After seeing what the market rate these days is for a young, front-of-the-rotation starter how can the Chicago Cubs not trade Matt Garza?
Industry speculation these days suggests the Cubs have been holding trade talks with numerous teams including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and yes, your Toronto Blue Jays, surrounding the 28-year-old pitcher.
Earlier this off-season new Cubs president Theo Epstein — who keeps talking like the de facto GM despite luring his pal Jed Hoyer away from the Padres and handing him the title — said Garza is the type of pitcher he can build around. And he’s right.
The 2008 ALCS MVP with the Tamp Bays Rays is coming off arguably the best season of his career in 2011, a year in which he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.258 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 198 innings, many of which hurled at cozy Wrigley Field.
But having seen what the Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres received in return for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos, respectively, the time is now for Epstein to light the dynamite stick and officially blow up his major league roster.
Like the three other pitchers cited above, Garza is a young, relatively inexpensive (he’s expected to fetch between $7 and $9 million in arbitration this winter) innings-eating workhorse.
Unlike them however, Garza has considerable experience pitching in baseball’s toughest division, boasting a career 3.34 ERA against AL East opponents including a (small sample size alert) 1.36 ERA in seven career starts at Rogers Centre (thanks to Scott Carson for the numbers).
Another key distinction between Garza and the other three is that he’s only under club control for two more seasons, whereas none of the others are eligible for free agency until 2016 at the earliest.
So where does that leave Garza’s market value then?
After taking into consideration the factors above and after looking at the returns below, the guess here is that his acquisition cost would certainly be less than Latos’ and possibly less than the other two as well, but only because we’re still scratching our head over the Cahill deal.
Trade No. 1: Trevor Cahill
Arizona Diamondbacks acquire pitchers Trevor Cahill (23) and Craig Breslow (31) from Oakland Athletics in exchange for pitcher Jarrod Parker (23), outfielder Colin Cowgill (25) and reliever Ryan Cook (24).
Contract: Signed through 2016 for $29 million with two club options beyond that.
2011 Numbers: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 207 IP, 147 K, 1.425 WHIP.
Acquisition price: Parker is a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, Cowgill is a speedy left fielder with some pop and Cook is a major-league ready bullpen arm.
Trade No. 2: Gio Gonzalez
Washington Nationals acquire pitchers Gio Gonzalez (26) and Robert Gilliams from Oakland Athletics in exchange for catcher Derek Norris (22) and pitchers A.J. Cole (19), Brad Peacock (23) and Tommy Milone (24).
Contract: Arbitration eligible in 2012, free agent after 2016 season.
2011 Numbers: 16-12, 3.12 ERA, 202 IP, 197 K, 1.317 WHIP.
Acquisition price: Cole has the stuff to be a future ace, while Norris projects as an above average starting MLB catcher. Peacock is a hard-throwing right-hander reportedly suited to the back of the rotation or the bullpen while Milone is a back-of-the-rotation finesse lefty.
Trade No. 3: Mat Latos
Cincinnati Reds acquire Mat Latos (24) from San Diego Padres in exchange for outfielder Yonder Alonso (24), catcher Yasmani Grandal (23) and pitchers Edinson Volquez (28) and Brad Boxberger (23).
Contract: Arbitration eligible in 2013, free agent after 2016 season.
2011 Numbers: 9-14, 3.47 ERA, 194 IP, 185 K, 1.184 WHIP.
Acquisition price: Alonso is a highly-touted, major-league ready hitting prospect. Grandal batted a combined .305 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs as he rose through three levels in 2011. Boxberger went 2-4 with 11 saves and a 2.03 ERA last season at double-A, while Volquez struggled to a 5.71 ERA in 2011, two years removed from reconstructive elbow surgery.
During a recent live chat at espnchicago.com, beat writer Bruce Levine suggested two young Blue Jays arms in particular might be of interest to Chicago in a possible deal for Garza.
“That’s why they talked about trading Garza, to increase their inventory. It sounds backward but if you identify top pitchers like Kyle Drabek and Deck McGuire then you have to listen. They might be the aces fo your staff for the next 6-7 years. That’s what the Cubs are doing right now.
Levine added the Cubs might also want a young centre-fielder in any package.
“They are looking at Jake Marisnick, a power-hitting outfielder who also runs well even though he is 6-4. The other guy would be Anthony Gose, a true centre fielder. These are the type of guys who would have to come back in a deal for Garza.”
Would a package of Drabek, McGuire and one of Gose or Marisnick be enough to repatriate Garza to the AL East?
Much of it depends on what the two teams think of Drabek following his disastrous 2011, but on paper the price appears steep for a player with only two years of club control.
For what’s it worth Gose, Marisnick and McGuire were recently ranked as the second, third and eighth best prospects in the Blue Jays system by Baseball America.
But after already missing out on Darvish — and reportedly Latos — Garza might now be the Blue Jays’ best and safest bet this off-season to add the innings-eating starter they so desperately need.