If you’re one of the many fantasy players — like me — who decided to take a chance on Jose Fernandez in the middle of your draft, your patience is soon to be rewarded.
During the Marlins TV broadcast on Monday night, Fernandez indicated that he’s going to make his return from Tommy John surgery on July 2nd against the San Francisco Giants. The plan is for Fernandez to make three more rehab starts including today for Triple-A New Orleans where he’ll throw about 80 pitches and he’ll get up to 100 by the time he’s ready to make his season debut next month. Fernandez says his arm strength and stamina are ready right now, and even though he’s reached 97 on the gun during his rehab appearances, he’s been “holding back.”
With the Marlins sitting eight games below .500 and a pretty good lock not to make the post-season, the team will rightfully take an extreme cautious approach with their prized right-hander, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have fantasy value right off the top. Others will note that you shouldn’t expect much right away with Fernandez coming off the injury but remember this is Jose Fernandez we’re talking about. Fernandez has recorded 257 strikeouts in his first 224.1 innings as a big-league pitcher, with a 2.60 FIP and an 8% walk rate. When healthy, he can contest for top pitcher in the majors and that’s why you took a flier on him back in the spring.
As for projecting Fernandez the rest of the way, that’s the tough part. His innings will be limited at the beginning, as they should, which means we might be getting anywhere from 80-100 innings this year if all goes well. But if the Fernandez we’re about to get is the Fernandez we’ve been so privileged to watch pre-Tommy John, those innings could very well push you into the fantasy playoffs. If you’ve been blessed with a terrific starting staff and you feel the need to trade Fernandez for a bat, I think his value is high enough at this point where you could make the attempt. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the ride.
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS (9 percent owned)
The Washington Nationals’ super-utility man made his premier appearance at first base over the weekend with Ryan Zimmerman sidelined, and over the last week he’s started at first, second and shortstop. There’s even been talk of plugging Espinosa in left field to fill the void of Jayson Werth’s absence. Despite Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond and Anthony Rendon occupying 75 percent of the Nats infield, Matt Williams is finding playing time for Espinosa who gathered five hits on Tuesday to bring his average up to .267. Espinosa’s plate discipline is making it much easier to plug him into your lineup. His strikeout rate has dropped nearly 12 percent from last year and currently sits at 21.8 in large part to making much more contact, especially at pitches thrown outside the strike zone. He’s also using the entire field, increasing his opposite field rate nearly 8 percent, and although he’s not running like he used to, Espinosa is on track for another 15+ home run season. With the improved contact at the plate, he makes for a nice middle infield play.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B (21 percent owned)
Just outside the top-10 among fantasy second basemen, Forsythe appears to be breaking free from his role of being a known utility man over the years. Forsythe, who hasn’t lost playing time to Nick Franklin, is up to seven home runs with five stolen bases and is making much better decisions at the plate, especially against right-handed pitching. Forsythe is a .229 career hitter against righties, but this year he’s hitting .288 while maintaining a .253 average against lefties, who he’s hit much better over his career. Forsythe’s strikeout rate is down six percent from last year and being more selective at the plate has allowed his fly ball and ground line drive rate to increase year over year with his ground-ball rate slightly decreasing. I’ve been waiting for Forsythe to come back down to earth but the consistency has been there for the first 2 ½ months of the season.
Charlie Morton, SP (30 percent owned)
Morton has battled injuries over his career but the right-hander is healthy and he just won his fifth consecutive start on Tuesday by blanking the White Sox over seven innings while striking out three. How is Morton holding a 1.63 ERA? His heavy sinker is at the forefront of his success in 2015, generating over 73 percent groundballs with the pitch, holding opponents to a .250 average with a .267 BABIP. If he qualified, Morton would lead the entire majors with a 28.3 percent soft-hit percentage. With a solid ERA and WHIP, the only thing you’re not really getting from Morton is strikeouts, but his current K/9 and swinging-strike rate are below his career average, suggesting there could be room for improvement in those two departments. Morton is pitching well, his offense has found its groove and the bullpen has shown it can protect a lead. Morton has fantasy value.
Rougned Odor, 2B (22 percent owned)
A triple slash of .144/.252/.233 gave the Texas Rangers enough ammunition to send Odor down to the minors in mid-May but after impressing in Triple-A, Odor was recalled on Sunday and collected three hits on Monday in his first game back. He’ll get the bulk of the playing time at second base going forward. What made Odor a sleeper heading into the season was his surprising power as a 20-year-old in 2014 where he hit 9 home runs in 417 plate appearances. He’s only hit one out of the park so far this season, but I agree with projections that have Odor finishing with close to 10 round-trippers the rest of the way. His plate discipline numbers weren’t that great but remember that the Rangers rushed him up to the majors out of necessity last season. Perhaps a stint in the minors is exactly what Odor needed to get back on track and if can improve his on-base skills, the speedy Odor could also wind-up with double-digit steals.