NL EAST
ATLANTA BRAVES
An off-season that brought the Upton brothers into the same outfield is an upgrade. Justin dropped almost 100 points off his slugging percentage in his sixth and final year with Diamondbacks and struck out 100-plus times for fifth straight season. Yet a change of scenery might just be what he needs, and he’s projected by Bloomberg Sports to hit 28 home runs, 84 RBIs and .854 OPS (all projections via Bloomberg).
Brother B.J. changes leagues for the first time after time – and patience – ran out for him with Tampa Bay. He came within a pair of home runs of his first 30-30 season, and his 21 home runs second half in 2012 was tied for third most in the Majors. Combined with Jason Heyward, the Braves should get a lot of offence from their outfield.
Closer Craig Kimbrel is one of baseball’s best and projected to have 40-plus saves with a sub-1.00 WHIP and strikeout rate of more than 15 K/9 … This team will battle the Nationals for top dog in the division for most of the season, but might be a little short.
MIAMI MARLINS
Underwent yet another off-season fire sale, flipping two fifths of their rotation, an All-Star shortstop and a super utility player to Toronto for a parcel of top prospects and shaved $44.9 million off their 2013 payroll in one deal.
The only real piece of any consequence that remains is Giancarlo Stanton, coming career-highs with 37 home runs and .969 OPS. The sky is the limit and he projects out to 42 home runs with 100-plus RBIs — if he gets anything to hit … Marlins are hoping that Jacob Turner, acquired from the Tigers at last season’s trade deadline, will live up to his top prospect status and could thrive in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Henderson Alvarez could also get his young career back on the rails with a change of leagues. His strikeout rate dropped from 5.7 K/9 to 3.8 K/9 while his opponents’ OPS jumped from .717 to .812 as he allowed the seventh-most home runs in the A.L. with 29 … This will be a very long year in South Florida.
NEW YORK METS
They also dipped into the Blue Jays’ vast chest, picking up three top prospects in exchange for Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey … Will start the season with David Wright at less than 100% after injuring his ribs during the WBC. When healthy, he’s an automatic 100-plus RBIs and .900 OPS. Without him, there’s a big hole in the middle of the lineup.
Across the diamond, first baseman Ike Davis bounced back from Valley River fever to slam 27 of his career-high 32 home runs over his final 98 games. He also projects to reach close to 100 RBIs, but that number may fall if Wright misses time.
With Dickey departed, Jonathon Niese takes the number one slot in the rotation. Had a career-high 190.1 innings a year ago but that will now be expected to push over 200 this season. Is he up to it? … Fellow starter Matt Harvey impressed in his 10-start MLB debut and it’s expected he’ll win 12-15 games. That might be a tall order for a sophomore on an average team.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Like the Yankees in the A.L., this veteran roster is starting to show its age, and injuries are starting to cut into production … Roy Halladay made just 25 starts a year ago, posting his highest ERA in 12 seasons. They have to hope that last season – in which he missed time with a bad back – is just a one-year blip and not the beginning of the end for one of the best starters of his generation.
Cliff Lee takes over as the ace, but he’s coming off just six wins a year ago, with 11 quality starts that ended in a no-decision. With any form of support, he should be good for at least 12 wins…Cole Hamels is an automatic for 20 quality starts, 15 wins and an ERA in the mid-3’s. He would be the ace on the majority of other teams
Michael Young joins the majors’ oldest infield (average age of 34.3 years old) with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Health, once again, will determine their level of effectiveness … Could this be the year that Domonic Brown finally realizes his vast potential?
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
With the National League’s best young starting pitcher — Stephen Strasburg — and best everyday player — Bryce Harper, the sky is the limit for this franchise. There is still a reported innings limit in play this year for Strasburg, which apparently jumps up to just shy of 200, which projects his numbers out to 16 wins, 244 K and 1.09 WHIP. It will interesting to see if they allow him to surpass that threshold.
Harper, winner of the Rookie of the Year as a teenager, still has loads of upside, just don’t expect him to turn into Mike Trout this season. He should be knocking on the 30-plus home runs, 100-plus RBI door in the not-too-distant-future.
Gio Gonzalez jumped leagues and won 21 games, and it appears he was built to pitch in the non-DH league. If he can add a little more gas to his heater, he’ll be in the Cy Young debate again…The left side of the infield … third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and shortstop Ian Desmond could easily combine to hit close to 60 home runs and take some of the offensive load off the shoulders of young Mr. Harper.
NL CENTRAL
CHICAGO CUBS
As Cubs president Theo Epstein found out, you can’t rebuild a perennial loser overnight. They lost 100-plus games for the first time since 1966, and their World Championship drought stretched to 105 years, but there are starting to be signs that the Cubbies are being steered in the right direction.
Shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo – both just 23 – are the cornerstones of this franchise’s immediate future. Castro is still mistake-prone in the field, most likely due to the weight of the seven-year, $60 million extension he signed mid-season. Rizzo, who was held back to start last season, is primed to break out, his numbers projected out to 27 home runs, 95 RBIs and an .809 OPS.
This team will only go as far as its pitching and unless Matt Garza can recapture the success he had previously with Tampa Bay, he only appears to be a .500 pitcher at best and will slide down in the rotation behind free agent pick up Edwin Jackson and star-in-waiting Jeff Samardzija.
CINCINNATI REDS
Two one-and-done playoff appearances in the last three seasons haven’t tempered the enthusiasm of manager Dusty Baker, who has guided his team to success even as his roster gets younger every year.
Toronto-born first baseman Joey Votto is still the straw that stirs the offensive drink with the Reds. He still posted an OPS over 1.000 despite suffering through knee problems that required two in-season procedures. His career lefty vs lefty numbers are ridiculous – .304/.415/.553 – and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Jay Bruce is finally living up to his vast promise and has seen his home run totals climb in each of his five MLB seasons, from 21 in 2008 to 34 last season. In 2013 that projects out to 38, with a .879 OPS … Setting the table for those two is All-Star Brandon Phillips, as a complete a second baseman as there is in the N.L …
The starting rotation is solid, but the main man on the mound is left-hander Aroldis Chapman, who will remain in the bullpen after auditioning for a starting role.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The season begins with the cloud of drug-use suspicion still hanging over star slugger Ryan Braun despite him beating a positive test in December 2011 on a technicality. Now his name has surfaced again with a connection to a Miami clinic under investigation. He was able to better his 2012 MVP numbers last season despite slugger Prince Fielder defecting to the American League.
Aramis Ramirez finally put together a monster offensive season. His 50 doubles led the N.L. and he drove in 100-plus runs for the seventh time in his career. His numbers are projected to drop as he reaches his mid-30’s this season … Ace of the rotation Yovani Gallardo has turned into one the steadiest starters in baseball, piecing together the 10th most quality starts (65) over his last three seasons.
Canadian John Axford is still a top-tier closer, but his ERA jumped almost three runs higher than his breakout 2011 season.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Over the last two seasons, the Pirates started fast and looked like they would finally break their long string of losing seasons that began in 1993, only to fade badly down the stretch. With basically the same roster intact, save for the acquisition of Canadian catcher Russell Martin and left-hander Francisco Liriano, they will take another run at .500.
Andrew McCutchen has blossomed into one of the top five-tool centrefielders in the game. His OPS jumped from .820 to .953 and he set career-highs with 31 home runs and 96 RBIs. At 26, he is coming into his own … The Pirates have to hope that Travis Snider finally realizes the vast potential that failed to materialize with the Blue Jays. He hit just one home run with nine RBIs in 50 games following the trade deadline deal.
Pedro Alvarez will never be expected to chase the batting crown, but his 30 home runs last season finally made people live with his massive strikeout totals … A.J. Burnett finally showed some of his vast skills after getting chased out of the Bronx and is the ace by default.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Year one in the post-La Russa era saw the Cardinals continue their winning ways, making the post-season for the ninth time in the last 13 seasons. Matt Holliday is still their biggest offensive force, although back issues are starting to become a concern. He still projects out to be a 100-plus RBI guy, although he’s now walking less and striking out more.
Yadier Molina is the top defensive catcher in the game, and his bat is finally catching up. His career-high 22 home runs was fifth-most among MLB catchers … Adam Wainwright is now a full season removed from Tommy John surgery and regained his “feel” during the second half of last season. He remains the ace after Chris Carpenter’s physical maladies have shelved him for likely the entire season, perhaps his career.
David Freese continued his 2011 World Series heroics by setting career-highs in most offensive categories and finally putting health concerns behind him…Closer Jason Motte had an elbow setback in the spring may not be ready to go on Opening Day.
NL WEST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Aaron Hill rediscovered his game and has flourished under manager Kirk Gibson, after slumping his way out of Toronto in 2011. He finished his first full season in the desert with a career-high .302 average, and his wins above replacement jumped back up to 3.6 after hitting a rock-bottom 0.8 in his last season with the Blue Jays.
