After a disappointing season in Toronto, Josh Johnson is going to San Diego to re-build his value. The right-hander agreed to a one-year deal late Tuesday, turning down more lucrative offers to sign in a pitcher-friendly environment relatively close to his Las Vegas home.
Terms: One year, $8 million plus incentives. $4-million option for 2015 if Johnson makes fewer than seven starts in 2014 (via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan)
2013 stats: 6.20 ERA, 81.1 innings, 83 strikeouts, 30 walks, 105 hits, 15 home runs, -1.5 wins above replacement
Draft implications: Not linked to draft pick compensation
Roster impact: Mid-rotation starters typically cost $13-15 million per season in free agency, and the small-market Padres aren’t about to spend at that level. Instead, they add Johnson at a bargain rate, reportedly persuading him to turn down more lucrative offers for the chance to pitch in the NL West.
Johnson joins a rotation that includes Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner. Tyson Ross, Cory Luebke, Eric Stults, Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin are among the Padres’ other options, meaning they aren’t relying on Johnson to log innings. This is an upside play. If the 29-year-old pitches well, maybe he helps the Padres emerge as a surprise team in 2014. If not, expect to hear his name in summer trade talk seven or eight months from now.
Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays move on without Johnson with a rotation that will likely see a couple newcomers of its own before opening day. As Alex Anthopoulos said on Prime Time Sports Tuesday, the Blue Jays must balance risk with certainty.
“For us right now there are a lot of balls in the air and there are a lot of options and you’re trying to weigh the risk and the reward,” Anthopoulos said. “Not to say we won’t take some risk, but again it comes down to how much you’re going to be paying for that risk, the opportunity cost. There’s obviously a lot of other guys out there that we still could get.”
Johnson underwent surgery to remove a bone spur and loose bodies from his elbow after finishing the 2013 season on the disabled list.
Analysis: Even after a disastrous 2013 season, Johnson is a bounce-back candidate capable of pitching like a number three starter again. San Diego is the ideal place for him to re-build his value.
Johnson’s fastball velocity (92.8 mph), ground ball rate (45.1 percent), strikeout rate (9.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.3 BB/9) were all in line with his career norms in 2013. However, his home run rate spiked far above his career levels. That rate would have been expected to drop even if Johnson had stayed in a hitter-friendly environment, since pitcher home run rates fluctuate much more than strikeout and walk numbers.
That’s not even taking Johnson’s new home park into account or adjusting for the difference between designated hitters and pitchers (it’s easier to pitch to Clayton Kershaw than David Ortiz, after all). Petco Park suppressed runs more than any park in MLB in 2013 and has historically suppressed home run totals as well. Don’t be surprised if Johnson posts a 3.50 ERA for the Padres in 2013.
The 2015 option provides the Padres with insurance should Johnson spend much of the season injured. Much like the elbow-related clause in John Lackey’s contract with the Red Sox, this provides San Diego with additional choice going forward.
The $8 million base salary suggests the Blue Jays’ decision not to extend Johnson a $14.1-million qualifying offer was in step with the industry. Other teams didn’t appear to view him as a $14-million player in this market.
All things considered: This is an ideal landing spot for Johnson, who sacrifices some money up front for the chance to re-build his value in San Diego. The deal also makes sense for the Padres, who add a high-upside arm on a short-term contract.
General manager: Josh Byrnes
Agency: Sosnick Cobbe Sports (Matt Sosnick)
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