on a regular basis against other major-league teams will be an important part of his development.”
During the off-season Atkins said Brandon Drury is expected to be the club’s opening day third baseman and that remains unchanged – “I think that’s the most likely scenario,” he reiterated – but he dropped the standard caveats about health, performance, keeping an open mind.
And when pressed on what specific development points a premium prospect like Guerrero can gain during spring training, Atkins pointed to the way a player can improve his routines as a major benefit.
“Guys who sustain success, it’s because they’re consistent,” he said. “It’s not because they were born more talented, or potentially more healthy. It’s because their routines are better. Their consistency with their preparation and recovery is elite and the more that young players can be in and around that and expedite that, the better off they’re going to be.”
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None of that will trump the business considerations tied into the decision.
As colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith explained here, a player needs 172 days on a big-league roster to be credited with a full year of service in the majors, and once players accumulate six years of service, they become eligible for free agency.
The 2019 season is spread out over 186 days, meaning that if Guerrero spends 15 days in the minors, his potential to become eligible for free agency would first arrive after the 2025 season, rather than following the 2024 campaign.
Now, if the Blue Jays really wanted to put the screws to Guerrero, they could further try to supress his earnings by keeping him down until around June, preventing him from qualifying for an extra year of salary arbitration as a Super Two player.
Typically, players require three full years of service time to qualify for arbitration, but the top 22 per cent of players between two and three years of service time qualify a year early. That’s important because Super Two players can go through arbitration four times before entering free agency, which spikes the salaries of premium players because year-after-year they platform off a higher figure.
Josh Donaldson, for instance, was a Super Two player and earned a then-record $23 million for arbitration-eligible position players in his fourth time through the system. Nolan Arenado, another Super Two four times through the process, broke that record by settling with the Colorado Rockies at $26 million over the winter.
The number of days needed to qualify for Super Two status varies from year-to-year but usually falls between two years 120 days, or 2.120, and 2.150. Last year, it was 2.134, in 2017 it was 2.123 while in 2016 it was 2.131.
From an asset-management perspective – independent from concerns like the relationship with the player, the on-field product and other cultural messages such a decision would send – there’s a strong case to be made for keeping Guerrero under 120 days of service.
But the main prize is first and foremost the extra year of club control.
“Really, it comes back we think about how the player gets better,” said Atkins. “Everyone’s aware of timelines and the rules of the game, and as are you, as per your question, but we’re just going to focus on how we put the best team together and how we help Vladdy become a better player, and that’s not that different for any player.”
As the drama plays out, new manager Charlie Montoyo will need to massage the different interests at play.
During a recent visit to the club’s academy in the Dominican Republic, Montoyo visited with both Guerrero and his Hall of Fame father, whom he mentored at double-A in the Montreal Expos system.
Like Atkins, Montoyo stayed on message by saying where Guerrero starts this year is “all about developing.”
“He’s going to get a chance to compete like everyone else and make the club, but the one thing with Vlad, because I haven’t seen him personally, I’m going to enjoy watching him play,” he continued, adding later: “Being 19 years old, I can’t relate to that, being that good and having all that pressure on you all the time. You talk to him and he’s normal. It’s amazing. I’m impressed by how comfortable he is, at that age, with all the press and stuff. You don’t teach that. He’s born with that.”
All of which helps explain why Guerrero, even when he’s not around, is such a focal point. Everyone wants to see the star of the show, and the question will hang in the air if the Blue Jays keep it from happening.
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