I think we’re safe in saying that this is the year of the rookie.
Just look at Kris Bryant, Billy Burns, Joc Pederson, Steven Souza Jr, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Heston, Roberto Osuna, Noah Syndergaard, Lance McCullers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Mike Montgomery, Andrew Heaney … and I can keep going.
In the past, fantasy owners have been advised that if you’re picking up a rookie, especially a starting pitcher, it’s probably for the better if you hold off putting them in your lineup right away. ‘Get a look before making a decision on getting them into your lineup’ is what we’d usually say. This year that advice hasn’t really worked out. The players are getting called to the majors and are contributing immediately.
The latest prospect to make the jump and have success right away is Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola. As Dan Riccio and I told you on The Fantasy Show over the weekend, starting Nola against the Tampa Bay Rays made a lot of sense and he didn’t disappoint last night, allowing one run – a Nate Karns homer! – in six innings with six punchouts and one walk.
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Nola was a first-round pick of the Phillies in 2014 and has quickly shot through the ranks, posting a 92-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 109.1 combined innings this season between double-A and triple-A. He sits around 93-95 miles per hour with the fastball and boasts a changeup that should be a major-league quality offering. Unlike the Syndergaards and McCullers of the world, Nola isn’t described as a flashy top of the rotation prospect; instead, he profiles as an inning-eating number three starter who has great command and the ability to get his share of whiffs.
With the outing, Nola has thrown a combined 115.1 innings this season and with news that his innings will be limited to around 170 again, Nola could be due for another eight or nine starts with the big club. If you’re solely looking for wins the rest of the way, this isn’t the play for you. The Phillies stink. But, if you need to stabilize your staff, Nola appears to be a fine pickup in most leagues. I’d drop Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, or Doug Fister for him.
On to this week’s waiver wire targets!
Marco Estrada, SP (26 percent owned)
What if I told you that Marco Estrada was a top 40 fantasy starter? What if I told you that he was having a better season than James Shields, Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez? Well, he is.
After shutting down the Rays to the tune of eight scoreless innings with five strikeouts on Sunday, Estrada now holds a 1.67 ERA over his last six outings with 27 strikeouts and 10 walks during that stretch.
Over those six starts, Estrada has thrown his changeup 169 times and opponents are batting .157 against it.
We’re starting to learn that Estrada has one of the better changeups in baseball and when he’s locating his fastball, the right-hander has the ability to rack up the Ks.
Hopefully for Estrada, Dioner Navarro doesn’t get traded before the non-waiver trade deadline because the two have developed good chemistry this season. At the very least, Estrada should be streamed in 10-team leagues when he has a favourable matchup.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS (16 percent owned)
I remember being asked a question at a Pitch Talks event before the season about what type of season Jung Ho Kang could have. I said that with a full amount of plate appearances, Kang could hit 20 homers and steal you close to 10 bases. He’ll probably hit the steals total but the home run prediction was a stretch.
Kang didn’t play a ton in April but his playing time has grown and with Josh Harrison recovering from a torn thumb ligament and Jordy Mercer out six weeks with an MCL sprain, Kang is Pittsburgh’s starting shortstop for the foreseeable future.
Shortstop is a terribly weak position, and Kang could add a nice power/speed combo for your lineup as the fantasy playoffs draw closer.
After two more hits on Tuesday, Kang is slashing .352/.435/.537 this month with two triples, one home run and 11 runs scored. The hope is that with everyday at-bats, Kang can lower his 20 percent strikeout rate and his 52.9 percent groundball rate, but over the last week, it’s been nice to see him batting mostly 5th in Clint Hurdle’s lineup.
Taylor Jungmann, SP (24 percent owned)
This season, the Milwaukee Brewers needed spot-starters on two separate occasions. Taylor Jungmann was overlooked both times. On June 7th, Jungmann finally got the call and held the Pirates to one run in seven innings on Sunday.
The ground ball specialist is 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA and WHIP of 1.02 in his first eight major league starts. Keeping the ball on the ground is crucial in Miller Park and while Jungmann has been limiting the fly balls to this point, the numbers do suggest that he’s getting a bit lucky in that category.
Still, Jungmann should be owned in NL-only leagues and 14-team or deeper formats. I don’t think he will have a hard time keeping a place in the starting rotation with Matt Garza just back from the DL and Wily Peralta rehabbing in the minors.
The trade deadline hits a week Friday, and I’d think the Brewers will move at least one starter, whether it be Mike Fiers, Kyle Lohse or Garza.
Stephen Piscotty, OF (7 percent owned)
Piscotty was drafted as a third baseman but defensive issues forced him to the outfield, until about two weeks ago, when the Cardinals shifted him to first base in triple-A out of necessity.
With Matt Adams injured, the combination of Mark Reynolds, Dan Johnson and Xavier Scruggs just haven’t cut it, so Piscotty was called up by the Cards and made his debut in left field Tuesday night, allowing Matt Holliday to DH in an American League ballpark.
The top hitting prospect will play some left field but he’ll mostly appear at first base, following 87 games in triple-A where he batted .272 with 11 home runs and five steals.
Based on his minor-league profile, Piscotty could be a nice source of doubles while hitting the occasional round tripper. He’s worth a shot in NL-only leagues for now.
