Major league teams are keenly waiting to see where Shohei Ohtani choses to play. But what can they realistically expect on the field when the Japanese two-way sensation arrives in North America?
How about an arm that’s similar to New York Mets ace Noah Syndergaard?
That’s a starting point for a comparison, according to Keith Law, senior writer, scout and analyst for ESPN.
“He is among the best athletes playing baseball in the world,” Law told Buster Olney during ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast on Tuesday. “I would say there’s a lot of Syndergaard to him, at least in the fastball, slider category. I think [Syndergaard’s] fastball plays a little better. It’s similar velocity for Ohtani, but it’s not quite as deceptive, it’s a little flatter. But that sort of power fastball, power slider, it’s a lot of power across the board.”
Law says Ohtani — who throws an above average fastball, slider and splitter, as well as a curveball and change-up — is not exactly a command pitcher and has “some little issues with the delivery that concern people.” However, he envisions the 23-year-old blossoming quickly into a true No. 1 starter in MLB.
“He might be, right now, like second-year Syndergaard, but I think he’s going to get to the point, in short order, where we’re thinking about both of these guys potentially winning Cy Young Awards.”
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Trey Hillman, who managed free agent ace Yu Darvish in Japan and scouted Ohtani while working for the New York Yankees, believes there’s a stark difference between those right-handers.
“Darvish and Ohtani, at the same age point, I would put Ohtani a full half-tick to three-quarters tick ahead of Darvish,” Hillman told The New York Post. “He had more arm speed at that point. When he reached back, Darvish got it to 94-95 m.p.h. When Ohtani reached back he got it above 100, and it was seemingly effortless.”
Hillman managed the Nippon-Ham Fighters (Ohtani’s Japanese team) from 2003 to 2006, before he filled that role for the Kansas City Royals. He joined the Yankees as a scout in 2014 and now serves as skipper of a Korea Baseball Organization club. Hillman believes Ohtani can handle pitching and hitting in the big leagues, just like he did in Japan.
“He is very dynamic on both sides of the ball,” he said.
Over five seasons in Japan, Ohtani owns a 2.52 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate over 85 games – 82 of which were starts – and 543 innings. He batted .286/.358/.500 with 48 home runs, 70 doubles and 166 RBI in 403 games.
Law says there are variations in what scouts say of the six-foot-three, 189-lb. left-handed batter.
“He’s extremely talented as a hitter, [but] he’s never really been a full-time hitter because of injuries. He’s been hurt quite a bit over there … he’s lost a lot of at-bats that an ordinary position player would have had to continue developing.”
He also notes that Ohtani has plus power and is an 80 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. In other words, his speed is vastly impressive. Law revealed multiple scouts have told him they’ve registered Ohtani as running from home to first base in less than four seconds, even with an injured ankle last season.
If there’s one drawback to the tantalizing Ohtani, though, it’s that his swing is long.
“It’s a big swing and he’s selling out a bit for power,” said Law. “You probably can’t swing that way here. The first time I saw the video, I said, ‘Well clearly you have to pitch him inside if that’s what the swing looks like.’ Multiple scouts confirmed to me that’s how you pitch him. There’s a vulnerability inside.
“But they all think, if he were to come here and get 500 at-bats, he’s going to learn to hit; he would make the adjustments, he’s athletic enough and has enough bat control. He could make the adjustments to be, at least, an average major league hitter, and then the power and the speed come into play.”
The question becomes if teams actually give Ohtani 500 at-bats per season, which would require him to play almost every day. Law says organizations might be reluctant to let him do so, in efforts to keep him healthy so he can pitch every fifth day out of a starting rotation.
