There are few things than can induce dread in Blue Jays fans more than an arms race between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
Having seen both teams up close recently, it’s hard not to feel queasy at a time that both rosters are fully-loaded, and maybe more to the point, constructed to be competitive for the foreseeable future.
Both AL East rivals have built their teams by drafting well, developing raw players into refined big leaguers, and using their financial advantages in the international market, even as the league began to close those avenues off.
But importantly, and relevant to the current state of the Blue Jays, both teams loaded up their rosters in recent seasons with the spoils of mid-season sell-offs when they fell out of contention.
These transactions wouldn’t have been top of mind for most Jays fans. In 2014, we were just happy to see the Red Sox (and manager John Farrell) sputtering and suffering. In 2015 and 2016, everyone would have been too caught up in the Jays’ success to worry much about the flagging fortunes of those other teams.
If anything, in the moment, there would have been a bit of glee at seeing those two teams trading away expensive, renowned veterans for what seemed like mostly anonymous minor leaguers.
But looking at the current rosters of the Yankees and Red Sox, they are replete with the rewards of those trades, and those players have become important contributors to their present success.
In 2014, as the Red Sox were destined for the division’s basement, they traded away pitchers John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Andrew Miller among others. On the 2018 roster, they have bullpen arms Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to show for those deals.
While those might not be superstars, they certainly would represent upgrades over who the Blue Jays currently have slotted into similar roles. If raising the floor is a good idea, maybe there is a better way to get to it.
Maybe even scarier is the haul brought back by the Yankees, as they scuffled to an 84-win, fourth-place finish in 2016.
In dispatching Aroldis Chapman, the same Andrew Miller, and Carlos Beltran, the Yankees brought back young, controllable and high-ceiling players who are either contributing now or providing depth in a jam-packed minor league system.
Gleyber Torres is obviously the highlight of the return from the Chapman deal, and his outstanding debut this season has been an important reason why the Yankees are off to a hot start.
But also returning to the Yankees in that deal was Adam Warren, who has been a key piece in an exceptional bullpen for the past few seasons. Billy McKinney, the current number 16 prospect in the system per MLB Pipeline, has had the proverbial cup of coffee already, and could provide depth in the outfield, or a trade chip for later if needed.
Another depth outfielder/trade candidate is Clint Frazier, who came over in the Miller deal with Cleveland. Frazier has been battling back from post-concussion symptoms this season, but he’s posted a .954 OPS in the minors, and looked like a credible big leaguer – with some understandable development required – as a 22 year-old last season.
To top that trade off, the Yankees also acquired lefty Justus Sheffield, their current number two prospect, who reputedly has front of the rotation skills and may begin tormenting rivals as soon as this season. And following him will be Dillon Tate, their number nine prospect, who could be a rotation or bullpen piece next season.
If the Blue Jays are to be serious contenders in the coming seasons, they will need to make the most of their possibilities with valuable players reaching the end of their time in Toronto. If the 2018 Jays aren’t able to claw their way back into contention – and the odds look very long at this point – then they will need to be effective in the returns they receive for Josh Donaldson and J.A. Happ, just to name two obvious trade candidates.
It should be noted that all of the notable trades above occurred within a week of the trade deadline in those seasons. While the player market has changed significantly over the past few years, and there’s a possibility that the best offers might not reach those same heights, perhaps waiting out the market and the logjam in the standings could help to increase their return.
At last season’s deadline, the Blue Jays were able to extricate Teoscar Hernandez from Houston for pending free agent Francisco Liriano, and he’s been an imperfect but essential contributor to the team this season.
To be competitive with the Yankees and Red Sox in the next few years, the Blue Jays will need to think and trade like the teams they hunt.
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