The tables have turned. Over the years, Seattle Mariners fans have had to cope with the reality franchise players such as Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez can’t always be retained long-term by mid-market teams. Now they’ve decided to spend big, agreeing to terms with Robinson Cano on a deal that will pay the longtime New York Yankees star $240 million over the course of the next ten seasons.
Terms: 10 years, $240 million
2013 stats: .314 average, .383 OBP, .516 slugging, 27 home runs, 107 RBI, 7.6 wins above replacement
Draft implications: Yankees obtain compensatory selection after 2014 first round. Mariners surrender second round pick (first round choice protected).
Roster impact: Cano instantly becomes the Mariners’ starting second baseman and number three or four hitter. A gifted offensive player capable of handling an up-the-middle position, Cano makes the Mariners considerably better but doesn’t turn them into a contender single-handedly.
Seattle ranked 12th among the American League’s 15 teams in runs scored in 2013, so offence was a clear need heading into the off-season. They’re not done spending yet and could still add a right-handed bat such as Mike Napoli to complement the left-handed hitting Cano.
Nick Franklin now becomes an appealing trade chip for teams seeking second base help. The 22-year-old rookie posted a .686 OPS in 412 plate appearances as the Mariners’ primary second baseman in 2013 and could be dealt. Teams such as the Toronto Blue Jays could have interest in Franklin, a former top prospect who comes with six more years of team control.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will rely on some combination of Kelly Johnson and Eduardo Nunez at second base unless they sign a free agent such as Omar Infante. Though New York’s lineup will suffer without Cano, GM Brian Cashman has been busy, agreeing to terms with elite free agents Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Analysis: Cano is an elite player — one of the game’s very best. Over the course of the past nine years, he has averaged 4.7 wins above replacement, a pace matched only by future Hall of Fame candidates Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre during that same period. Cano makes the Mariners better for the foreseeable future though the cost is extremely high.
Only one player in MLB history has signed for more guaranteed money than Cano: his former Yankees teammate, Alex Rodriguez. Questions will inevitably arise about the decision to allocate $240 million to one player at a time that so many needs exist around the diamond in Seattle. Yet it’s possible that the Mariners viewed Cano as an exceptional player and wouldn’t have allocated those dollars to anyone but him.
While every ten-year contract comes with considerable risk, Cano has been exceptionally durable, averaging 160 games played per season since 2007. Expect him to be worth $24 million per season — or perhaps even more — for the beginning of the contract. In general elite second basemen have aged well, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron has shown. But by the time Cano’s deal expires, history suggests that he’ll decline to the point that the deal will favour the player rather than the team. The Mariners pay later for the right to have Cano for what remains of his prime. (Even so, recent trades including Prince Fielder and Vernon Wells show that some $100 million contracts can be moved).
The 2014 Mariners need more than Cano to improve upon last year’s 71-91 record. They could still use a first baseman or designated hitter, at least one starting pitcher and one or more outfielders. Recent reports have linked the Mariners to position players including Mike Napoli and Shin-Soo Choo, among others. They also appear to like Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price — the top trade chip available.
Jay Z’s debut as an MLB agent was a success. Even though Cano may have fewer marketing opportunities in Seattle than he would in New York, he obtains a massive guarantee surpassed only by Rodriguez (and matched by Pujols). MLB contracts are about the bottom line, and there’s no debating that Cano obtained a massive deal. Multiple MLB agents said Friday morning that they believed Cano did well to land $240 million.
Finally, free agents such as Shin-Soo Choo and Omar Infante saw their value rise Friday, since the Yankees can re-allocate their resources toward other free agents now that their longtime second baseman has departed.
All things considered: This deal represents a win for Cano. Whether it’s a win for the Mariners depends on Zduriencik’s ability to supplement his roster with other players capable of meeting Seattle’s many needs.
General manager: Jack Zduriencik
Agency: Roc Nation Sports (Jay Z) with CAA Sports (Brodie van Wagenen)
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