In his first full MLB season, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt put it all together, with 20 home runs and 82 RBIs while cutting down, slightly, on his strikeouts, especially in the second half. This season he projects out to 26 home runs and 89 RBIs and has been adjusting better to breaking pitches…They picked up versatile Martin Prado in the trade with the Braves for Justin Upton, and he’s just the type of player Gibson covets, a solid veteran who will play where he’s asked. It’s expected the move the desert air will up his home run total.
Ian Kennedy has quietly won 36 games over his last two seasons – most in the National League – and is a consistent starter, just not very flashy.
COLORADO ROCKIES
Playing in relative anonymity in Denver, Carlos Gonzalez has quietly put up some dazzling numbers, based on 162-game averages – .299, 36 doubles, 28 home runs, 97 RBIs, 24 steals, .874 OPS. All this while still striking out a ton. If he could ever put the ball in play more consistently, he could be a monster.
Troy Tulowitzki continues to be an offensive force despite being injury prone. A troublesome groin strain limited him to just 47 games in 2012 and, unfortunately, the team’s fortunes are still tied to the shortstop.
Dexter Fowler finally played to his skill last year, finishing with a .300 average and career highs in home runs and RBIs. More improvement is expected this summer for the balanced switch-hitter especially in the base stealing department.
First baseman Michael Cuddyer should enjoy a big power season in the rarified air of the Rockies – if he can stay healthy.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Ownership, with gobs of cash at their disposal, brought in some big contracts last summer in a trade with the Red Sox, and then lured top free agent starter Zack Greinke away from the Angels. He’ll slot in nicely behind 2011 Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw to give the Dodgers a solid, lefty-righty, one-two starting punch. It still remains to be seen, though, if Greinke can pitch under the bright lights, his best seasons coming with mid-market teams in Kansas City and Milwaukee.
Matt Kemp remains the King of L.A., his five-tool skills remain the awe of everyone around the game. Hamstring problems cost him 56 games a year ago, but when healthy there’s few better.
The Dodgers are gambling that Carl Crawford can regain the form that saw him become one of the game’s most exciting players with Tampa Bay, only to suffer through 161 injury-plagued games over two seasons with the Red Sox.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Playing in the extremely pitcher-friendly Petco Park has worn most hitters down, but not Chase Headley. He exploded with a career-high 31 home runs last season, including 19 from August 1st on, tied with Tigers’ Triple Crown slugger Miguel Cabrera for most in the Majors. The fences are coming in in San Diego, so don’t expect Headley’s numbers to regress.
Despite a list of injuries that should make him a medical school case study, closer Huston Street is still effective when active. With a career ERA of 3.01 and 1.04 WHIP he still gets the job done, but the injury bug does bite again, the Padres have an excellent option in Luke Gregerson, fresh off a solid performance with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic.
The Padres had hoped that Cameron Maybin would develop into an Andrew McCutchen/Adam Jones type centrefielder, but they are still waiting and their patience may be flagging. Still just 25, he still hasn’t hit double-digit home runs after parts of six seasons, and his .656 OPS last season ranked him 137th among all qualifying MLB hitters.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
There’s a lot to like about the defending World Series champions. It all starts with Buster Posey who returned from that nasty broken leg / torn ankle ligaments injury in 2011 and got even better, claiming the N.L. MVP and Comeback Player of the Year, an extremely rare double. His .336/.408/.549, 24 home runs, 103 RBIs line was the type of numbers that Mike Piazza used to put up. The Giants might be smart to give him more time at first base to keep their superstar healthy. His 8.0 WAR led all MLB catchers.
Every fifth day, Posey gets to put down fingers for Matt Cain, who has turned into the one of the game’s most effective starters. His .263 BABIP over the last four seasons is lowest among all pitchers with at least 100 starts. And he now has a perfect game on his resume.
Then there’s “The Freak”, Tim Lincecum, who suffered through 2012 with a fastball lost almost two miles per hour off his fastball. The Giants have to hope that last season was just an aberration and not the beginning of the end after being one of the game’s most dominant starters over his five MLB season.
STATSMAN’S NON-BINDING PREDICTIONS
(* WILD CARD)
EAST
NATIONALS
BRAVES
PHILLIES
METS
MARLINS
CENTRAL
CARDINALS
REDS*
BREWERS
PIRATES
CUBS
WEST
GIANTS
DODGERS*
D’BACKS
PADRES
ROCKIES
WILD CARD
DODGERS def. REDS
DIVISION SERIES
NATIONALS def. DODGERS
GIANTS def. CARDINALS
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
NATIONALS def. GIANTS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
MATT KEMP, Dodgers
CY YOUNG AWARD
STEPHEN STRASBURG, Nationals
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
ZACK WHEELER, Mets
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
MIKE MATHENY, Cardinals