The LeBron James sweepstakes have begun.
James would be welcomed on any of the 30 NBA teams in the league so the decision is truly his own. Even rookie Trae Young is trying to recruit him.
Elsewhere, Sacramento Kings fans have billboards up. A personal injury lawyer also spent upwards of a million dollars for billboards for James and California kid Paul George.
Even a theoretical astrophysicist has weighed in on where James should play next year.
The previous times he changed teams, the news broke on July 9 and July 11.
This time, we’ll have an indication on his plans by 12:01 a.m. on June 29th. That’s the deadline for James to decide to opt out of the final year of his contract.
If he opts in, that will essential limit the sweepstakes to the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, or the Cleveland Cavaliers.
If LeBron is a true free agent, nobody else will have the cap space to sign him especially if they have to go over the tax to do it. If he opts in, he can ask for a trade immediately (see Chris Paul last year) and then get his money and preferred destination.
The Lakers and 76ers are the only teams with the cap space to sign him outright, and the Cavaliers have his Bird rights. Nobody else has enough cap space to give LeBron a max deal worth 35 per cent of the cap.
That is why I’m giving the Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and yes, your Toronto Raptors a zero per cent shot at landing LeBron. Those teams can’t even realistically do a sign-and-trade because once you complete one, NBA rules state that you can’t have a cap number more than $6 million above the luxury tax.
Assuming LeBron’s main criteria are money and pathway to a championship, here is a breakdown of his likely landing spots.
4. Houston – 1 per cent
Pro: Becoming a Houston Rocket would be one step closer to the banana boat squad we’ve all been dying for since the infamous 2016 photo was taken of the NBA super friends.
James has already played with Dwyane Wade twice but the best sidekick from that group at this stage is Chris Paul.
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The Rockets are the closest team to pushing the Golden State Warriors, too. They already took them to seven games in the Western Conference finals and were up in the series before Paul got hurt. The addition of James could push them over the top the way Kevin Durant did with the Warriors. If LeBron is frustrated with losing three of the last four NBA Finals against Golden State, Houston is a ready-made option to change that.
Con – Both ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and the Akron Beacon Journal’s Marla Ridenour have reported James and his family are not keen on living in Houston. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith first reported that Paul is saying that James is going to LA.
Even if he were to arrive, the Rockets are up against the cap.
The Rockets have to sign Paul to a max deal to entice LeBron, which means they likely won’t be in the bidding to re-sign Clint Capela, who is in line for a big raise. Ryan Anderson is owed just shy of $42 million over the next two years as well. Nobody is taking that contract off the Rockets hands.
General manager Daryl Morey would have to ship out Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Nene to make the money work. Couple that with the fact that they wouldn’t be able to re-sign Capela or Trevor Ariza, and they lose all of their depth. Would the reigning MVP James Harden, plus LeBron and Paul be enough to rival the Warriors’ all-stars? The Oklahoma City Thunder experiment with three stars and zero bench is proof that all super teams aren’t created equal.
3. Philadelphia – 9 per cent
Pro – The billboards in South Philadelphia have been courting him and a “witness” Nike ad of him running through the streets like Rocky would garner plenty of likes and impressions.
Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric is an enticing young core. When LeBron left Cleveland, it was for more high-end talent to lesson his workload. When he left Miami, it was for a younger core that would energize him. Philadelphia is the one place that presents both in abundance.
That vacant GM position could be filled with a James-friendly candidate. The most qualified candidate on the market is David Griffin. Griffin was publicly supported by LeBron when Dan Gilbert didn’t renew the GM’s contract, and was close to getting a deal done for Paul George in Cleveland.
A return for LeBron’s favourite general manager with orders not just to appease James but to land the elusive George as his running mate would immediately make the Sixers a title contender.
Con – James’ candid comments during the Finals about the type of players he wants to surround himself with would seem to diminish the odds of him joining a core who has little playoff experience and a long injury history.
Furthermore, who is leading the pitch to land James? Bryan Colangelo was let go because of burner-gate and he has yet to be replaced.
