By now, we can all acknowledge that in this rational age of baseball, even casual fans approach their favourite ballclub with the cold, detached gaze of a forensic actuary.
So when it comes to the possibility of promoting wunderkind prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., many of us rationally understand all the reasons that it seems unlikely to happen.
There’s obviously the service time issues. Do fans really want to see him play as a 19-year-old, or see him in his age-26 season? Beyond that, where could he possibly play, with Josh Donaldson certainly likely to take the bulk of the at-bats at third base, and close to $25 million worth of Kendrys Morales‘ contract still blocking the possibility of designated hitter duty.
If you want to get even more granular, you start looking at who would need to be bumped off the 40-player roster, and maybe even if you have a concern that splitting up Vlad and fellow prospect Bo Bichette may have a detrimental effect on the development of both players.
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In recent days, there’s been some seemingly strategic whispering as well about the entirety of Vlad’s game, and how the defence is possibly not in the same stratosphere as his hitting. The subtext being that most of us can’t appreciate these flaws because we are only seeing gaudy box scores and tweeted cellphone videos of majestic dingers hit into a blurry distance amidst the gasps and guffaws of the attending crowd.
So maybe it makes all the sense in the world to hold the line, keep Vlad in the minors until well into May 2019 and be responsible grown-ups about this whole thing.
But with all that said … it’s time to call him up.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes the 2018 Toronto Blue Jays a better team, and a more compelling team for the fans.
The last time most of us saw Vlad, he was walking off an exhibition game, somehow imbuing a meaningless game in March with an overabundance of feelings. Since then, there’s been no indication that his learning curve is being challenged by the bump in levels, just as it wasn’t last year in either Lansing or Dunedin. Guerrero has spent much of the last two years as the youngest player at his level, and has blown past all challenges thus far.
This would sound absurd when discussing almost any other player, by why wouldn’t Vladdy be able to step up to the challenge of the jump to MLB? It’s not as though he’ll be awed by the idea of playing in big league parks, where he already spent a significant part of his childhood.
Would DHing a teenager make sense? Does it make any more sense to continue to give at-bats to a player whose first 703 plate appearances have been worth one win below replacement level? And does anyone believe that the ensuing 700 plate appearances from Guerrero, even if he struggles, would be worse? Can anyone conceive of a scenario where, given the evidence we’ve seen, that Kendrys Morales as a 36-year-old next season will substantially improve on what he’s already offered?
And if the concern is that taking the young player out of a routine of playing the field at a key point in his development could negatively affect him, the Blue Jays could certainly find a way to get Guerrero reps at third base, and possibly at first as well. These are not immovable challenges.
Nor is the money and control over the player. If the Blue Jays chose to, they could bypass the issue of controllable years for Guerrero early on by buying out his arbitration years and beyond. And they could swallow hard and allow the mistake of the final two years of Morales’ contract play out as a theoretical rather than watching it play out painfully in real time.
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That could cost the Blue Jays upwards of $50 million just to execute this roster move in the long run. But as the team considers any number of physical upgrades and capital investments around the Rogers Centre to enhance the “fan experience,” there are few that could ever pay back as richly as bringing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Toronto as soon as possible. He has the chance to be that good. Maybe even the greatest Blue Jay ever, which is an unthinkable tag to put on a 19 year-old player … and yet, still very conceivable.
If you are sitting around a board table making decisions on his future, it makes perfect sense to follow the prescribed development timelines and keep the costs as low as allowed on his initial seasons. But baseball isn’t an intellectual exercise. There’s a lifetime between now and the 2025 season, so why not give the fans what they deserve now?
Call Vladdy up. It makes little sense, but it makes no sense not to.
