The Toronto Raptors are saying all the right things in advance of their Eastern Conference semi-final matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
“I’m just optimistic because it’s a different year,” all-star point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. “… This is 2017, that was 2016. It’s a whole different year. That’s why I’m optimistic.”
Said Raptors coach Dwane Casey: “You’re not going to stop a LeBron James one-on-one but we have extra bodies now that can stay in front of him and watch him. So [it’s] a better matchup and I think we’re better equipped for playoff basketball with those two additions.”
If you’re a Raptors fan, this is exactly the level of confidence you want to hear from a team going into a playoff series against the defending champs. The Raptors are coming into their clash with the Cavaliers with a swagger to them they’ve never yet shown and it should serve them well. The team should believe it can win or else what’s the point in even showing for Game 1?
Where Toronto has found this self-assurance, however, would make for a far more interesting story because, based on what we saw in that first round, there’s little to suggest the Raptors will actually be able to make a return to the conference final. Here’s three reasons why.
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Deceptive defensive numbers
Probably the most popular reason a lot are citing how the Raptors are going to beat LeBron and Co. four times out of seven, there’s no denying that the Cavaliers’ regular-season defence was bad. The 108.0 points per 100 possessions they allowed saw them finish 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency and was mostly spurred on by the 111.1 points per 100 possessions they gave up after the all-star break.
Compared to the 104.9 points per 100 possessions, overall, and 102.3 points per 100 possessions after the all-star break the Raptors gave up, it’s logical to think Toronto has a big edge because in addition to being able to score it can stop opposing teams and Cleveland can’t, right?
It’s not that simple.
Taking a look over at the playoff numbers you will see the Raptors are playing the second-best defence so far, only allowing 100.7 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland is ranked 13 out of 16 teams with a 111.0 defensive rating. This is where the illusionary spell is cast.
The Raptors’ defensive rating looks the way it does primarily because they played against the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that played competent but not outstanding offence this season, finishing ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. So, while the Raptors’ defence did certainly play a part in their series, full credit can’t go to the D because they weren’t facing a juggernaut offence like they’re about to see.
As for Cleveland, yes, all empirical evidence suggests this is a squad that wouldn’t be able to get a stop to save their families’ lives but that too may also be a misconception. Don’t believe me? Ask Casey.
“I’ve seen a lot of possessions where they turn [their defensive pressure] on,” the Raptors coach said. “Whether it’s blitzing, switching – because Tristan Thompson gives them an opportunity to switch a lot. Also the blitzing – the way they blitzed Paul George – so all those things we should be prepared for. …
“At the end of the day they’re still a good defensive team when they flip the switch.”
This may well just be coach-speak with Casey giving cordial credit to his opponent, but it’s also kind of his job to pick up on the kind of things that the numbers may just be hiding. So if he’s worried about the Cavs’ defence being able to turn it on it probably has some real weight to it.
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Offensive worries
“You’ve gotta score to keep up with them,” Casey said. “It’s gonna be a higher-scoring series than it was in Milwaukee.”
Quite the understatement from the Raptors coach, but still a point well made. The Raptors are facing the league’s third-best offence, one that put up 110.9 points per 100 possessions and 115.9 in their four game sweep of the Indiana Pacers.
From what was just seen in their series with the Bucks, this could be a bit problem for the Raptors as they were held to 101.5 points per 100 possessions across their six games, shooting a porous 43.7 per cent from the field. To make matters worse, it isn’t like Milwaukee’s a particularly great defensive unit (it finished 19th in defensive efficiency).
The Raptors’ two losses and near-collapse in Game 6 best signify their apparent offensive struggles. In that Game 1 loss they shot a horrendous 36 per cent from the field and only managed 83 points. In their embarrassing Game 3 defeat, the Dinos shot an even-worse 33.8 per cent and took them two full quarters just to crack 30 points en route to a pathetic 77-point showing.
Lastly, while the Game 6 victory came with it a lot of good vibes, how can you just forget this team actually did blow a 25-point lead and won on the back of Giannis-Antetokounmpo missed free throws because they managed just seven points in a 14-minute, 11-second span between the third and fourth quarters.
Toronto’s been labouring on offence since the all-star break. What was once a formidable fourth-ranked attack dropped to 13th after the all-star festivities, making the team’s sixth-ranked offensive rating on the season to be misleading.
There are reasons for the offensive difficulties, of course. Integrating two new bodies in Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker while also dealing with the loss of a key rotation player in Terrence Ross, in addition to playing the majority of the second half without Lowry made the offence hard to fully come together.
Even now, this is a team still figuring out how to play with each other. Unfortunately, they don’t have the luxury of time because Cleveland’s offence is relentless. Like Casey said, this is a series where the Raptors will have to score to win, and right now it doesn’t look they’re very capable of doing that at a rate that will allow them to do that, no matter how bad Cleveland’s defence supposedly is.
Which Lowry will show up?
If the Raptors are going to beat the Cavaliers they’re going to need a lot more from Lowry than what he showed against the Bucks.
This may not be an entirely fair statement since he’s dealing with a bad back and has only played 10 games (playoffs included) since being out 21 games recovering from wrist surgery, but going from averaging 22.4 points and 7.0 assists per game on 41.2 per cent shooting from three-point range to 14.3 points and 5.2 assists on 28.1 per cent shooting from deep is, frankly, unacceptable.
Toronto was able to get away with it mostly because DeMar DeRozan has kept up his all-star form and Norman Powell has been hotter than the sun ever since being inserted into the starting lineup, but he will eventually normalize and to beat Cleveland DeRozan’s going to need his backcourt-mate firing on all cylinders again – something that isn’t looking like it’ll come anytime soon at the moment.
Lowry’s playoff struggles have been well documented over the years and while he’s played better in 2017 despite the back issue it still isn’t up to snuff and gives cause to questions over whether he’s a clutch post-season performer. He’s had flashes of brilliance, but, overall, his playoff star has been dimmer more often than not.
If this trend continues there’s not much hope for the Raptors against Cleveland.
