DeRozan’s hot start shouldn’t be possible in modern NBA

Toronto Raptors star DeMar DeRozan comments after a tough loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

With a little less than four minutes left in the second quarter of Tuesday’s game between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers, DeMar DeRozan caught a high cross-court pass from Norman Powell just in front of the Raptors’ bench and rose up over Kevin Love to hit what looked like it just might be a three.

For almost any other NBA scoring leader of the past two decades, the play would’ve been unremarkable. For DeRozan it stuck out like a sore thumb.

The shot was called a long two on the floor. When that verdict was confirmed by replay—the old Secaucus Special—DeRozan could be seen joking with his teammates. “God doesn’t want me to make a three,” seemed to be the gist.

DeRozan’s hot start this season has been covered. He was the first player since Michael Jordan in 1986 to score 30 or more in his team’s first five games. He’s now managed the feat in eight of 10. He’s found the cheat codes. He’s basketball’s Keanu Reeves. He’s the NBA’s scoring leader at a fat 33.2 points per game. He’s really good.

But he’s also a freak.

DeRozan is getting all those buckets while attempting just 1.9 threes a game (an average that jumped from 1.6 after he threw up five against the Cavs).

Notching his historic scoring totals almost entirely inside the arc isn’t supposed to be possible in today’s NBA. Just how rare is it?

Here are 10 stats to add some context:

-Four players are currently averaging at least 30 points per game: DeMar DeRozan, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and James Harden. Including those four, only 19 players have averaged 30 in the three-point era (since 1979-80). And of those 19, only 10 have averaged at least 30 points while attempting less than two threes a game. DeRozan and Davis are the first players to accomplish that feat since Michael Jordan did it in 1991-92.

-Only three active players have averaged at least 25 points while attempting fewer threes per game than DeRozan’s 1.9—Anthony Davis (30.5 PTS/G with 1.7 3PA/G in 2016-17), Dirk Nowitzki (25 with 1.5 in 2009-10) and Dwyane Wade (27.2 with 1 in 2005-06 and 27.4 with 1.5 in 2006-07).

-Of the past 20 scoring leaders, only two have averaged fewer than 3.5 three-point attempts per game—Shaq in 1999-00 and MJ in 1997-98. Sixteen have averaged at least four looks from behind the arc and six have averaged six or more. Again, DeRozan is averaging 1.9.

Season Scoring Leader PTS/G 3PA/G
2015-16 Steph Curry 30.1 11.2
2014-15 Russell Westbrook 28.1 4.3
2013-14 Kevin Durant 32 6.1
2012-13 Carmelo Anthony 28.7 6.2
2011-12 Kevin Durant 28 5.2
2010-11 Kevin Durant 27.7 5.3
2009-10 Kevin Durant 30.1 4.3
2008-09 Dwyane Wade 30.2 3.5
2007-08 LeBron James 30 4.8
2006-07 Kobe Bryant 31.6 5.2
2005-06 Kobe Bryant 35.4 6.5
2004-05 Allen Iverson 30.7 4.5
2003-04 Tracy McGrady 28 7.7
2002-03 Tracy McGrady 32.1 6
2001-02 Allen Iverson 31.4 4.5
2000-01 Allen Iverson 31.1 4.3
1999-00 Shaquille O’Neal 29.7 0
1998-99 Allen Iverson 26.8 4.1
1997-98 Michael Jordan 28.7 1.5
1996-97 Michael Jordan 29.6 3.6

-In his first 10 games last season, Steph Curry had 333 total points and had attempted 110 threes, making 52 of them. In his first 10 games this season, DeMar DeRozan has 332 points and has attempted 19 threes, making five.

-DeRozan’s 332 total points are the sixth-most scored by any player in the three-point era through his team’s first 10 games.

-DeRozan has taken more tightly guarded shots than any other player in the league. Of his 245 field-goal attempts, 181 have been taken with a defender within four feet of him, what NBA.com classifies as “tight” or “very tight” D. He’s hit 54.1 percent of those shots.

-He’s also taken more long twos facing tight or very tight defence than any other player: 107 outside of 10 feet. He’s made 60 of them, which math tells me is 56.1 percent. Bananas.

-He’s taking 12 mid-range shots per game (2.9 more than any other player). He’s making 50 percent of those looks, second among players who’ve taken at least five mid-range looks a game (Carmelo’s first, taking 7.4 and making 54.1 percent).

-That 50-percent clip is also 10.6 percent above league average.

And he’s been a monster at the rim, hitting 61.4 percent of the shots he’s taken in the restricted area.

Bravo, sir.

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