Every Friday, Blue Jays Talk host Scott MacArthur will weigh in with his observations on the Blue Jays from the past week.
What a week it’s been in Blue Jays land. Very rarely do you get this much truly consequential transactional activity this early in a season.
So, here’s what I think about:
Kevin Pillar being traded to the San Francisco Giants (for INF Alen Hanson, 26; RHP Derek Law, 28; RHP Juan de Paula, 21)
This is less about the return, unless de Paula becomes a going concern in a few years, and more about getting free of a declining player. It feels disrespectful to Pillar to describe it this way because he mattered greatly to those 2015 and 2016 playoff teams, but Pillar is 30, his defence will only decline, he’s never had an offensive season at or above league average (based on the OPS+ metric, for which 100 is the league average) and he isn’t likely to start having one now.
Hanson is a transitional utility infielder; Law has big-league experience pitching in the Giants’ bullpen, including in the 2016 NLDS against the Cubs, but will begin at triple-A Buffalo; and de Paula is just a kid who GM Ross Atkins says projects as a potential starting pitcher. Translation: they’ll work with him and hope he becomes something.
The win in this deal is the roster flexibility for a rebuilding team. If de Paula throws a pitch in the big leagues, the trade becomes a more obvious win for the Blue Jays.
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After trading Pillar, Atkins turned around and signed Randal Grichuk to a five-year, $52-million contract extension through the 2023 season.
A few things:
This is not an overpay. And, no, this opinion is not me being a newly hired Rogers employee shilling for the front office. I believe this and I’ll tell you why.
Let’s use the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric, which is an accumulating calculation used to determine the number of wins (or, if one is a negative-WAR player, losses) a player is worth to his team. Per FanGraphs, in Grichuk’s four full big-league seasons he’s been anywhere from a 1.4-WAR to a 3-WAR player. One win, or 1WAR, is worth approximately $8 million to $10 million to a team. My point being, if we saw it off and say Grichuk is about a 2-WAR player, by rights he earns $16 million to $20 million per year in free agency.
From Grichuk’s perspective, he takes the security of $52 million guaranteed knowing he could outperform the contract.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, they pay Grichuk a health sum on a long-term knowing he could already have reached his ceiling as a 25-home run guy with a sub-.300 on-base percentage (OBP).
You’ll notice the contract is front-loaded, as first reported by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. Grichuk will be paid less than $10 million in each of the contract’s final three seasons, meaning Grichuk should be easily tradeable if he starts to block emerging prospects from playing time.
Grichuk is off to a great start this season but, otherwise, so far this team can’t hit.
The offence is supposed to be stronger than the pitching.
A little more than a week into the season the Blue Jays rank: fifth-last in batting average (.190), seventh-last in on-base percentage (.275) and seventh-last in slugging percentage (.324). It’s hard to believe but, yes, there are teams off to worse offensive starts than the Blue Jays. It just seems so bad because in the eight games they’ve played the Blue Jays have been no-hit once into the ninth, once into the seventh and twice into the sixth.
The starting pitchers have been a boon, led by Matt Shoemaker’s 14 scoreless innings. Toronto’s starters lead the majors with a 1.41 ERA through eight games, rank fourth in innings pitched (44 2/3) and sixth in opponent’s batting average (.188).
The good news is the offence will come around. The bad news is the pitching won’t keep up this pace. And isn’t that the case with mediocre teams? Very rarely do they put all facets of the game together at the same time and the results tend to reflect this truth.
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Why did Socrates Brito hit second in his Blue Jays debut?
I don’t know and I’m not going to attempt to rationalize it. There’s been a lot of hype, for some reason, about this acquisition. I’m not buying it and I’ll be more than happy to admit, right here, that I was wrong if I’m proven such.
Brito had a terrific year with the Arizona Diamondbacks’ triple-A affiliate in Reno last season, which included 17 home runs and a .383 on-base percentage. This must be from where the excitement comes.
The feeling, publicly at least, is Brito hasn’t been given an adequate big-league opportunity. Perhaps he’ll get a stretch of time here. He’ll need to take advantage quickly, though, because the Blue Jays will require 40-man roster availability for the eventual arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they’ll require 25-man active roster availability for Ryan Borucki and Clay Buchholz (likely accomplished with the optioning of two pitchers) and, should they choose to call him up, Jonathan Davis when his sprained ankle is healed. Not to mention the decisions the club ultimately will have to make when Devon Travis (knee) and Dalton Pompey (concussion) require reinstatement to the 40-man. Clayton Richard (knee) is also injured, but his return will be after Borucki’s and Buchholz’s.
