The wait for major trades and free agent signings may continue for another week, but the lull caused by U.S. Thanksgiving will finally come to an end Monday. Recent history suggests the day should offer a flurry of unheralded but potentially significant moves. A few dozen players will be released by their current teams, many others will avoid salary arbitration and a handful will be traded and claimed off of waivers.
The action occurs because teams have until 11:59 p.m. ET Monday to indicate whether they will offer 2014 contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. The non-tender deadline creates pressure for teams to make decisions and leads to the additional activity.
WHAT IS A NON-TENDER?:
Non-tendering a player amounts to releasing him. It’s a specific type of release that applies only to arbitration-eligible players. Non-tendered players hit free agency early instead of going to salary arbitration — a process that often becomes prohibitively expensive for teams. General managers decide not to tender players contracts for a variety of reasons, including health, roster constraints and payroll.
Contracts for arbitration eligible players are determined based on precedent, taking into consideration previous earnings and comparable players. The system rewards playing time and traditional stats including pitcher wins and RBI, which means players can earn significant raises even if commonly-used metrics such as on-base percentage and wins above replacement suggest their performance suffered. Sometimes teams simply cut these players loose, non-tendering them instead of offering them raises following poor seasons.
If a player gets non-tendered he can still return to his former team. However, he’s permitted to negotiate with any of the 30 clubs just as any free agent would. Every year some non-tendered players rebound to produce on the field with new teams. For example, Brian Wilson, Nate Schierholtz and Geovany Soto all had productive 2013 seasons after being non-tendered last off-season.
Players who do get offers of arbitration don’t usually exchange contract proposals with their respective teams until January.
WHAT THE DEADLINE MEANS FOR TORONTO:
The Toronto Blue Jays have four arbitration-eligible players: Colby Rasmus, J.P. Arencibia, Esmil Rogers and Brett Cecil. All four are expected to be tendered contracts Monday, meaning there’s limited intrigue for the Blue Jays (Note: since the publication of this article, the Blue Jays have agreed to sign Dioner Navarro, meaning Arencibia has become a non-tender candidate).
Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors have developed a model that projects salaries for arbitration-eligible players. The model, which has become a point of reference for many MLB teams and agencies, projects 2014 earnings of $6.5 million for Rasmus, $2.8 million for Arencibia, $1 million for Rogers and $900,000 for Cecil (for the record, the Rasmus and Cecil projections look light to me given their successful 2013 seasons; I could see Rasmus nearing $7 million).
Even if the Blue Jays don’t have non-tender candidates of their own, they could talk trades with other teams. GMs often make trades on the non-tender deadline to get one last bit of value from MLB players they’re prepared to cut loose. Every GM should have an eye for potential bargains, Alex Anthopoulos included.
WHAT THE DEADLINE MEANS FOR MLB:
The free agent market will finally take shape Monday, when a few dozen non-tendered players hit free agency. Last year 37 players hit the free agent market, including a player who went on to hit 21 home runs (Schierholtz) and a pitcher who helped his team reach the National League Championship Series (Wilson). Once these players join the market, they’ll create competition for existing free agents and provide teams with more options.
The non-tender deadline also leads to a flurry of minor trades and waiver claims most years. Expect a busy Monday — and don’t underestimate the potential impact of non-tendered players.
NOTES: The Arizona Diamondbacks have decided to non-tender Daniel Hudson, according to an industry source. The sides could still reach a deal outside the parameters of the arbitration process… As expected, the Los Angeles Angels tendered Fernando Salas a 2014 contract, according to an industry source. The Angels acquired the right-hander with third baseman David Freese from the St. Louis Cardinals last month.
