The 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup groups were determined in Shenzhen, China on Saturday morning during the event’s official draw.
As is the case with almost any draw like this, some teams definitely appeared to fare better than others because of where they were placed in the competition. And though the games won’t begin until Aug. 31 and a lot can change with rosters and whatnot, there are some things we can glean from the draw.
Here are the winners and losers from the FIBA World Cup draw.
The @fiba World Cup groups are set. Do you like Canada’s chances of topping the group? (: @canadabasketball)
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LOSERS
Canada
While you’d normally start with "winners", there’s no bigger storyline that came from the draw then how badly Canada appear to have made out.
After spending nearly two full years doing its best to not just qualify for the World Cup but to make a concerted effort to finish as the top team in the Americas qualifiers in point differential, Canada Basketball was rewarded with a draw into the Group of Death.
The Group H that world-ranked No. 23 Canada will play out of to begin the World Cup features Lithuania (No. 6), Australia (No. 11) and Senegal (No. 37). Like Canada, Lithuania and Australia were top finishers in their respective World Cup qualifier groups, while Senegal was an impressive runner-up to Nigeria, currently the best African basketball nation.
None of the four teams in Group H can be happy about the situation they’ve been drawn into, especially because, objectively, the group is far and away the toughest with an average world ranking of 19.25.
By comparison, the next toughest is Group B, which has an average ranking of 20. However, Group B’s situation is very different to Group H’s because it clearly features a pair of powerhouse clubs in Argentina and Russia.
This is an important distinction because only the top two finishers in the group will reach the second round of the tournament, whereas the bottom two will be forced into a classification round of matches for places 17 to 32.
This is bad news for Canada and the rest of Group H because, with the level of quality in the group, a good team could risk not only failing to advance in the World Cup, but to also miss out on its Olympic shot.
Remember, the Tokyo 2020 Olympic tournament’s qualification feeds heavily out of the World Cup’s results. In Canada’s case, it would need be one of the two best Americas-region finishers in China or be among the top-16 next-best teams that don’t get automatic Olympic berths from the tournament in order to earn a spot into a last-chance Olympic qualifier next year, lest they want to rely on getting a special invite from FIBA for one of those Olympic qualifying tournament spots.
In all of these cases, a first-round exit – even from a very, very tough group – would greatly hinder Canada’s chances at an Olympic berth.
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Nigeria
This was mentioned before, but Nigeria is, right now, the best African nation.
That didn’t mean much in the draw, however, as Nigeria got the short end of the stick by being placed into a strong Group B with No. 5 Argentina and No. 10 Russia.
The harshness of only two teams advancing to the second round is full frontal for both Nigeria and Korea in Group B as we could easily see both Argentina and Russia reaching the quarterfinals of the tournament and beyond.
The sting will likely more greatly be felt by Nigeria, however, because the African region doesn’t get as much attention as the Asian one does and, optically, it’s unfortunate the region’s best representative is probably going straight to the bottom-feeding classification round.
Turkey/Czech Republic
Both Turkey and the Czech Republic are teams that are good enough to reach the second round.
Unfortunately, only one of them is likely going to make it as they both play in Group E with the mighty United States.
The fourth team in Group E, Japan, is an up-and-coming program but not yet at the quality of the two European squads that will be in for a dogfight with each other and may well just burn out the side that does end up reaching Round 2.
It’s unfortunate, but that’s just the reality when you’re in a group with the U.S.
WINNERS
China
The host-nation China rather surreptitiously ended up in what is by far the weakest group of the tournament.
Featuring an average group ranking of 34.75, China could very well make it out of Group A as it should be able to go toe-to-toe with both Poland and Venezuela evenly and will definitely be favoured against the Ivory Coast.
Another thing to consider is the hometown crowd. Chinese fans across all sports are fiercely loyal and with the team playing in the nation’s capital, China should have overwhelming emotional support to help them when things get tough in games.
Spain
The No. 2-ranked Spaniards were given a gift in the draw as they’re the only European team in Group C.
An important fact to remember is that, like soccer, European nations are also generally very strong at basketball and, because they play each other so often, they are quite familiar with how to counter each other.
Spain won’t have to worry about that in the first round unlike other European powers such as Serbia and France.
Yes, Puerto Rico is a talented team, but Spain should be a cut above and if things go the way they look on paper, the Spaniards should be able to remain relatively fresh heading into Round 2.
Montenegro
A winner not because their group is advantaged for them – it’s not – but more so because of a cool milestone.
This year’s World Cup will be the first time Montenegro has ever participated and as such should be considered a huge step forward for the program ever since the nation split from Serbia and Montenegro.
The entire region of the world that used to make up the former Yugoslavia has always had a strong basketball tradition, and while it’s taken a little time, the fact Montenegro is in the World Cup should serve notice that those old hooper roots are still strong.
And while it’s a nice story that Montenegro is in the tournament, they won’t just be happy to be there. Led by Orlando Magic all-star Nikola Vucevic, Montenegro could be a dark-horse candidate to play spoiler for one of Greece or Brazil in Group F.
