ARLINGTON, Texas — Sunday night brings as big a game as John Gibbons’ Toronto Blue Jays have ever played, and if his club is going to get its post-season back on the rails, the manager has a pretty simple idea of how they might do it.
“I think we need a big outburst with the bats and to score a lot of runs,” Gibbons said. “If you look at our season, we win when we score in bunches. That’s kind of our trademark.”
Enter Texas Rangers Game 3 starter Martin Perez — a 24-year-old left-hander from Venezuela who was once ranked as a top-20 MLB prospect by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Perez has never quite lived up to that billing, managing a 4.22 ERA across parts of four seasons in the majors, but he has been quite good at times. Take April 2014 as an example, when he threw back-to-back complete-game shutouts shortly before blowing out his arm and going under the knife for Tommy John surgery.
The Rangers are hoping Perez will be more of that guy Sunday night, the one they valued enough to sign to a four-year contract before he even hit arbitration, and less of the guy who was feasted upon this season by right-handed batters, who hit .300/.352/.425 against him.
Perhaps this is a good time to remind you that the Blue Jays are rich with power-hitting right-handers in the heart of their order, and hit .278/.354/.463 as a team against southpaws throughout the 2015 season. Perhaps it’s also a good time to mention that Josh Donaldson, who has faced Perez more than any other Blue Jay, is 5-for-13 in his career against him, with three doubles and a home run. And while we’re mentioning things, we could point out that Perez struggled with his command down the stretch this September, and that Toronto was one of the most patient teams in the majors against left-handers this season, working an MLB-best 10.2 per cent walk-rate and .354 on-base percentage.
As far as matchups go, it’s less than ideal for Perez and the Rangers.
“It’s another one of those guys that’s injured, has Tommy John, comes back, and there’s no measure for what he’s going to be when they get back to this level, and then learn how to pitch at this level again,” Rangers manager Jeff Banister said of Perez’s command issues. “So, it was one of those situations where he had to go figure out what he was good at again. And as he learned that, he gained more confidence in it and became more consistent.
“And again, I think he learned what his intentions were, and then as he was confident, he gained some conviction, which has allowed him to be able to execute pitches better.”
Of course, Perez is still a good pitcher. He had an excellent August, in which he made five starts, never surrendering more than three earned runs. If not for a disastrous one-inning, eight-run outing against the Yankees this July, just his third after returning from surgery, Perez’s numbers would look a lot better than they do on the surface.
No recovery from Tommy John is ever easy, and Perez says he’s been getting more and more comfortable with every outing.
“It’s not easy to be out for 14 months and then come here again and do what I do,” Perez said. “But I feel good. I’m just going to go out there tomorrow and do my job and do my best.”
Perez has been fairly judicious with his pitches in 2015, leaning on his sinker about 36 per cent of the time, while mixing in his four-seamer (21 per cent) and change-up (22 per cent) at nearly equal rates after that. He does flash a slider and curveball occasionally, but he hasn’t thrown them too much this season, which is typical for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Much like his mound opponent Sunday night, Marco Estrada, Perez’s best pitch is likely his change-up, which has earned a 14 per cent whiff rate in 2015 and generated a swing from batters more than half of the time. The best plan for the Blue Jays may be to stay patient and try to force Perez to throw his four-seamer, which is much more hittable.
While Perez’s change-up is strong and his sinker generates a groundball 75 per cent of the time it’s put in play, his four-seamer has been squared up for a line drive 33 per cent of the time it’s been hit, which has allowed opposing batters to put up a robust .355 batting average against the pitch.
Of course, Perez has had the benefit of watching the Blue Jays’ plate approach for two games in Toronto, and says he’s got an idea of how he wants to go after Toronto’s dangerous lineup.
“I think I have to attack. That’s the key,” Perez said. “I have my plan for tomorrow. I just want to focus down in the zone and throw that pitch where I want to. Command my pitches, and at the end of the ninth we can get a good result.”
For the Blue Jays, who have just five hits in 25 at-bats from their core group of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki this series, that result absolutely must end up in their favour. There is no more margin for error. The club needs to discover its offensive spark, and fast.
“Their pitching’s really shut us down the last two games, so we need to [hit] to win,” Gibbons said. “And I think, hopefully, we can do it one time, you know, catch our breath a little bit and gain a little confidence. That’s what it’s going to take because really that’s the identity of our club.”