Canada’s dreams of this underdog group leading them to a FIBA Basketball World Cup medal – the ultimate nose rub to their NBA no-shows – or even earning a spot in the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo got off to a rough start Sunday morning when it dropped a 108-92 decision to a very good Australian team in Dongguan, China.
In order to advance out of the so-called “group of death,” Canada will almost certainly need to beat Lithuania – ranked 6th in the world — on Tuesday morning and take care of business against Senegal on Thursday.
Australia was always going to be a tough out and showed why as Canada couldn’t find an answer for them defensively, allowing the Aussies to shoot 58 per cent from the floor including 70 per cent from inside the arc and 41 per cent from deep. Australia also made 19 free throws to 15 for Canada.
Matthew Dellavedova led Australia with 24 points and was 6-of-10 from three, to go with five rebounds and five assists, while Joe Ingles had 13 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and three steals.
Khem Birch had 18 for Canada and Cory Joseph contributed 16 while Kevin Pangos had 14 points and eight assists as Canada shot 48 per cent from the floor but only 9-of-27 from deep in what was a highly entertaining game. Canada fell behind 52-40 at half, stormed back to lead 77-76 after three quarters but ran out of gas in the fourth.
Here are some takeaways:
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1. Canada has no margin for error.
That is likely the single biggest fallout from their mass NBA defection. This is a capable group but it has to play something close to perfect basketball to push a team the level of the Australians, who counted five NBA players to Canada’s two and who have the benefit of several years playing experience.
Ingles isn’t Michael Jordan, but the Utah Jazz forward is six-foot-eight, weighs 230 pounds, can comfortably run the pick-and-roll from any angle and shot 44 per cent from three two seasons ago. He was the most talented player on the floor. At various moments in Australia’s first half when they build up a 52-40 lead, Ingles was either scoring or snaking his way into the paint to find easy buckets for his teammates as he put up 10 points to lead all scorers and three assists to go along with a pair of steals in the opening half.
Canada didn’t play badly in the early going, but Ingles looked like he was playing too comfortably. It was more of the same in the fourth as Australia began to pull away, but it was Ingles as playmaker that was the problem as he counted five assists in the pivotal period. There aren’t many players at his size that can handle the ball and create at his level and Canada didn’t have the personnel to speed Ingles up.
2. Team discipline is essential.
If there was a turning point in the early going it was Joseph picking up his third foul midway through the second quarter after getting tangled in transition. It was a strange call, but almost par for the course in FIBA. Joseph has too much experience to not be able to make the adjustments but in this this case had to sit with 4:15 left to play in the half.
Joseph’s absence wasn’t the reason Australia was able to push their nine-point lead to 17 with 41 seconds left before half, but it didn’t help. Joseph was the one Canadian who was able to regularly create his own offence – 12 of his 16 points came at the rim, the other four at the free-throw line – and his absence also meant head coach Nick Nurse had to go to 19-year-old Andrew Nembhard longer than he probably planned.
The promising University of Florida sophomore showed his inexperience when he picked up a clear-path foul — which is two free throws and the ball in FIBA — and Ingles made it a four-point play. An Ingles steal of a Nembhard pass turned into another basket to that pushed the Australian lead to 15.
International basketball is almost an elimination game every time out and small things can create huge swings in momentum. Joseph picking up his third foul for no good reason was an example.
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3. Canada is good.
Even with 15 NBA players either nursing injuries or simply choosing not to participate, Canada is good. Even with five U Sports players on the roster (Phil Scrubb, Thomas Scrubb, Kaza Kajami-Keane – all from Carleton — and Owen Klassen from Acadia and Connor Morgan from UBC), Canada is good.
They showed it when they very nearly stole the game with a 37-24 third quarter against one of the world’s best teams. That will have to be the rallying point for Nurse as they get ready to play Lithuania, which they have to win if they have any chance of advancing to the round-of-16. That they are stuck in a pool with Australia and Lithuania – both legitimate medal contenders – is deeply unfortunate because there is no doubt that even with the NBA no-shows, there are plenty of solid pros that can compete at this level against an elite team.
But man, it would be nice to have some help.
4. There are plenty of examples of NBA players using the expanded minutes or roles they get internationally to come back to their regular jobs with a renewed boost of confidence and Birch might be the latest.
The Montreal native has proven to be effective in limited NBA minutes with the Orlando Magic over two seasons – the rangy shot-blocker’s defensive metrics have been eye-catching at times — but he’s struggled to get regular minutes in a deep Orlando frontcourt.
The Magic signed him to a two-year deal worth $6 million anyway, indicating they believe he has more to give, too. Against Australia – who have a pretty solid frontcourt in Aron Baynes and Andrew Bogut – Birch showed he’s got plenty of upside.
His shot-blocking instincts are apparent but he’s also demonstrated a really nice feel for finding gaps in the paint to get in position and catch some slick Pangos passes. His athleticism finishing and on the offensive glass also stands out and with his ability to make free throws.
He may have been Canada’s best player as he put up 18 points on 11 shots while chipping in five rebounds and a pair of blocks. He looks like he can handle a bigger role than he’s had in two NBA seasons and playing for Canada is his chance to prove it.
5. Point differential is the second tiebreaker (after head-to-head record) in FIBA so it really is vital to play out every game to the very end; there is no such thing as garbage time.
When Australia’s hot fourth quarter pushed their lead to 21, Nurse subbed in little-used sharpshooter Brady Heslip with 1:06 to play. Heslip had already hit a three on his only shot of the first half and then knocked down two more on two more touches on Canada’s last two possessions to cut Australia’s margin of victory to 16. It could mean nothing, but if Lithuania loses to the Aussies by 17, for example, it could mean everything.
