When the New York Knicks announced the hiring of Phil Jackson as team president last season, it didn’t take a genius to figure out that a change or two might be coming for the club.
It was mid-March and New York was 27-40 and 10.5 games back of the Toronto Raptors in the Atlantic. Sure, they were also in the middle of their longest winning streak of the season (one that would end at eight games), but they’d been a flaming mess for long stretches—battling Mike Woodson’s switch-heavy defensive scheme and looking extremely limited on the other side of the ball. Whatever the Zen Master could bring to the table, the Knicks probably needed. And even back in March, the smart money guessed that what Jackson was most likely to bring to the table was a whole lot of Triangle.
From the subsequent hiring of Derek Fisher—another master of the Triangle Offence—to the acquisitions of Jose Calderon and Jason Smith, and even the recent four-player deal with Sacramento that introduced Travis Outlaw and former-Raptor Quincy Acy into the fold, the rest of the off-season has done little to alter that initial guess.
The Knicks will play the Triangle in 2014-15, and that raises a crucial question: Where will Carmelo Anthony, freshly inked to a five-year extension, fit into the scheme?
Over the past two seasons, the Knicks have embraced small-ball lineups with Anthony sliding up to the four.
Melo played the hybrid power forward role for 72 percent and 62 percent of his total minutes in 2013 and 2014, respectively (per Basketball-Reference)—and he excelled there.
Since 1998, the only other players to average at least 27.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game—as Melo did in 2013-14—are Shaquille O’Neal (four times, most recently in 2002-03) and Chris Webber (in 2000-01). And the success wasn’t limited to Anthony’s stat line.
According to NBA.com, New York was able to assemble eight different groups in 2013-14 (min. 10 games played together) with Melo at power forward that outscored opponents by at least 7.8 points per 100 possessions—a margin that would’ve ranked second in the league in 2013-14 behind San Antonio’s 8.1 if measured across a full season. In addition, each of the Knicks’ most efficient five-man units (in terms of point differential) featured their franchise star in the frontcourt.
In short, the Knicks were a disaster last season (despite missing the playoffs by just one game), but there were glimmers of hope in the form of small-ball lineups with Anthony at the four, which delivered one of the team’s few consistent advantages.
So, Melo will primarily play power forward in Jackson and Fisher’s Triangle?
Deploying him as the four-man on the weakside and encouraging cuts to the “pinch-post” area—near the elbow—would permit him to operate near enough to the basket to create extra spacing and flexibility, increasing shot quality.
That said, the answer is still “probably not.”
Like fellow superstar LeBron James, Anthony has been showing up on Instagram this off-season looking slimmer than we’ve seen him in years.
According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, the weight shedding is part of a Knicks’ push to slide Melo back to his original role on the wing, an adjustment the front office views as necessary in establishing the Triangle.
So, despite the fact that Carmelo has put up the best numbers of his career over the past two seasons while playing the bulk of his minutes at power forward, it looks as though he’ll be back at the three next season—and that transition could be a complicated and ugly one.
Playing at small forward, Anthony will have to share the court with two of Amar’e Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, Samuel Dalembert, Cole Aldrich and Jason Smith. This will force him to rely on his plodding, below-the-basket companions to effectively set picks, swing the ball and stay out of his way, something that hasn’t gone well for New York in the past. Lineups that saw Anthony, Stoudemire, and Bargnani share the floor were nothing short of disastrous in 2013-14, resulting in opponents outgunning the Knicks by an average of 13.8 points per 100 possessions.
The shift back out to the perimeter will also force Anthony to make more entry passes—not exactly the strongest aspect of his game—and allot him fewer touches in the post. The Knicks scored on 51 percent of possessions when Melo posted up last season, churning out a healthy 1.02 points per possession according to Synergy Sports data. That’s quite the weapon to limit in the name of the Triangle.
The Knicks were able to avoid a nightmare by retaining Anthony amid July’s free-agent bonanza. But strictly adhering to the system that brought both Jackson and Fisher to such great heights could ultimately cap the productivity of one of the league’s most electric and unstoppable offensive forces. How the organization juggles its fondness for the fabled offence and the efficiency of its marquee star will be the standard by which it is measured—especially if Melo proves to be a round peg in a triangular hole.
For more insight and analysis on the NBA, follow Angus on Twitter @arkcrawford.