Can the Los Angeles Dodgers finally win that elusive World Series, or continue to be among the most wasteful franchises in recent history? Which young stud will put his imprimatur on October? Can the St. Louis Cardinals, and in particular, one of the games most dynamic arms channel a franchise great who will be watching the post-season while battling pancreatic cancer? Will either of Russell Martin or Mike Soroka – two Canadian-born players at opposite stages of their playing careers – take a step toward a first World Series ring?
There’s a ton to mull over as the National League Division Series begin on Thursday and these six players bear watching:
Ronald Acuna, Jr., Atlanta Braves: You know the statistics, including the fact that he flirted with becoming the fifth 40-40 player in baseball history and that he joined Mike Trout as the player to have a 30-30 season before his 22nd birthday. Acuna was out last week with hip tightness but he will lead off for the Braves as part of one of the most top-heavy lineups in baseball and the guess here is the post-season spotlight will shine brightest on him, Nationals counterpart Juan Soto, the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez and Gleyber Torres of the Yankees as the highlight videos continue to serve up youth nightly. Soto’s game-deciding hit in the wild-card game was just an appetizer, folks. Acuna has a freakishly good ability to hit spin; as ESPN noted in its October lookahead, he led the Majors with 14 home runs against curves and sliders and slashed .311/.373/.547. I can’t wait to see these kids, man. Can’t wait.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers: And here you thought I was going to leave Bellinger out of the Kiddy Corps just because at the ripe old age of 24, he has a year or maybe two on some of them. Nah. It’s just that he plays for the Dodgers and there hasn’t been much to write, talk or worry about since they wrapped up their playoff berth sometime around – I don’t know? May 2? June 3? Bellinger hasn’t exactly blazed his way through his first six post-season series, going 20-for-116 (.172) including a tepid 1-for-16 in the 2018 World Series. You’re right: he’s a different hitter this season – no longer a platoon player, striking out 43 times less and posting a .979 OPS against the left-handed pitching that used to earn him a spot on the bench while providing elite defence – but he’s also tailed off in the second half, slashing .261/.371/.563 after hitting June 1 slashing .379/.465/.743. The Dodgers’ offence did them in in their last two World Series. That can’t happen again.
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Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals: Corbin received a six-year, $142-million contract to be here, as a third premier arm to go with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg and give the Nationals the kind of rotation that can match up with anyone in the post-season. He is even more important now, what with Scherzer and Strasburg piggy-backed in Tuesday’s National League All-Star Game and the former experiencing some late-season wobbles. The Dodgers are a familiar foe from his time with the Diamondbacks and Corbin has had success in 21 starts: a .228 opponents career average and seven shut-out innings in a game this May. But watch out for Justin Turner, who has almost a third (12) of the hits Corbin has yielded against the Dodgers and two of the four home runs. Corbin’s WAR (4.8) helped the Nationals amass a 21.4 WAR out of their starters, the best in baseball ahead of – yep, the Dodgers. Considering the shakiness of these bullpens, it’s the starters who will decide it.
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals: The great Hall of Famer Bob Gibson is battling pancreatic cancer, but that didn’t stop him from quietly leaving a note with his phone number in Flaherty’s locker, telling him to call any time. The Cardinals haven’t had a starter like the 23-year-old Flaherty, whose 231 strikeouts are the most in franchise history by a pitcher other than Gibson. You don’t need to do a deep statistical dive to find out how dominant he’s been: Flaherty, who had 14 starts with three or fewer hits, has been the best pitcher in the second half in the majors, with a 0.91 ERA and is the youngest pitcher in baseball history to strike out 230 and walk 55 or fewer with a 2.75 ERA. Because of the two off days baked into the series schedule, Flaherty will be positioned to start a Game 5, if necessary, after taking the ball in Game 2.
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Mark Melancon, Atlanta Braves: A strange inability to beg, borrow or steal bullpen stability was one of the factors that prevented the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz Braves from winning World Series. General manager Alex Anthopoulos probably remembers that from his days as a Montreal Expos fan but the guess here is it was modern-day reality that was behind the way he overhauled his bullpen at the trade deadline, adding Shane Green, Chris Martin and Melancon, who was 11-for-11 in save opportunities and had 10 of them in his final 16 game. The Braves know how to finish offensively: they led the Majors in runs scored (308) and home runs (94) in the seventh inning or later with Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson and Dansby Swanson all finishing in the Top 20 in the seventh or later. Each of the relief acquisitions finished with ERAs of sub-2.00. The Braves’ 19 relief losses were tied with the Giants for fewest in the NL, their .661 relief winning percentage was second-best in the NL (again behind the Giants) and only the Phillies and Cardinals blew fewer saves. Melancon and Martin combined for 46 strikeouts and three walks in 38 2/3 innings and they’ll have a say if the Braves are to eliminate the area where the Cardinals might have their greatest edge.
Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt is the most important hitter for the Cardinals, sitting in the third spot in the order. He was walked 22 times in September, in no small measure because the hitter behind him was awful: Ozuna slashed .160/.282/.340 with more strikeouts (24) than hits (16) and left 61 runners on base that left him apologizing during a season in which he clubbed 29 home runs and collected 89 RBIs. Ozuna missed the entire month of July after going on the IL with multiple fractures in his right middle and rings fingers and hit .219 after his return. He can mitigate some of the damage to his walk year with a strong post-season; most importantly for the Cardinals, he can put the bat back in Goldschmidt’s hands.
WHY CHEER FOR THE DODGERS? – Other than Russell Martin’s presence, there is really no reason. Sorry.
WHY CHEER FOR THE BRAVES? – The Tomahawk Chop is the worst … but they have Anthopoulos, Josh Donaldson, Calgary’s Mike Soroka and Freddie Freeman, who plays for Canada at the World Baseball Classic.
WHY CHEER FOR THE CARDINALS? – Meh, I don’t know. I find their whole corn-fed, Midwestern ethos tiring. But like a lot of you, I imagine I’ll be watching Jack Flaherty and asking myself: if those Josh Donaldson-for-Flaherty rumors were true … Nah. Better off not going there.
WHY CHEER FOR THE NATIONALS? – They are the erstwhile Expos. For some of you, that’s a good thing. For others? I get the whole ‘Curse of the Expos’ thing. I have an immense amount of like for their manager Davey Martinez, who I covered as a player in Montreal and Toronto. I like closing my eyes and dreaming about Vladdy, Jr., and Bo turning into Soto and Trea Turner. But in the end, it depends on whether you like schadenfreude or Scherzer.
JEFF BLAIR’S PICKS: Dodgers in four, Braves in five.
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