There are offensive struggles ahead for the Toronto Raptors. Following an MRI on his left calf, injured for the second time this season in the thrilling double overtime win over the Utah Jazz, Andrea Bargnani is officially out of the lineup for an indefinite period of time.
So now there are a bunch of questions. Was it an overuse type injury? Should the coach have been monitoring his minutes more carefully? Who replaces him? What happens to the offense? I think you get the idea.
Let’s look at the nature of the injury. I’m no doctor but I do know that fatigue and extensive use will eventually break things down, whether it’s a human body or a machine there are only so many reps before a problem is encountered and some part is working right. As hypothesized before, the shortened and compacted season commenced, it’s becoming a common occurrence around the NBA. Does head coach Dwane Casey have any culpability? In these eyes, the answer is no.
Bargnani was re-inserted into the line up with a clean bill of health after initially tweaking the calf against Minnesota. Upon his return there were no “conditions or limits” placed on him regarding usage and playing time. That meant he was healthy and ready to go.
For all the arm-chair coaches out there, I present the words of former New York Jets football coach Herman Edwards: “you play to win the game, you don’t play just to play it.”
The Raptors were locked up with Utah and I can guarantee if Casey had Bargnani sitting on the bench during key points late in the game, all the arm-chair coaches would be asking, “why isn’t Bargnani in the game? They need him now.” If you can see it, you can bet an NBA coach can.
Could you imagine the uproar had Casey answered a question in the post game news conference, win or lose, with words to the effect, “we wanted to monitor Andrea’s minutes and not over work him?” For that response, Casey would have been drowning in criticism. That’s akin to not using timeouts to compose your team when the other team is making a run and blowing you out saying, “I was saving them for the end of the game.” Yep, that’s good strategy, losing by 25 but you have three timeouts left because you thought it might be close at the end. Again, “you play to win the game.”
The Raptors will miss Bargnani both qualitatively and quantitatively. His presence opens the floor, creating driving and cutting lanes for other players in addition to stretching the floor and the opponent’s defence. He can play inside and outside depending on what choice an opposing coach selects regarding defending him.
But the numbers are staggering. At the time of this writing, there are exactly 15 players in the NBA, of which Bargnani is one, averaging more than 20 points per game. In terms of what he means to the Raptors, the numbers again speak loudly. In the two games since he has been back, albeit one in double overtime, Toronto has averaged 105 points per contest. Without him, only 81 and if you look at the percentage of the team’s offence that can be attributed to Bargnani, he is amongst some of the NBA elite.
Yes, part of it is because the team is offensively challenged but your top five NBA players in the percentage of the teams offense category reads as follows: 1. Kobe Bryant 32.6 per cent, 2. LeBron James 27.8 per cent, 3. Andrea Bargnani 26.9 per cent, 4. Kevin Love 26.4 per cent and 5. Kevin Durant 25.8 per cent.
So who steps in for him? Some of it will be dictated by matchups with opponents. But NBA coaches are prone to follow conventional wisdom that says operate with as close to a normal rotation as possible to cause the least possible disruption in player roles. After all, players are creatures of habit. Linas Kleiza and Ed Davis are the most likely candidates, with Kleiza trying to play the role of “poor man’s Bargnani.” He can stretch the floor and with the right matchup, play on the inside.
Davis will give some rebounding and interior defence but currently, his offence is not ready for “prime time” consistently. The coaches are working hard with him to refine his offensive skills. The lack of proper participation in not one, but two, full-length NBA training camps has hurt Davis’ development. The lockout also robbed him of the chance to play in a summer league against commensurate competition.
It will be interesting to see how Toronto fares without Bargnani, a guy who finally may have the right coach at the right time. With his recent play before the injuries, on both occasions, he had a coach that knows what it takes to win, suitably impressed. Gone is the phrase in Toronto, “right horse, wrong jockey.” But for now, the horse has been confined to the barn.