The Raptors have wrestled home court advantage back, winning Game 3 in Miami in what was the team’s most well-rounded performance in the post-season. And it’s a good omen for the Raptors’ chances— historically, the team who wins the third game when a series is tied 1-1 goes on to win the series 74 per cent of the time.
Toronto now has the chance to get greedy and go back to Canada with a strangle hold on the series (only nine teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit), while a Raptors loss means they cross the border tied again at 2-2, turning the series into a best-of-three. The task will now be infinitely tougher without Jonas Valanciunas who has been ruled out of the Eastern Conference semifinals with a right ankle sprain. Valanciunas had 16 points, 12 rebounds shooting 7-12 field goals in just 22 minutes before being hurt in game three. He led the game in rebounds despite not finishing the game. Valanciunas had registered a double double in all three games against Miami, averaging 18.3 points and 12.7 rebounds on 64.9 shooting. As talented as Bismack Biyombo is defensively, it is unrealistic to think he alone could pick up that slack against the Heat. Which brings us to….
Raptors Key to the Game # 1: Find secondary scoring
Toronto only had three players score in double figures in Game 3 and with the offensively-limited Biyombo playing extra minutes in JV’s absence it’s even more important for the Raptors to find supplemental scoring on Monday night. DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson and Terrence Ross will all need to be more aggressive on the offensive end.
Raptors Key to the Game # 2: Keep Miami one-on-one
Dwyane Wade went off for 38 points on Saturday, but Toronto didn’t over-help and subsequently kept the rest of the Heat players in check in Game 3. To wit: Luol Deng and Goran Dragic combined for 16 points on 20 shots. Miami only had 11 assists as their offence was entirely focused on Dwyane Wade creating for himself off the dribble. Will Wade have the energy to continue to do that in Game 4 on Monday? The Raptors should benefit from staying home on everybody else and force Wade to try to win it by himself again.
Heat Key to the Game: Play big D while playing small
Toronto shot 10—12 in the second quarter of Game 3 after Hassan Whiteside left the game due to injury (a sprained MCL, he’s listed as day-to-day). Assuming he can’t play or is limited in Monday’s Game 4, Miami will have to find a way to get stops without their chief rim protector and shot-changer manning the paint. Udonis Haslem and Josh McRoberts will be logging big minutes down low with Bosh out for the playoffs and Whiteside hampered.
Raptors Player to Watch: Kyle Lowry
Lowry’s jump shot returned in Game 3, a tremendous sign for his team going forward. After struggling badly offensively throughout the playoffs, Lowry had Heat coach Erik Spoelstra searching for new ways to limit the Raptors point guard, including switching Wade on him defensively. It didn’t work— Lowry finished Game 3 with 33 points, shooting 11-19 from the floor and 5-8 from three. Without Valanciunas and the likelihood of both teams employing more small-ball lineups, Lowry will have to continue to be a volume scorer as he was for much of the regular season. He’ll play a major role on the defensive end as well, where Lowry will have to keep Dragic in front of him and out of the paint, particularly when Biyombo is off the floor and the Raps are devoid of a true rim protector.
Heat Player to Watch: Joe Johnson
Joe Johnson was just 4-11 in Game 3, scoring a paltry 10 points and missing a big three-pointer late in the 4th that would have changed the complexion of the game. Johnson is now 0-10 from three in the series. He’s obviously a player who has torched Toronto historically and will continue to log big minutes as both teams are forced to play smaller lineups for longer stretches. If Johnson continues to be anonymous in this series Miami will continue to labour offensively.
Key Stat
Toronto is now 6-0 in the playoffs when they keep their opponents under 100 points.
