For some players, you can spot a breakout season a mile away. For example, Tracy McGrady, the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2001, was an ultra-talented star-in-the-making who just needed the opportunity to log major minutes and be a team’s go-to scorer, which he was from day one once he joined the Orlando Magic.
Others, like reigning 2019 MIP Pascal Siakam, are a little tougher to see coming. Sure, we knew Siakam had tons of potential, and anybody monitoring his off-season work this time last year knew that he was opening eyes scrimmaging among the NBA’s elite. But to transform, in just his third season, to a reliable secondary scorer, unstoppable matchup nightmare, and arguably the second-best player on a championship team? Not sure if we saw that degree of improvement coming.
So, who will surprise us next season? Using some criteria from Siakam’s second season — the one before the breakout — when he averaged 7.3 points in 20.7 minutes per game, here are some candidates that stand out. Again, the following are all players who averaged fewer than 21 minutes and eight points per game last season, and could see a major rise in those numbers — and their place in the NBA’s hierarchy.
(Note: You may notice that putting those qualifiers really limits the list, and removes most of the popular ‘breakout’ candidates for next season, which only highlights just how impressive Siakam’s leap was last year).
Anfernee Simons, G, Portland Trail Blazers
2018-19 stats: 20 GP, 7.1 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 38.5 3PT%
Simons was the 24th pick of the 2018 draft after skipping college and biding his time training at Florida’s IMG Academy. So he came into the league a virtual unknown and that perception hardly changed last season as he was glued to Portland’s bench.
But that doesn’t mean Simons doesn’t have serious potential that could be realized as soon as this season. It’s becoming harder and harder for the Trail Blazers to keep the 20 year-old a secret, and his Summer League performance put the rest of the NBA on notice — including a 35-point performance and All-Tournament honours.
He’s a three-point assassin who also smoothly maneuvers his way to the rim, and is poised to cut defences up as his playing time should see a notable spike in his sophomore season.
In Portland they’re certainly high on Simons heading into the season. “He is not currently the best basketball player I drafted,” GM Neil Olshey told SB Nation, “…But just in terms of his natural gifts at his age, and his God-given talent, it rivals anybody else that I’ve drafted in my career.” That’s a list that includes current Blazers superstar Damian Lillard.
With the ability to play either guard position, look for Simons to work his way into an explosive weapon off Portland’s bench.
Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks
2018-19 stats: 66 GP, 20.6 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 2.4 bpg
The Knicks got roughly 1,500 power forwards this summer, but there should still be an opportunity for their 21-year-old centre, Robinson, to carve out minutes. Which is a good thing for Robinson because when he’s on the floor, he produces. Like Simons, Robinson skipped college and therefore entered the league as the 36th pick and a virtual unknown. He quickly proved he had elite athleticism for his position and showed flashes of a potentially dominant two-way post-player.
As a rookie last season the seven-foot-one giant averaged two-and-a-half blocks per game in just 20 minutes of action. His per-36 minute block average of 4.3 per game was best of all NBA players — one full block higher than second-place Myles Turner. It’s hard to ignore that kind of production.
Alley-oop Block Zion Fast break dunk
Mitchell Robinson takes no plays off pic.twitter.com/NOI3p9unl2
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 6, 2019
Of all players in the NBA last season who played fewer than 21 minutes, Robinson had the highest win-share, and he figures to be an important part of the Knicks long-term future — but don’t be surprised if he makes a name for himself sooner than that.
Zach Collins, C, Portland Trail Blazers
2018-19 stats: 77 GP, 17.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 0.9 bpg
Those betting on a breakout for Collins should look no further than his performance against Denver in the second round of the 2019 post-season, when he was given more playing time in a matchup with All-NBA centre Nikola Jokic and responded by swatting over two blocks per game.
Likely best suited as a high-end role player as opposed to a go-to guy like Siakam, a 14-point, five-block performance in Game 6 put Collins on the radar. The health status of Jusuf Nurkic and the addition of Hassan Whiteside could be road blocks, or it could force Collins to play at the four and continue to develop his three-point shot as the Trail Blazers look for a frontcourt difference-maker to compliment their talented backcourt.
Patrick McCaw, G, Toronto Raptors
2018-19 stats: 26 GP, 13.2 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 0.8 spg
Probable? No, but so much of success in the NBA is finding opportunity.
Of course, capitalizing on it is the hard part, but on a Toronto Raptors team light on depth McCaw could have a chance to finally log meaningful minutes, with undrafted rookie Terrence Davis and EuroLeague standout Matt Thomas as his only real competition off the bench at shooting guard (assuming Norman Powell is named a starter out of training camp).
McCaw’s defensive acumen will earn him playing time under Nick Nurse and Co., and it’s what else the fourth-year guard can show that will determine how long he stays on the floor.
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