At long last, the first NBA Finals north of the border is upon us.
The Toronto Raptors are set to begin their most challenging test yet, dethroning the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors. If that daunting pursuit is to actually come to fruition, though, Toronto must rely on a complete performance from its entire rotation, not just star talent.
On the flip-side, Golden State’s three-peat hinges upon the success of its lethal backcourt, Draymond Green wreaking havoc on both ends and the health of Kevin Durant. However, that’s not to say the Warriors’ complimentary talent won’t have to step up.
With that in mind, let’s look at the most likely X-factors on both teams that could help swing the outcome of these Finals.
[relatedlinks]
Toronto Raptors
Danny Green
The player who once held the record for most made threes in an NBA Finals — Green hit 27 of them in 2013 against the Heat, a record that has since been broken by Stephen Curry in 2016 — looks like a shell of himself in recent weeks.
Green has only gotten colder from long-range since Game 2 of the East semifinal. A career 39.9 per cent three-point shooter during the post-season, the long-time Spurs guard is hitting just 31.4 per cent of his attempts beyond the arc, including just one of his last 15. Luckily for Toronto, Green has still been able to deliver throughout the team’s run with lockdown positional defending, something that should come in handy against either Curry or Klay Thompson.
A return to form on the offensive end from Green is essential if the Raptors hope to complete a Finals upset. After all, he’s one of the few players on Toronto’s roster (Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Patrick McCaw are the others) that have previous Finals experience, meaning the Raptors will likely look Green’s way as the moments get bigger.
Off the court, Green’s veteran leadership is an obvious asset. On the court questions still remain, with the most notable one being: Will Green be able to come through in the moment like he has in seasons past?
Fred VanVleet
VanVleet’s shooting touch in the final three games of the Eastern Conference Finals played a crucial role in helping the Raptors advance. The former Wichita State guard’s struggles were painful to watch — VanVleet sunk only 19.5 per cent of his playoff three-pointers heading into Game 4 against Milwaukee — but VanVleet flipped the switch following the birth of his son, hitting a preposterously efficient 14-of-17 long-distance attempts to close out the series.
VanVleet’s percentages will return closer to the mean, although still being able to rely on his consistent shooting stroke is essential, especially when trying to match the offensive prowess of the Dubs. Ideally, VanVleet’s shooting and strong man-to-man defence will prevent him from being a liability next to Lowry if Nick Nurse chooses to deploy two-point guard lineups.
Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green
An in-shape and motivated Green has played out of his mind through 16 playoff games, routinely dissecting opposing defences by pushing the pace as a distributor in transition and out of the short roll. He’s averaging team-highs in assists, rebounds and blocks per game, while also ranking second on the team with 1.4 steals per game this post-season.
Aside from his impressive playmaking, Green’s made up for his glaring weakness — long-range shooting — by cleaning up inside the paint when called upon in the Warriors’ perimeter-oriented attack. 43.2 per cent of his field goal attempts have come from within zero-to-three feet of the basket this post-season, and the former Michigan State Spartan has converted 76.7 of those looks. Keep in mind, though, the Raptors’ defence will be the most disciplined, skilled and versatile unit Green and Co. face this post-season, so that tremendous efficiency could drop off.
Speaking of defence, Green figures to be one of the players assigned to containing Leonard throughout the series. Iguodala may start as Leonard’s primary defender to allow for Green to roam and intercept passing lanes as a free safety in the paint, but when the former is off the floor, limiting Leonard will be Green’s primary responsibility.
If the former Defensive Player of the Year continues thriving on both ends in this series the way he has through 15 playoff outings, the Raptors are in real trouble.
Andre Iguodala
Along with Green, the ever-so-versatile Iguodala will be tasked with trying to slow down an opposing superstar in Leonard. Luckily for the Warriors, they know he’s up to the task.
The three-time champion has excelled as a shutdown specialist in playoff runs past, most notably in the 2015 Finals when trying to slow down a Herculean effort by LeBron James. Despite averaging terrific numbers for the series (and single-handedly carrying an injury-riddled Cavaliers team), James was limited to just 33 per cent shooting when covered by Iguodala in the series, which ultimately helped the Warriors forward earn Finals MVP honours in his debut on basketball’s biggest stage.
Four years have passed since Iguodala’s brilliant Finals display, and since then we’ve seen the injuries pile on, with a lower-leg injury suffered in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals serving as the most recent example. Will the 35-year-old prove he has more defensive tricks up of his sleeve? Can he stay healthy throughout the series? Rumours have circulated regarding the 15-year veteran’s potential retirement, meaning this series could wind up being Iguodala’s last chance to showcase the elite skillset that helped him become one of the game’s brightest defenders.
