TORONTO – The old saying in the NBA is that by Year 3 of a player’s career you know what they are and what they’re not. They may shift the needle here or there, incrementally improve in one area or regress in an another, but after 200 or so NBA games, the trajectory of their career has become clear.
For the Minnesota Timberwolves and fans of Canadian basketball, the hope is Andrew Wiggins’ story will continue to evolve because four years in there was hope that the picture would be more vibrant than it has been so far.
The hometown kid had high hopes for his annual visit to the Air Canada Centre: “It’s great to be back here where I was born and raised,” Wiggins said beforehand. “It’s a chance to for family and friends to see me play, it’s not often they do.”
It wasn’t much of a show. Wiggins didn’t have a significant presence in the Toronto Raptors’ hard-fought 109-104 win until he hit a triple with 1:01 left to pull the Timberwolves to within two.
That was his highlight.
Wiggins missed a nearly identical three with 20 seconds and a desperation pull-up three after that; left while DeMar DeRozan finished the visitors with a jumper in the lane and a pair of free throws as the Raptors used a balanced attack and some stingy fourth-quarter defence to earn the split in their series with Minnesota and improve to 34-15 and 19-4 at the ACC while remaining a game behind Boston for first place in the East.
There was concern going in Wiggins would have been Minnesota’s difference maker — “When he plays against us, he’s almost like a different player” – said Raptors head coach Dwane Casey.
On this night Wiggins was the same as he is on too many other nights on the schedule — not impactful. Wiggins finished with 15 points on 7-of-22 shooting. He missed a dunk, he had three of Minnesota’s nine turnovers and only two of their 21 assists; he had seven defensive rebounds, but no blocks or steals and didn’t attempt a free throw.
Bad game, was his analysis. “I had some good looks,” he said. “I was missing dunks. I just got to keep shooting. If I’m in a shooting slump I keep shooting until I’m out of it.”
Wiggins came to Toronto averaging 25 points a game against his hometown team – that’s second to the 29 points a game he averages against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the team that traded him after drafting him No.1 overall in 2014 to make way for the return of LeBron James.
His ability to raise his game at will – though so rarely – is an indictment more than anything else. Against the 28 teams that Wiggins doesn’t have something personal on the line he averages just 19 points a game and he’s averaging 18.2 this season, the lowest since his rookie year.
It’s not a good look.
At times Wiggins seems hemmed in by his talent – the game has come so easily for him and he’s been granted so much leeway because of his seemingly unlimited potential – that there are questions whether he’s up for the daily grind that even the most gifted need to submit to be their best.
Not that there hasn’t been a lot to like about the first three-plus years in the Vaughan, Ont. native’s career.
He’s been durable – he’s missed just one game in his career and his 10,779 minutes played prior to his annual visit to Toronto Tuesday night leads the NBA since 2014-15. Additionally, he became the eighth youngest player in league history to reach 5,000 points for his career earlier this season – Tracy McGrady was the seventh and Shaquille O’Neal was eighth.
With that said, there have been plenty of areas of concern. At first glance last season marked a breakthrough for Wiggins as he averaged a career-high 23 points per game – the third straight year his scoring average increased. He showed signs of becoming a reliable three-point threat and productive in pick-and-roll situations.
But the long-limbed leaper with other-worldly lateral quickness has often seemed disinterested in anything to do with the game when he didn’t have the ball in his hands – it seems impossible that with his tools he has never averaged even one blocked shot per game or more than 4.1 rebounds. He’s averaged as many turnovers – 2.1 – for his career as assists.
And he’s proven to be an almost impossibly poor defensive player by several measures. When Fivethirtyeight.com declared Wiggins the NBA’s worst defender this past summer they noted that when Wiggins contested a shot opponents had an effective field goal percentage of 56.1 – league-wide unguarded players have an eFG of 56.4.
Being guarded by Wiggins is like not being guarded at all.
[snippet id=3636937]
However, he’s hard to give up on. The Timberwolves certainly haven’t, and they shouldn’t. He’s still just 22. Whether he delivers value for the five-year $150-million contract extension he signed this summer is another question.
“I think he’s more of a complete player,” said Minnesota head coach Tom Thibodeau. “He’s starting to see things and making plays. He’s obviously a gifted scorer but he’s making other people better. His defence is getting better and better. He’s making hustle plays and his impact on winning has been far greater this year than it was last year. … I think we all tend to forget that there are steps that players go through.”
How many steps Wiggins goes through, how far they lead and how long he takes to get there will be interesting to follow.
It’s worth noting that one of the players Wiggins gets compared to is DeRozan – another rangy athlete who was little more than a volume shooter early in his career and an inefficient one at that.
He’s much more than that now, as Wiggins can attest.
“DeRozan’s a great player, a great scorer. He can create for his teammates,” said Wiggins. “He’s a tough cover.”
It wasn’t until Year 5 that DeRozan began expanding his game. After four years he seemed destined to plateau at just ‘OK.’ The Raptors cornerstone is heading to his fourth all-star game in five seasons later this month, his skill set expanding year-by-year. Like Wiggins, DeRozan struggled shooting Tuesday night, finishing 6-of-18. But he shot 11 free throws, making 10 and he had eight assists against one turnover. He provided value without making shots.
It’s a model Wiggins should study closely. His potential remains vast. Falling short of it would be a shame.
[relatedlinks]
