Editors’ note: An earlier version of this article was published before reports of Lakers roster changes surfaced. It has since been updated to reflect those transactions.
NBA free agency is about possibilities, a chance for franchises to look at a list of names and see a future full of divergent paths.
There’s wonder to be found in that, and hope. But potential can also be heavy. When it comes time to turn the idea of what’s possible into a tangible, on court product, pressure mounts.
Here’s a look at the four teams with the most weight on their shoulders heading into NBA free agency.
The Toronto Raptors and the ‘He Stay’ dilemma
A year focused on ensuring his health, a trade deadline re-load engineered to give him the best chance to win now, a playoff run filled with indelible moments, an NBA Finals that turned basketball into monoculture for a hockey country, a parade the entire city attended.
Toronto had one season to pitch Kawhi Leonard on why he should stay. They could not have done more. Still, rumours swirl about Leonard’s interest in returning to Southern California to play for the Los Angeles Clippers and, more recently, the Philadelphia 76ers.
With Marc Gasol opting into his $25.5 million player option for next year and Danny Green publicly expressing his desire to return as well, the potential, temptation and pressure to run it back will mount the closer the calendar marches to July 1.
Leonard’s decision, though, remains the tipping point. Re-signing Leonard re-inserts the Raptors into title contender conversations. Him choosing elsewhere likely cascades into rebuilding around a Pascal Siakam-centric future.
The Los Angeles Lakers and The King’s empty chessboard
In pairing LeBron James with Anthony Davis, the Lakers immediately set their absolute-ceiling to NBA Championship. Reaching that ceiling is a thornier proposition.
Beyond that starry pair, the roster is barren.
Optimists can point to Los Angeles’ cap space as reason to believe it will be rounded out by opening night. With Davis reportedly waiving his $4-million trade kicker and the Lakers reportedly moving Mo Wagner, Isaac Bonga and Jemerrio Jones to the Wizards, Hollywood’s home team will have $32 million worth of cap to fill.
A compelling case can be made that pursuing high-value role players would offer the best chance at success, Los Angeles’s history, though, suggests they’ll still chase stars.
There are plenty of options: Kemba Walker reportedly emerged as a target immediately following the Davis deal; Kyrie Irving reuniting with James to lead L.A. back to glory would be a Hollywood-worthy story line; Al Horford regressed last season for the Boston Celtics but could excel as a screen-first, pass-second, shoot-rarely third-option; Tobias Harris has less name-recognition than most top-end free agents but at age 26, he fits Davis’ career-timeline and showed in Philadelphia he can thrive with fewer touches.
Pessimists, though, can point to the last time the Lakers had cap space to sign a combination of stars and complementary pieces for James — last off-season — and wound up with Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, JaVale McGee and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Everything is possible. The 2020 season may end with a 17th banner being raised in L.A., or it may end as another wasted season in the twilight of James’ prime. Those are the stakes. No team faces a bigger chasm between their ceiling and floor heading into free agency.
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The Golden State Warriors and the cost of prolonging a dynasty
There’s a price that comes with being the best.
After opting out of his $31.5 million player option, Kevin Durant assumed the role of sun at the centre of the free agent universe — the long-term future of the league revolving around his eventual decision. Despite his ruptured Achilles tendon, Durant will likely still command max-contract offers from teams like the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets — the most commonly rumoured destinations — because, simply, players of his calibre are always worth the risk.
The Warriors will likely be in the conversation as well because they can offer him a max-contract that would pay him $50 million when he’s 35 years old, a stable comfort for a player whose long-term health and performance are both unknown.
Golden State’s off-season doesn’t end there, though. Klay Thompson is a free agent as well and re-signing him to anything near the five-year, $189.6 million max-contract he’s eligible for — as has been rumoured they will despite him being sidelined for a significant portion of the year with a torn ACL — would rocket them over the cap and into the luxury tax for a third-straight season.
After Thompson and Durant, the team has depth questions to answer with DeMarcus Cousins, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell, Andrew Bogut and Jonas Jerebko all pending-free agents too.
Letting Thompson and Durant walk frees up $20.8 million in cap space and ends the dynasty. Signing either of them ties up cap in players who won’t see the court for the majority of the season. Add in bodies to round out the roster and the bill becomes exorbitant.
Teams who pay the luxury tax in three of the previous four seasons must also pay a repeater tax. That means, if the Warriors bring the integral parts of last year’s roster back, the combined cost of keeping the band together could exceed $300 million by next summer — when they’ll have to contend with Draymond Green‘s expiring contract as well.
The price of being the best, it turns out, is an awful lot.
The Houston Rockets and the crisis of the always closing window
Windows for elite teams to win are fickle — deceivingly open until they abruptly close. In a not too distant past, the Durant, James Harden, Russel Westbrook led Oklahoma City Thunder were going to rule the 2010’s.
Harden’s post-Thunder team find themselves staring at the same fundamental question: How do you make good on the apex of your transcendent talent?
Houston’s past strategy has hinged on finding stars to pair with Harden. First came Dwight Howard which, in a word, failed. Then came Chris Paul, who worked well enough that they offered him a four-year contract that could pay Paul $44.2 million as a 36-year-old. Now, they are reportedly interested in recruiting Jimmy Butler.
The Philadelphia 76ers — Butler’s current team who came within four bounces of the Eastern Conference Final — face a similar dilemma in trying to re-sign all of Butler, Harris and J.J. Reddick to maximize their time with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid under contract.
Whether it’s with Butler or not, Paul’s time as a top-tier point guard will likely end before his contract and Harden’s run as a perennial top-two MVP candidate can’t be sustained indefinitely. Houston is on the clock.
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