TORONTO – Three thousand, four hundred and twenty-four fans were in attendance when Juan Soto stepped in for his first plate appearance of the 2018 season. The low-A Rome Braves were playing their home opener, and Soto’s Hagerstown Suns were visiting State Mutual Stadium.
At 19 years old, Soto was younger than league average by more than two years. Not that the age gap posed much of a problem for the outfield prospect, who homered in his first at-bat of the season. That swing marked the beginning of an ascent so rapid the suggestion would have seemed laughable on April 5.
After 16 games at low-A, Soto had five homers and a 1.300 OPS. Impressed, the Nationals promoted him. A 15-game stint at high-A followed, and he responded with seven homers and a 1.256 OPS. Next up: double-A, where he hit two homers with a .981 OPS in eight games.
And then, at age 19, and with all of 35 plate appearances above Class A, Soto was summoned to the major-leagues.
“It’s awesome to be here that fast,” he said in the visitors’ dugout at Rogers Centre over the weekend.
[relatedlinks]
No doubt it is. What 19-year-old prospect doesn’t dream of playing at the highest level? The thing is, few of them get here. Even fewer respond like Soto, who’s hitting .312/.404/.571 with five home runs after 23 MLB games.
Around baseball, most GMs can only dream about having a prospect that advanced. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the few teams that don’t have to. Like Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s showing advanced hitting ability at a young age. Before a knee injury sidelined him, he hit .407 with a 1.124 OPS at double-A, and once he returns the Blue Jays will again face the question of when to promote him. As such, Soto’s path to the majors merits closer inspection.
A look at history helps appreciate what Soto’s doing. Here’s a complete list of 19-year-olds to hit as many as five home runs in the big-leagues in the seven-plus decades since Jackie Robinson broke the colour barrier.
Underscoring how difficult it is to succeed in the big-leagues before turning 20, this group of 16 players includes many current and future Hall of Famers. To play well at such a young age, you have to be special.
In Mike Rizzo’s opinion, Soto belongs in that category. The Nationals GM compares Soto’s ‘mastery of the strike zone’ to the most advanced young hitters he has ever known: Frank Thomas, Justin Upton and Bryce Harper.
“It’s oftentimes very difficult to bring up a 19-year-old,” Rizzo said. “That’s why it doesn’t happen. But when a player has that type of plate discipline and really knows the strike zone as well as he did. … It was pretty clear that he was going to be ready.”
“He’s a special player and a special talent,” adds Harper, someone who knows first-hand what it’s like to face the best pitchers in the world as a teenager. “We knew that he was going to be a good ballplayer and one of the cornerstones of this organization for a long time.”
Reinforcing Rizzo’s point, Soto walked more than he struck out before his promotion this year. Even at the MLB level, Soto has 12 walks compared to 17 strikeouts. Few players have such advanced plate discipline as teenagers, but the Blue Jays have one in Guerrero Jr., whose ability to lay off pitches outside the zone rivals his ability to crush pitches within it. Before hitting the disabled list, Guerrero Jr. had 20 walks compared to 21 strikeouts.
Offence doesn’t account for everything, though, and the Blue Jays have been deliberate with Guerrero Jr. partly because his defence remains a work in progress. Plus, along with those on-field skills, GMs must also weigh tougher-to-quantify questions about their prospects’ readiness.
“What’s the preparation? How’s the concentration level? The most important aspect I think is ‘what is the makeup?’” Rizzo said. “There’s (also) what we call the second deck syndrome: when you go from playing in front of 2,000 people to 48,000. It’s night and day.
“We felt that (Soto) would have the mental strength and makeup to perform at this level, but we also thought that if he didn’t perform at this level, it wouldn’t destroy him developmentally.”
Guerrero Jr. experienced some struggles earlier this month, posting a .632 OPS in the week preceding his DL stint. His knee injury represents another kind of adversity – or, depending on how you look at it, an opportunity to refine his routines before and after games. Those routines are a big part of Soto’s day, and Rizzo was impressed by what he saw from his top prospect before his promotion.
“We brought him up to play every day,” Rizzo said. “And you don’t play every day in the major-leagues unless you perform. You go from the try-hard league and the development league to the do-good league because this is a performance business when you get up here.
“We’re not developing players, especially when we’re trying to win another National League East championship. He had to hit the ground running and he certainly did.”
[snippet id=3305549]
Soto has had some help along the way. As a former first overall pick who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16, Harper’s dealt with as much hype as anyone over the years. Like Soto, he debuted on a contending Nationals team at 19, played his first game against the Dodgers and hit his first homer against the Padres. Harper sees that the talent is there, so he keeps his advice for Soto simple.
“Just keep playing the same game you’ve been playing your whole life,” Harper said. “It’s on a bigger stage, but it doesn’t really matter. Fans or bigger stadiums or anything like that. It’s what you can do for yourself and how mentally prepared you are and how good you think you are.
“If you think you’re the best, then you’ll be OK.”
Soto’s been better than OK in the big-leagues, validating the Nationals’ aggressiveness. If Guerrero keeps showing the Blue Jays a similar combination of offence and intangibles upon his return, he’ll strengthen the case that he belongs at the highest level, too.