2. Cleveland – 40 per cent
Pro – If James leaves again, Gilbert is left with Kevin Love and No. 8 draft pick Collin Sexton. More importantly, Gilbert is on the hook for money owed to Love, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood and Larry Nance Jr., so James could leave them even worse off then he did before.
No, it’s not LeBron’s problem but it’s something he’s certainly aware of and how it will be received nationally. Can he really break their hearts twice?
James returned home in 2014 with the goal of delivering Cleveland’s first major professional championship since 1964. In 2016, he did it. He can never win another ring again and be as good as gold in Northeast Ohio. Most of the residue of “the decision” is gone as well. If he quietly decides to re-sign, LeBron will have completely changed the narrative on the one supposed blemish on his resume.
With no alternative that much better than staying home, LeBron can always opt in for a year and dance with the devil that he knows and try his luck on the free agent market again next year.
Con – Did you watch the 2018 NBA Finals? James has never looked more frustrated. The entire season was one long deep sigh for the game’s best player. If Smith’s timeout didn’t seal his fate, being swept by the Warriors and the fractured relationship with Gilbert might have. Even with LeBron, the Cavs are not a lock to be better than Philadelphia or Boston next season.
1. Los Angeles Lakers – 50 per cent chance
Pro – Hollywood has been the rumoured landing spot for James for over a year. LeBron himself has two houses in Brentwood, California. The Springhill and the Uninterrupted media ventures have offices in Los Angeles. The growing media mogul could learn from Magic Johnson on how to grow his net worth.
Gary Payton ignited the rumours that LeBron has already enrolled his eldest son in school in Los Angeles. More recently, there are rumours Chris Paul is already telling people that LeBron is going to L.A..
It’s unlikely and would require help from other teams, but the Lakers could get all three all-star forwards on the market, combining James with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.
The Lakers can make cap space for multiple stars but it is going to take some work. It is going to cost something in the neighbourhood of two first-round picks as a sweetener to get Luol Deng’s two years and $37 million off the books via trade. Waiving Deng and stretching his nearly $37 million owed is another option. They will also need to get rid of non-guaranteed contracts which might not be good news for Canadian Tyler Ennis, who is on $1.7 million.
The Lakers will have $46 million dollars after they renounce Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which is the only reason they were signed in the first place. They’ll do the same with Isaiah Thomas because we know he and James didn’t work well together in Cleveland.
Oh, and add Thomas to the list of players who has spoken out publicly saying James is heading to L.A.
James could also be convinced to go solo for a year and wait for the Lakers to sign a running mate a year from now. L.A. will have $75 million dollars in cap space in 2019 when Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard are all unrestricted free agents.
Con – ESPN is reporting that there is pressure on the Lakers to get Kawhi Leonard on board before LeBron has to opt out on Friday.
If the San Antonio Spurs aren’t motivated to trade their All-Star swingman to a rival to help them land another All-Star forward, the Lakers are in trouble. And if the deal does get done, it will come at a huge cost despite the fact Leonard only played in seven games last year and finished the year on injured reserve due to a reccurring thigh injury.
The fact that the Celtics, Cavaliers, 76ers and Clippers are all also in the running for Kawhi will drive up the price. Unlike some of the other suitors, the Lakers don’t have an abundance of future draft picks to sweeten the deal. Bringing in James and co. could cost L.A. their last two No. 2 picks in Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram and their 2014 first-rounder in Julius Randle. Even if the Lakers make the Spurs the best offer to get Leonard, will there be enough talent left on an already bad roster to convince James he can beat the Rockets and Warriors in the West?
There is also the Kobe legacy. Bryant has not one, but two banners hanging at the Staples Center. Already constantly compared to Michael Jordan, does James want to draw direct comparisons to Bryant in the only city Bryant ever played? Kobe has already made passive aggressive comments putting himself in the G.O.A.T. debate.
That conversation would increase to an even more annoying level if they played for the same franchise. The first missed game-winner by James would kick start a referendum on which player is actually the best.
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