One of the biggest concerns for the retooled Toronto Raptors entering the season was depth, particularly at small forward and center. With DeMarre Carroll now joining Jonas Valanciunas on the shelf, their depth is about to be weighed. Most likely, it will be found wanting.
Carroll was a surprise inactive as the Raptors hosted the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday, with the team revealing that Carroll has a right knee contusion. It’s something Carroll’s been playing through since banging knees with DeAndre Jordan on Nov. 22, but after he saw a specialist Monday it’s become clear he’ll be sidelined for an undetermined but potentially lengthy amount of time.
“Indefinitely. We’ll see. It’ll be a nice period of time,” Carroll said after Monday’s game.
The fact that Carroll’s been playing through the injury has been somewhat plain to see, as he received questions last week about his health amid struggles. Carroll hasn’t been playing poorly, necessarily, but he hasn’t been quite himself on the offensive end. While the self-styled Junkyard Dog 2.0 remains an effective spot-up shooter, he’s had trouble scoring in almost every other situation, according to Synergy data provided to Sportsnet.ca.
When the Raptors gave Carroll a four-year, $58-million deal this off-season, it was expected he would take on a larger role in the offence. That’s something he hasn’t been able to do, with his comfort level slow to grow in a far less catch-and-shoot-oriented offence than he’s accustomed to. The Raptors have been 12.3 points per 100 possessions better with Carroll on the bench, according to data from NBA.com, a number that understates his impact and speaks to him drawing the toughest defensive assignment each night, but one that also highlights that he hasn’t played up to his normal standard.
In that regard, the diagnosis forcing him to the sideline may be in his best interest and for the good of the team. It’s a long season, and with Carroll hesitant to pull himself from action when banged up, the Raptors would be well-served to use the injury as an opportunity to get him right, lest he be dealing with fatigue and minor issues come playoff time.
“Very frustrating,” Carroll said. “I just know myself—I’ll always want to get out there even if I’m hurt, but two and a half weeks playing hurt isn’t the best look. I think it’s just time for me to get back healthy, get back right and come back out and be the real Junkyard Dog.”
The fact that Carroll has bee playing at something less than 100 percent for most of the year doesn’t mean the Raptors won’t miss him. Much to the contrary—Carroll remains the team’s best perimeter defender, a versatile piece capable of helping check many different player types. The Raptors don’t have anything resembling a Swiss Army knife on defence, and each of the options to soak up Carroll’s minutes is flawed.
Despite his strong showing Monday, confidence in Terrence Ross is going to remain cautious. Even after his 22-point outburst, he’s averaging just 6.3 points on 37.5-percent shooting, and his defence remained inconsistent and, to be blunt, exploitable against the Lakers. Ross gets lost too easily in pick-and-roll coverage, putting undue pressure on help defenders and forcing a breakdown in rotations.
If he’s providing secondary scoring alongside Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, that’s easier to look past, and the Raptors are hoping additional playing time will shake Ross out of his season-long slump.
“He’s getting the confidence in his shot, that was the number-one thing,” head coach Dwane Casey said. “Offensively, he got a rhythm going and for a scorer like him, having extended minutes really helped him. Hopefully that gets him jump-started from the offensive end.”
Casey better hope he’s accurate in his assessment of Ross, because there’s a paucity of options behind him.
James Johnson acquitted himself well filling in when Carroll missed time with plantar fasciitis earlier in the year. But despite a desire to maintain role consistency as much as possible, Casey opted to bump Ross to the starting lineup this time around, saying it was a “next man up” situation. The reality is that Johnson seems to frustrate Casey with occasional mental errors when defending off the ball, and his lack of shooting makes him a tough fit with the starters.
It’s possible for NBA teams to play a small forward who can’t help space the floor, but doing so requires lineup luxuries the Raptors don’t have. Because DeRozan can’t shoot from outside, spacing gets tight when he and Johnson share the floor, and the team’s true shooting percentage drops by 2.1 percentage points. That’s even tougher to get away with when Bismack Biyombo is on the floor at center—the team’s offence loses 5.2 points per 100 possessions when he joins Johnson—because his defender is already ignoring him outside of three feet and doubling hard on the pick-and-roll.
The solution to the spacing issue Johnson presents is to pair him with Patrick Patterson, which allows Casey to invert the floor on offence. For the second year in a row, the Johnson-Patterson pairing has been effective, despite Patterson’s own shooting struggles, but it’s important to remember that most of those minutes come against opposing bench units. Casey will have to juggle his rotations carefully for Johnson, who is sure to see expanded minutes, but not starter’s minutes, in Carroll’s stead.
Norman Powell could see additional time, too, and played Monday for the first time since Nov. 18. A potential deep-bench spark plug, Powell brings the same spacing concerns as Johnson without the ability to guard threes and fours, limiting his utility as more than just a warning for Ross. Casey could also go to Anthony Bennett, but Bennett has been glued to the bench since Nov. 13 and has played poorly when called upon. Bruno Caboclo isn’t anywhere near ready.
What Casey absolutely can’t do is task Lowry and DeRozan with a greater workload. Small lineups are a necessity with Valanciunas hurt (and now Lucas Nogueira banged up), but the team’s starting backcourt is already overworked at 35.7 and 36.3 minutes per game, respectively. Even with a tough schedule coming up—the San Antonio Spurs visit Wednesday and the Raptors have a tough three-game road trip next week—the Raptors have to accept their limitations on the wing and take the lumps that are surely coming with Carroll shelved.