The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have a lot in common.
Both teams share a similar offensive identity, predicated around ball movement that overwhelms opponents, and both have extremely versatile personnel.
As a result of all of this, the advantages they’ve both enjoyed over other teams won’t be as pronounced in this series because they’re both trying to accomplish the same things with a pair of rosters that are so evenly matched they almost neutralize each other.
It is because of the overall similarities between the two clubs that individual matchups in these Finals are so fascinating, as taking a look at them in greater detail can expose the points where advantages on either side truly lie.
Point Guard
This hinges on Tony Parker not being hampered by the ankle injury that forced him out of the second half of the Spurs’ Western Conference Final-clinching Game 6, but if Parker is able to go, don’t expect Mario Chalmers to do much against him.
If the much bigger and quicker Russell Westbrook couldn’t keep Parker in front of him and out of the paint, what hope does Chalmers have? The Spurs need to exploit this matchup to the fullest as it’s their most lopsided.
Even defensively Parker won’t have much of an issue because he won’t have to worry about Chalmers trying to break him down off the dribble. The only way the Miami point guard is going to do any damage in the series is with three-point shooting. Therefore, as long as Parker doesn’t get caught on screens and stays with him, there’s absolutely nothing to fear.
Advantage Spurs
Shooting Guard
As the playoffs have gone on, Dwyane Wade’s level of play of has continued to pick up, with his scoring average and field-goal percentage increasing from series-to-series.
Expect more of the same from the 11-year veteran in the Finals as the defensive pressure he’ll be receiving from Danny Green and Manu Ginobili won’t be anywhere near the level the Pacers’ Lance Stephenson applied.
Wade may not be the athlete he once was but as he’s grown older, he’s certainly become craftier in his screen usage and drives to the bucket, meaning he still puts a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing defences.
Fortunately for the Spurs, however, their shooting guard platoon of Green and Ginobili will make Wade work just as hard on the defensive side of the ball.
Green’s breakout Finals performance last year should still be fresh in the minds of the Heat. The way he moves without the ball will force Wade to navigate through screens all night long to keep up with him. Ginobili, on the other hand, can give you that three-point look but will more often be looking to drive and even though Wade can stay with him laterally, Ginobili’s ability to contort his body always seems to draw fouls on whoever’s guarding him—something Wade must avoid.
There isn’t a clear winner in this matchup as either side’s two-guards are liable to go off and win a game by themselves. However, given the dual threat the Spurs enjoy, and the superior three-point shooting from Green and Ginobili, the slight edge must go to San Antonio.
Advantage Spurs
Small Forward
The most important matchup in the series is the battle between LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard.
If Parker isn’t fully healthy, Leonard will likely need to step up and be San Antonio’s best player, as he has the quickness, shot-making ability and athleticism to wreak havoc on Miami’s defence.
More important than his offence, however, is the impact Leonard must have defensively, guarding the best player in the series (and, you know, the world).
James has been a wrecking ball this post-season, averaging 27.1 points per game on 56.2 percent shooting to go along with 6.8 rebounds and five assists for a playoff-leading PER of 31.22. In other words, absolutely no one has been able to slow the King down.
Leonard certainly has the size, strength, athleticism and lateral quickness to affect James, but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be able to stop him. On the flip side, James’s defence on Leonard could completely shut him down and, in the process, demoralize the Spurs.
As good as Leonard is—and has been this post-season—he simply isn’t close to the class that James is in.
Advantage Heat
Power Forward
Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward to ever play the game and he’ll have a clear advantage over anybody guarding him down low, but the problem at the four spot for San Antonio remains the same as last year: Just how long will Duncan be able to stay on the floor?
Shane Battier and the suddenly resurgent Rashard Lewis are both knock-down three-point shooters who will stretch Duncan out to the perimeter on defence, leaving the Spurs without a proper rim protector.
Buckets will come easy for Duncan with those two on him, but the Heat are likely willing to concede that and only double on occasion, where they’ve proven time and again they have the capability to recover quickly and not give up open triples.
With that said, getting beat up inside is no fun, and Duncan could very well put the Heat into foul trouble as there’s no one on Miami capable of stopping him on the block and on the glass.
Advantage Spurs
Centre
Chris Bosh at the five is often a nightmare for opposing centres because of his quickness and touch from the mid-range out. Against the Spurs, however, Bosh’s advantages are significantly lessened by the presence of Boris Diaw.
San Antonio divides minutes pretty evenly between Diaw and Tiago Splitter, but the Frenchman is the more likely choice against Bosh because he can do everything the Miami big can.
Diaw has Swiss Army versatility. He’s comfortable guarding on the perimeter and in the post and he’s capable of effectively occupying both spaces on offence as well. When compared to Bosh, he’s actually a little more polished because of the wicked vision and passing ability that enable him to play a little point forward for the Spurs at times.
But while it’s true Diaw is a great option against Bosh, he also, ultimately, isn’t as talented. This matchup, like the James-Leonard one, is of the utmost importance in this series, and when the players in question are so evenly weighted, it really has to come down to individual talent.
Advantage Heat
Bench
Both teams’ bench mobs are strong and deep, with San Antonio’s being unique in that, due to the minutes they play, there aren’t really hard rotations in place to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
The Heat’s supporting cast, on the other hand, all play specific roles. By now we all know what Ray Allen can do, Norris Cole is a strong perimeter defender who may even end up as the primary guy on Parker and Chris Anderson’s time will be mostly spent on Duncan.
San Antonio’s reserves aren’t nearly as defensively focused, with the likes of Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli coming off the pine just to put the ball in the basket.
The two sides do lean heavily on their benches, but given the Spurs’ general game plan, the better bench belongs to San Antonio.
Advantage Spurs
Coaching
Gregg Popovich is undoubtedly the best coach in the NBA, and tends to get the acclaim he rightfully deserves.
Erik Spoelstra, on the hand, seems never to get his due, being seen as merely a side product of the Big Three’s brilliance—something that’s absolutely false.
Of course talent is needed to win, but it isn’t everything. Spoelstra took the excellent raw material that was handed to him and forged it into a deadly weapon. He is the man responsible for the Heat’s destructive small ball scheme, with all of the decoy pick-and-rolls and whizzing ball movement that have unleashed James and allowed him to reach his full potential.
When it’s firing on all cylinders, the Heat’s offence is poetry in motion and that’s all thanks to Spoelstra’s design. So even though Popovich is the better of the two bench bosses, this matchup is a lot more even than most would like to think.
Advantage Spurs