The NBA’s Feb. 7th trade deadline is looming, contenders are jockeying for position in the standings, and a handful of superstars are in the process of making history — while others are coming under question as their teams struggle.
Let’s take a look at some league-wide trends and takes to determine what is fact and what is fiction in the NBA.
The Toronto Raptors need to trade for a shooter
FICTION. The Raptors have no problem manufacturing three-point opportunities, and are certainly not shy about letting it fly from deep — a good strategy given the collective resume of their roster.
Heading into this week the Raptors ranked ninth in three-point attempts, yet sit just 24th in three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
It’s one of their few legitimate limitations and a worrisome number given that prior to the season starting the Raptors seemed poised to be a three-point juggernaut, particularly from the corners — probably the most coveted shooting spot on the floor for the obvious reasons that it’s the shortest three-point shot available and three points are more than two.
Here’s a chart from a story I wrote prior to the start of the season that shows just how potent this team appeared to be shooting the ball:
| Name | 3PM | 3PA | Percentage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Miles | 46 | 94 | 48.90% | 53.3% from left corner |
| Kyle Lowry | 33 | 69 | 47.80% | 58.3% from right corner |
| Kawhi Leonard* | 29 | 63 | 46% | 53% from left corner |
| Danny Green | 43 | 96 | 44.80% | 49% from right corner |
| Serge Ibaka | 20 | 45 | 44.40% | 50% from right corner |
| OG Anunoby | 47 | 107 | 43.90% | 50% from right corner |
| Fred VanVleet | 35 | 81 | 43.20% | 45.7% from right corner |
| Delon Wright | 14 | 34 | 41.10% | 47% from left corner |
*Note: Leonard’s stats are from 2016-17
Knowing what the Raptors’ shooters have accomplished in the past makes their struggles this season that much more infuriating.
But this year they’ve been middle of the pack from the corners, ranking just 19th in left corner threes and a more respectable 10th from the right corner. Overall, however, there’s no question they’ve been struggling. From everywhere else beyond the arc they’re 28th.
Danny Green is the only Raptor shooting above 40 per cent from beyond the arc, and a number of important long-range shooters are struggling mightily — after a scorching start, Kyle Lowry is now hitting just 31 per cent of his threes, Fred VanVleet is shooting 36 per cent (but it feels even lower), and, infamously, CJ Miles is at a career-worst 28 per cent.
While some fans are looking to the trade market to remedy the issue, it’s not nescessarily the only solution.
Did those players just become bad shooters, or can it be turned around? There aren’t a ton of realistic trade targets for the Raptors — Miami’s Wayne Ellington has been floated as one option — who, with precious few trade assets may be better off addressing things internally.
There have been signs of improvement as of late. Leonard is shooting 43 per cent from deep over his last five games as his game continues to return to form. Norman Powell can’t be relied upon as a three-point threat, but has shown flashes since returning from injury — including five games with two or more threes. OG Anunoby is shooting 40 per cent from deep since Christmas.
Miles appears to be on life support given how dramatically he’s struggled, but a few nights like Thursday’s performance against Phoenix — 13 points in 17 minutes — might be all it takes for the veteran to work back his confidence.
Should the right deal come along, of course you pull the trigger. But perhaps things can be salvaged with the players on the roster.
James Harden‘s offensive tear has reached historic levels
FACT. You didn’t need me to tell you this. Harden has been going off offensively since December, and he’s been the biggest talking point in basketball circles — for good reason. Currently averaging over 35 points on the season, Harden has been averaging a stunning 43.2 points per game since Chris Paul went down with injury on Dec. 20th. 43!
In his last two games he’s averaging 57.5 points and has taken at least 15 three-pointers in his last eight games. It’s so beyond anything we’ve seen before.
https://twitter.com/HoustonRockets/status/1085739115008557056
This story examining Harden’s ridiculous scoring surge helps to put those numbers in context, but, needless to say, a player has torched the mesh like this only a handful of times in NBA history. In the process it’s helped transform Harden from “obviously great but not fun to watch” to appointment viewing in the span of a month.
The Golden State Warriors are about to become more lethal than ever
FACT. Remember a month or two ago when there were concerns over the Warriors’ sudden fragility, their status as no-doubt-team-to-beat in question for the first time in years? That was silly.
After decimating the first-place Denver Nuggets earlier this week — including a 51-point first quarter — the Dubs reminded us of just how good they are. Steph Curry is on a tear, averaging 30 points since the start of December while hitting 44 per cent of his 12 three-point attempts per game in the process (read that again). Kevin Durant remains an all-time great offensive weapon, and Klay Thompson, after a slow start to the season, is hitting 49.5 per cent of his threes since the calendar turned.
Oh, and DeMarcus Cousins, the best big man in the game when he’s healthy, with a versatile skill-set that suggests he should be able to fit in just fine, is set to make his season debut Friday night. So, safe to say, the Warriors are as big a problem for the rest of the NBA as ever.
The Boston Celtics have a Kyrie Irving problem
FICTION. Prior to their big win over the Raptors on Wednesday, Celtics star Kyrie Irving was coming under question for his leadership skills after calling out his younger teammates to the press amid a rough stretch of ball for Boston.
The Celtics will be fine, and Irving remains their best asset — one of the five or 10 most purely talented players in the NBA. Their issues don’t lie at Irving’s feet, but instead in rotation and difficulty establishing a pecking order on a deep roster of players who warrant plenty of playing time and a featured role.
Nikola Jokic is the best passing big man…ever
FACT. Statistically, at least, this is indisputable. No centre has ever averaged seven or more assists per game in a season, and Jokic is currently at 7.6 assists per game and showing no signs of slowing down.
According to basketball-reference, there have only been seven NBA seasons in which a centre averaged five or more assists per game — and the top two belong to Jokic, who sits above Alvan Adams, DeMarcus Cousins, Jeff Ruland, Wes Unseld, and Bill Walton.
There are worthy contenders for the title. Wilt Chamberlain famously led the league in assists one season, and some will claim that perhaps Euroleague legend Arvydas Sabonis deserves it, but we never got to see him near his prime at the NBA level. Yet as much as the stats support Jokic, the eye test returns glowing results as well:
Derrick Rose deserves an all-star spot
FICTION. The latest batch of all-star voting results, revealed on Thursday, have Rose second only to Curry among guards in the West.
Sure, Rose’s 51-point game earlier this season made headlines, and, after looking like a corpse in Cleveland last season, the 30-year-old former MVP has certainly blown away expectations by averaging 18.8 points per game this season. But all-star? No thank you.
Rose has turned his career around, sure, but he’s still just the sixth man on a mediocre Minnesota team that is currently under .500 and likely to miss the playoffs. And, needless to say, his comeback narrative sure seems to be fogging over major points of his story.
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