Predicting the specifics of the July 31 trade deadline would be an impossible task even for the most plugged-in general manager.
But even if the deadline day details won’t be known until after Monday at 4 p.m. ET, we can make some educated guesses about the day ahead based on trades and trends observed leading up to the 31st…
Relief arms will move
One consequence of baseball’s ever-expanding bullpens? There’s always room to improve on your seventh or eighth reliever.
As such, relievers become trade-deadline currency, and many prominent relievers have already moved this month. Among them: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, David Phelps, Sergio Romo, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer, Anthony Swarzak, Pat Neshek, A.J. Ramos, Justin Wilson and, as of Monday morning, Addison Reed.
More trades will follow Monday, with right-handers Brandon Kintzler and Joe Smith on the market along with left-handers such as Brad Hand and Zach Britton.
Head-scratchers becoming rarer
Generally speaking, teams will make defensible, well-reasoned moves. Front offices are driven by rational thought, and that leads to fewer perplexing trades.
That’s not to say every trade works out — even the most reasonable deals can look lopsided after a year or two — but you rarely see teams surrender valuable players or prospects without a clear justification for doing so.
MLB owners could theoretically complicate matters at the deadline, but there’s no Mark Cuban-type openly stirring things up, and there’s no owner vulnerable enough to make an Expos-style deal and move Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon.
Intra-divisional trades becoming more common
As front offices have modernized, intra-divisional trades have seemingly become more common. Already this month, the White Sox sent Melky Cabrera to the Royals, the Marlins sent Ramos to the Mets, the Phillies sent Howie Kendrick to the Nationals and, in a lesser move, the Yankees sent Rob Refsnyder to the Blue Jays. As a bonus, the White Sox sent Jose Quintana across town to the Cubs in a rare intra-city trade.
All told, general managers seem a little less worried about optics, a little more open to finding the best possible fit.
Slow market for right-handed power?
If the J.D. Martinez trade offers any hints, there’s just not that much demand for power right-handed bats. The Tigers acquired infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King for Martinez – an initially underwhelming return for one of the top power bats available.
The modest return for Martinez could be viewed as the continuation of an off-season trend that saw most power bats struggle in free agency. If that trend continues Monday, powerful right-handed hitters such as Mike Napoli and Steve Pearce might not have tons of pull in trade talks.
What about Dodgers and Astros?
On paper, the Dodgers and Astros are set. They’re already so far ahead in the standings that they can coast to division titles while their best players, Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Correa, respectively, recover. They’ll play in the Division Series regardless of what they do at the deadline.
And yet the goal isn’t to reach the playoffs. Lesser teams like the Royals and Diamondbacks can focus on playoff odds all they like; for L.A. and Houston the World Series is a legitimate goal. With that in mind, the Dodgers and Astros should look to add to their already-impressive rosters in preparation for deep October runs.
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