The NBA draft lottery goes down on Tuesday night. For those franchises coming off a down year or in the midst of a rebuild, lottery night is a most anticipated — and stressful — night for both the team and its fans.
This year, all of the teams who finished at the bottom of the standings (and therefore have the best odds at landing a top pick) are all in dire need of a foundational player or high-potential co-star to join their roster.
With three teams from the West holding the best odds to land a top-three pick, a conference already loaded with stars is poised to get another infusion. But given that three of the four Eastern Conference semifinalists — Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston — all with a chance to get lucky and bolster their rosters even further, tonight’s lottery could hold major implications for the future of both conferences.
Here are some things to keep an eye on during the 2018 NBA draft lottery:
What are the odds to land the first-overall pick?
Let’s start with the basics. Here are the lottery teams, in order from best-to-worst odds at nabbing the first-overall pick:
1. Phoenix Suns (25 per cent chance)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (19.9 per cent)
3. Dallas Mavericks (13.8 per cent)
4. Atlanta Hawks (13.7 per cent)
5. Orlando Magic (8.8 per cent)
6. Chicago Bulls (5.3 per cent)
7. Sacramento Kings (5.3 per cent)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (2.8 per cent)
9. New York Knicks (1.7 per cent)
10. Philadelphia 76ers or Boston Celtics (1.1 per cent)
11. Charlotte Hornets: (0.8 per cent)
12. Los Angeles Clippers (0.7 per cent)
13. Los Angeles Clippers: (0.6 per cent)
14. Denver Nuggets: (0.5 per cent)
Who are the top prospects in the 2018 draft?
2018 is considered a top-heavy draft — not the deepest pool of potential stars, but a ton of talent at the top. What’s interesting is that there’s no real consensus in terms of draft order and the rankings are quite subjective this year.
Some of the biggest names in the draft are Duke’s Marvin Bagley III (the top-ranked player coming out of high school), Michigan State big man Jaren Jackson Jr. (good rim protector who can stretch the floor), Missouri swingman Michael Porter Jr. (prior to last season ranked No. 1 on many draft boards, but missed most of his lone college year with a back injury), Oklahoma star point guard Trae Young, and Texas freshman big man Mo Bamba, who, once drafted, will have the longest wingspan in the NBA, taking the title from current champ Rudy Gobert.
That being said, two names stand out as contenders for the No. 1 pick: Luka Doncic and DeAndre Ayton.
You may recall Doncic from his run in the EuroBasket tournament last summer, when the 18-year-old helped lead Slovenia to a gold medal. In that tournament, he outplayed a number of established NBAers, including Kristaps Porzingis, the Gasol brothers, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Fournier and Jonas Valanciunas.
And he hasn’t slowed down in the year since, playing at an all-star level in Europe for Real Madrid, where he’s continued to both win and put up unmatched numbers for a player his age. At six-foot-eight, Doncic is a do-it-all wing presence who would make a nice fit on any lottery team.
Doncic is the most-hyped international draft prospect since Ricky Rubio back in 2009, and the highest-calibre since Yao Ming 15 years ago.
Ayton is a completely different player. He’s a seven-foot, 260-pound physical specimen with a 44-inch vertical and a power game that has been tailored to the modern NBA. Ayton can swat shots into the stands and throw down in the paint, but has also shown a nice touch
Doncic possesses more intangibles and intrigue, but Ayton could be a once-in-a-decade kind of centre prospect that can transform a franchise if he can maximize his sky-high potential.
Cleveland’s pick and its LeBron James implications
The Cavaliers hold possession of the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick, which was acquired from Boston in the Kyrie Irving-Isaiah Thomas trade last summer.
It’s currently slotted at eighth, with a 2.8 per cent chance of winding up at No. 1, and a 10 per cent chance of finishing in the top three.
Either scenario could have a significant impact on LeBron James’ future with the franchise that drafted him.
Like Cleveland’s first-overall pick in 2014, which was used to select Andrew Wiggins, that pick would give the Cavs a valuable trade asset that can be moved to bring in an established player who can contribute right away and take some of the load of James’ shoulders, like Kevin Love was acquired from Minnesota to do four years ago.
Of course, that only makes sense if James stays put. A free agent this summer, if he elects to sign elsewhere, a top pick in this year’s draft could give Cleveland a potential building block for a LeBron-less future.
The East’s best could get (way) better
It’s not just Cleveland who stands to improve among current Eastern Conference playoff teams.
The Celtics and 76ers are two really good teams and in a position to leverage the draft to get even better over the next year or two. And their NBA draft future is closely interlinked.
Both the 76ers and Celtics will be watching what happens with the pick currently slotted at No. 10 overall. Originally belonging to the Los Angeles Lakers, where that pick winds up could have major implications for both franchises.
Stay with me here, because this can get convoluted in a hurry.
The 76ers obtained the Lakers’ 2018 pick as part of a three-team trade in 2015 in which Philly traded away Michael Carter-Williams.
But if the pick lands anywhere between two and five, it gets transferred to the Celtics. This was a part of last year’s trade between the two teams that saw Boston trade down from first overall to third, where it drafted Jayson Tatum.
It’s hard to think about the Celtics adding another top-five draft pick to what will be an already loaded roster next season (although breakout point guard Terry Rozier is a free agent this summer).
Even if Philadelphia keeps the pick (again: that is the scenario if it winds up at No. 1, or the sixth pick and below), then the Celtics will get to take ownership of the Sacramento Kings’ 2019 first-rounder, very likely to be high atop the lottery. It’s confusing, but the point is: the Celtics are stacked and only getting more talented. Philly, meanwhile, could have a top-10 pick this year, and currently will have four (!!!) projected lottery picks next year as well.
In all likelihood, the pick will stay at No. 10, and Philadelphia will draft in that spot. In a stacked lottery class, that means Philly is poised to add yet another high-potential prospect to its core of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Or the Sixers, who have a ton of cap space this summer, can utilize the pick as part of a trade package to bring in a third big-name star.
And wouldn’t you know it, reports surfaced on Monday that the team has plans to actively pursue San Antonio Spurs all-star Kawhi Leonard in the off-season.
The East is about to get a whole lot better — and soon.
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