It’s that time of the year when everyone on your Twitter timeline tries to be an expert on NCAA hoops without haven’t watched many (if any!) games all season. If that’s you, I’m here to help you out a bit if you plan on filling out a bracket or putting down a little sprinkle on March Madness.
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
The favourite: The Gonzaga Bulldogs (+314 to win the tournament) are the No. 1 seed in the West region and are the top overall seed for the second straight year. The Zags don’t have to deal with the pressure of keeping their perfect season alive this time around and still have a pair of standouts from their 2021 team led by leading scorer Drew Timme (17.5 points per game) and Canadian point guard Andrew Nembhard.
Gonzaga is the highest-scoring team in the nation at 87.8 points per game and the fastest team at 73.8 possessions per game. The Bulldogs, though, have a tough road to the Final Four with teams like (8) Boise State, (9) Memphis and (4) Arkansas as potential roadblocks in the earlier rounds. Gonzaga is also staring at a regional final matchup against either Mike Krzyzewski’s (2) Duke or a very physical (3) Texas Tech team.
Pick: It won’t be easy for Gonzaga, but they’ve already beaten Texas Tech in December and lost a tight one to the Blue Devils the day after U.S. Thanksgiving on a neutral court. This feels like a redemption tour for the Zags. They have plenty of firepower, highlighted by super-talented freshman Chet Holmgren. The Bulldogs are also rated No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s 2022 College Basketball Ratings and are the most efficient offence in college basketball per 100 possessions. Take Gonzaga to punch their ticket to the Final Four and win the West region at -167.
Dark horses: UCLA Bruins (+1800 to win the tournament) are seeded fourth in the East region. The Bruins went 25-7 in the Pac-12 regular season and lost 84-76 to Arizona in the conference tournament title game on Saturday. If you’re into tournament experience, UCLA is the team for you! The Bruins are returning their entire starting five from last year’s team that made it all the way to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed.
The Bruins are eighth in KenPom’s rankings ahead of traditional powerhouses like Duke and Villanova and one of just four teams in the Top 15 in both offence and defence. UCLA is also in the same region as the Baylor Bears who feel like the most vulnerable No. 1 seed because of injuries.
The Houston Cougars (+3000 to win the tournament) are the No. 5 seed in the South region. The Cougars were 29-5 this season playing out of the American Athletic Conference and ended up 18th on the committee’s overall seed list. The Cougars are ranked fourth on KenPom ahead of No. 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor and are coming off a Final Four appearance last year. Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards and big man Fabian White Jr. will be heavily relied on for a Houston team that’s going to play tough defence and is going to crash the offensive glass.
Pick: It won’t be easy for UCLA with Baylor and a very talented (2) Kentucky team standing in their way to getting to New Orleans for the Final Four. With Jaime Jaquez Jr. healthy again and Johnny Juzang’s ability to hit clutch shots, I think there is too much value here in the tournament-tested Bruins. Take UCLA at +551 to win the East region.
The 5-vs-12 matchup: This is the part of the bracket, where a lot of the casual fans will automatically gravitate to the underdog. If you’ve bet the No. 12 seed blindly over the past 10 tournaments, you’ve been in the black. The No. 12 seed is 24-15-1 against the spread in these first-round matchups against the No. 5 seed.
Let’s go back even further, shall we?
Since 1985, when the NCAA Tournament field expanded, the No. 12 seed is a rock solid 76-65-3 against the spread vs. No. 5s in the first round and 51-93 straight up.
Here are the 5-12 matchups for the 2022 NCAA Tournament:
East: No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Indiana (Saint Mary's Gaels -3.0)
Midwest: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond (Iowa Hawkeyes -10.5)
South: No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB (Houston Cougars -8.5)
West: No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (Connecticut Huskies -6.5)
Pick: Saint Mary’s has an impressive victory over No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga this season. The Gaels are also ranked 17th on KenPom and have a ton of size inside and do a great job of defending the three-pointer. They also play slow, which could bode well in this matchup with Indiana. I’ll buck the No. 12 seed trend and take the Gaels to cover the -3.0 spread here at -110.
